General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPrediction time: The Democrat Could Carry 46 States
As the Republican Party is strategizing to stop Donald Trump, the Conservative Wing of the party is preparing to run a third party candidate if Trump does win the Republican nomination. They may settle on Scott Walker.
If that's the case, Hillary Clinton, the most likely Democratic nominee, will carry nearly every state in the union. By the way, I love Bernie (but voted for Hillary) and I can't ignore the obvious or the danger of not uniting in this very dangerous time.
Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida and every swing state. A solid win in every state carried by Obama. Carry the Senate and pick up House seats. This could be a defining moment in American Political History.
Link to Boston Globe Story:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2016/03/19/republican-leaders-map-strategy-derail-trump/OPDfHnTzJJltOBia88puVK/story.html
emsimon33
(3,128 posts)It will make 2014 look like a win for Democrats.
riversedge
(70,310 posts)lamp_shade
(14,844 posts)bullimiami
(13,105 posts)Laser102
(816 posts)Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)Orrex
(63,225 posts)I'm pretty sure that her election will call down an asteroid strike
Lo! The Hand of God will wipe clean the face of the Earth in advance of evil Hillary's ascendancy.
Itchinjim
(3,085 posts)Sheesh.
L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)Imagine if everyone posting had to self identify, say real name and Democratic party membership number .... how quiet this forum would be. Where would the trolls find new jobs?
Itchinjim
(3,085 posts)Its nothing compared to 2016. This place is crawling with RW trolls
L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)Orrex
(63,225 posts)Dawgs
(14,755 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)Response to emsimon33 (Reply #1)
anothergreenbus This message was self-deleted by its author.
dmm80
(38 posts)turnout problem. I doubt her lack of energy will motivate voters. The other side have a shitload of voters. If Hillary doesn't fix this problem soon, the only thing that'll be inevitable is her defeat. The Hill side should understand that it'll take more than "blind faith" and media bias to fix this.
L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)The Apocalypse?
lark
(23,158 posts)Trump, conservative Repug and Dem, Dem wins every time, even with HRC. The only way Dems don't win is if HRC is indicted at the last minute and the party can't get Biden (or Bernie?) on the ballot. Think you are letting your anger at her corporatism blind you to reality.
Always Randy
(1,060 posts)PATRICK
(12,228 posts)Trump is not making deals with insiders, yet. Ironically the Koch's may also be backing Tea Party candidates Trump would be using to threaten the establishment. Now I can appreciate their headache and their spinning from one losing strategy to another, or are they trying to save the whole Tea party debacle from a Trump loss by "saving" the GOP and hijacking the... what should we call it?..whole apparatus.
Parties have split like this before, such as the Democrats(Secessionist/Unionist) splitting to insure the election of Lincoln. That did not work out well at all for them or the country, but the current GOP doesn't give a sh*t about consequences. However, in these more milquetoast times I expect some accommodation/compromise/surrender will be made to maximize success. Nor does any third party seem to promise anything more than venting valves that would really change the result. Downticket panic is what they must avoid, thus no split even though primary challenges are doing that anyway.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)He makes the best deals ever! Etc.
Lurker Deluxe
(1,039 posts)Certainly no defense of Trump, but making a deal is best done from a position of strength. Up until recently the powers that be thought they had no reason to "deal" with Trump. The stronger he gets the better position he is in to make a deal.
I am sure he knows this, as vile as he is ... he is not stupid.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)riversedge
(70,310 posts)rogerashton
(3,920 posts)is already running and will most probably be nominated by the Libertarians.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027693043
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)rogerashton
(3,920 posts)he is a more "plausible" candidate than either of the Republican leaders.
Remember how, a year ago, a Trump nomination was inconceivable?
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)but it will still be < 5% of the total vote.
rogerashton
(3,920 posts)The typical popular-vote margin in presidential elections is about 48-47. So 48 minus 5 is 43. Which is what Clinton got in 91, if my memory serves.
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)or if those voters would have just sat out the election.
Downwinder
(12,869 posts)davidn3600
(6,342 posts)It may be fun to think about this kind of thng....
But keep in mind this is all absolutely complete speculation. Lots of assumptions being made without much statistical data to back them up. The whole situation on the GOP side is very fluid. Too many unknowns. Emotions are high and things are being said out of frustration and anger and not fully serious. It's very difficult to get an accurate picture right now.
You have to remember at least 47% of this nation will vote for the Republican candidate, whoever that may be. It's automatic these days because they will be voting AGAINST the Democrat. Just because some conservatives don't like Trump doesn't mean they are going to start voting for Hillary and support liberal ideas and vote in a straight Democrat ticket. Politics doesn't work that way.
