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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsRepublicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-last-ditch-hope-to-stop-donald-trump/If its not obvious by now, a ship called the Republican Party is perilously close to being hijacked by a populist pirate named Donald Trump. At the last three ports of call New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada Trump overpowered his rivals, even capturing all 50 of the Palmetto States delegates. Armed with a blue-collar following, Trump could continue to win majorities of delegates without winning majorities of voters, and if he does, he could become unstoppable in as soon as three weeks.
Yet there is still a possibility, albeit a narrowing one, that Marco Rubio could turn the tide and ultimately win more delegates than Trump even if he wins fewer overall primary votes.
Rubios increasingly tenuous path depends on his ability to win a series of winner-take-all states with high proportions of white-collar, college-educated Republicans, most critically his home state of Florida on March 15. Rubios path may also depend on his ability to claim delegates from low-turnout territories like Puerto Rico (which, amazingly, will select the same number of delegates as New Hampshire despite having a fraction of the GOP voters) as well as blue-leaning congressional districts with few GOP voters but many available delegates, such as those in Chicago, Maryland and coastal California.
In each instance, Rubio might hope to win large delegate margins with relatively small raw vote margins, while Trump wins far more votes elsewhere but reaps more modest delegate payoffs raising the prospect of an unusual split votes/delegates verdict enabled by the GOPs uneven delegate allocation rules.
Yet there is still a possibility, albeit a narrowing one, that Marco Rubio could turn the tide and ultimately win more delegates than Trump even if he wins fewer overall primary votes.
Rubios increasingly tenuous path depends on his ability to win a series of winner-take-all states with high proportions of white-collar, college-educated Republicans, most critically his home state of Florida on March 15. Rubios path may also depend on his ability to claim delegates from low-turnout territories like Puerto Rico (which, amazingly, will select the same number of delegates as New Hampshire despite having a fraction of the GOP voters) as well as blue-leaning congressional districts with few GOP voters but many available delegates, such as those in Chicago, Maryland and coastal California.
In each instance, Rubio might hope to win large delegate margins with relatively small raw vote margins, while Trump wins far more votes elsewhere but reaps more modest delegate payoffs raising the prospect of an unusual split votes/delegates verdict enabled by the GOPs uneven delegate allocation rules.
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Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump (Original Post)
KamaAina
Feb 2016
OP
JustAnotherGen
(31,823 posts)1. If Rubio were to promise
Something to Ted Cruz - and get him to drop out - he would grab his supporters. I'm still trying to figure out what he promised Christie to get him to give him his list of supporters.
TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)2. Veep? AG? But, Rubio is only slightly less terrifying...
than Cruz or Trump.
JustAnotherGen
(31,823 posts)3. AG or Scotus
He needs an old white guy as a running mate. Kasich - or - maybe Huntsman will take pity on his scandalous pass? Cruz I think has a female lobbyist problem in the wings. He's out.