The Economist dubs Trump a ‘global risk factor’ — but not for the reasons you might think

[jpak]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/17/the-economist-dubs-trump-a-global-risk-factor-but-not-for-the-reasons-you-might-think/

In the most recent iteration of its global risk forecast, Economist magazine warns of the threats posed by a number of possible world events. If the Chinese economy were to slow down significantly — which it calls a "high probability" — the effects could be wide-ranging. That's the biggest risk. At the other end of the range is the long-term risk posed by lower investment in oil production. That's a risk, but less of one. And in the middle of the 10-item list, something of a different nature: "Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election."

The risk posed by Trump's election is scored a 12, versus the 4 scored by oil investment and the 20 scored by a faltering China. Trump's 12 — described by the magazine as a "moderate probability, high impact" risk — is equal to another item on the list, "The rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizes the global economy." That also scores a 12.

To put a fine point on it: Economist sees a Trump election as an equivalent global risk to terrorism destabilizing the world economy.

It's important to remember, though, the lens through which the magazine is looking at this. Trump's a risk not because of the violence that has swirled around his rallies or because of his rapidly evolving policy positions — at least not primarily. He's a risk because he hates free trade.

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[B2G]

1. Look, I'm no Trump fan, but

The Economist endorses the TPP, so I don't hold much stock in their position on trade.

[mwooldri]

2. Not just free trade....

He'd be a mess in the Middle East too.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35828747

"His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East and ban on all Muslim travel to the US would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond," the EIU added.

He's also the leading topic on today's World Have Your Say programme on World Service radio.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03m34f7

[pampango]

3. Many are worried that he will abrogate all kinds of agreements and go 'strongman'

taking unilateral action to do whatever he wants against other countries.

Trade under no rules or under "Trump" rules dos not appeal to many countries on the modern world. The same applies to other global concerns. He wants no coordinated action on climate change, immigration, labor rights, etc. - just America being 'great' again and doing whatever it wants. The rest of the world be damned.