Juan Cole: Mystery: Russia and Hizbullah Begin Withdrawal From Syria

[eridani]

http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/277-75/35757-mystery-russia-and-hizbullah-begin-withdrawal-from-syria

Al-Hayat is careful to note that Putin says that the Russian naval base at Tartus and the new Russian air base nearby will continue to be in play, and that Putin did not announce a complete withdrawal. It appears to me that Russia will still be in a position to intervene strategically against any rebel group that makes sudden progress against regime forces. It will also continue to provision the Syrian Arab Army with powerful munitions.

At the same time, Reports emerged in Beirut that hundreds of Hizbullah fighters are also withdrawing from Syria, returning to the Dahiya district of east Beirut.

Apparently Putin feels that he has accomplished his main goal in Syria, which was to shore up the Syrian government and prevent it from falling to the rebels. The key Latakia province in the northwest has been cleared of al-Qaeda and other rebel groups, ensuring that the southern capital, Damascus, can be provisioned. The rebels have been pushed back from Hama and Homs.

Another of the Russian goals was to weaken al-Qaeda (the Support Front or Jabhat al-Nusra), which had attracted Russian Muslim fighters from the Caucasus.

To go further with intensive Russian air strikes would risk quagmire, since a guerrilla movement cannot be defeated from the air, even if it can be hurt.

You have to wonder, since Putin called Obama, whether he has not secured from the US a pledge to cease sending TOW anti-tank munitions and other deadly weapons to the rebels, in return for standing down.

The Syrian Arab Army of Bashar al-Assad was on the verge of taking west Aleppo when the UN cessation of hostilities was implemented. That move would have resulted in a horrible slaughter and reprisals by the regime against the people of those quarters. Likewise, before the Russian intervention the possibility of an al-Qaeda conquest and massacre of the Alawites of Latakia loomed large.

[yourpaljoey]

1. Well played