If you think Hillary is going to win 47 state.....yeah, it's probably time to put down the pipe for awhile. In 2006-2008 there was statistical data suggesting a massive Democratic wave. Right now, that same data does NOT show a wave. In fact, our turnout numbers so far are down 25% compared to 2008. If that holds, retaking control of the House is mathematically impossible.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)mountain grammy
(26,655 posts)and the reality is zombie Republicans who HATE anything Democratic, or as they say, Democrat, and they always vote. But I don't think it's 47% of the nation, I think it's 47% of registered voters who vote, maybe around 30% of the population. That's pretty much what Hitler won with and, with plenty of gerrymandering, that's how Republicans win.
In my opinion, a nation of 300 million, 30% of whom are in lockstep and hate everyone else, is a bit unstable.
louis c
(8,652 posts)My Prediction is that Trump wins the Republican Nomination, Hillary the Democratic Nomination and the mainstream Republicans run a ticket of Perry and Colburn using the Constitutional Party 50 State access.
Final result:
Hillary 43%
Trump 30%
Perry 27%
47 states go Blue.
We'll see how this works. Book mark this thread.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)Oh to know what was said in the phone call..
http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-clinton-donald-trump-phone-call-report-2015-8?op=1
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)It's a joke that got way out of hand
chwaliszewski
(1,514 posts)sounds like you love Hillary more. Just saying.
djean111
(14,255 posts)Another Bernie But OP.
TheFarseer
(9,326 posts)The south east and states like NE, KS, UT, ID, OK are not voting for her if Pol Pot was the republican nominee.
mountain grammy
(26,655 posts)stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)Thespian2
(2,741 posts)Any vote for HRH is a vote for the corporate oligarchy...
ileus
(15,396 posts)Springslips
(533 posts)Because that was what your vote for Clinton means.
lark
(23,158 posts)HRC would govern very much the same as he is doing, maybe more liberal, more fight against the Repugs, but basically the same. I moan and complain about Obama not having a spine and being too corporatist, at least Hillary has a spine. Now, is she my first choice, hell no. I voted for Bernie and know he's the best person running for president and would make the best president. It just doesn't look like he's able to overcome the Dem establishment. Hope I'm wrong, hope he's our guy in the general, but will vote for the D in the general because our country as we know it would fundamentally change if R's were in charge of all 4 parts of the government and you know the Dems wouldn't fight them hard enough and would let whoever put in 2 more Scalia's when Bader Ginsburg is no longer able to serve.
louis c
(8,652 posts)We were facing annihilation in the Freidrick Case in California until Scalia died.
What labor unions need now is a Democratic President. Any Democratic President.
The first thing you need to learn about politics is how to count.
Math is more important than philosophy.
FlaGranny
(8,361 posts)you would vote Hillary if you love Bernie. Makes no sense. I think many, many people have done that. If everyone who "loved" Bernie had voted for him, he would be in the lead.
L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)It will be fun to sit back with my popcorn when the die-hards here finally realize who the team is this year! I'll be enjoying popcorn as they eat their bitter words.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)TheFarseer
(9,326 posts)But I believe many people think they win a cookie and get a nice pat on the head if they vote for the winner and we have been told for almost a year she will be the winner by all the talking heads. Also, at this point even the biggest bernie fans have to admit bernie is very unlikely to win.
liberal N proud
(60,346 posts)But that would be the most awesome result ever.
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)will these ugly attacks against HRC be allowed on DU. If u attack Bern like that u are banned!
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)whereisjustice
(2,941 posts)Indepatriot
(1,253 posts)Defining us as hapless sheep, subservient to the monied elite. Unable to recognize and seize the opportunity to be led by an actual public servant.......I've not been this disillusioned by my fellow Americans since the run up to the Iraq Slaughter.
IDemo
(16,926 posts)Very plainly GD stuff.
Freddie
(9,275 posts)KYW (Philly) which is true news with no political slant...that the big cheeses in the GOP are now deciding whether to seriously challenge Trump at the convention or take their losses in the White House and concentrate on salvaging the House and Senate races. Either way sounds like a win for us.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)did you factor that in?
tabasco
(22,974 posts)and he has a frighteningly good chance to win. All this talk about the Democrat being a shoo-in is delusional happy-talk from la-la land.
Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)The Democrat is a shoo-in in the situation hypothesized in the OP, namely a serious GOP split. If the election is Trump vs. Walker vs. Clinton or Trump vs. Walker vs. Sanders, the Democratic nominee wins easily. Heck, I'm a natural-born citizen over 35, and even though I've never held elective office, Trump vs. Walker vs. Lane is a Democratic win.
I don't expect a serious three-way campaign, though. No one but the two major party nominees will break 5% of the vote (the matching funds threshold). In that scenario, our biggest problem might be the complacency that you speak against. Trump, unlike a Cruz or a Romney, could put in play some of the "blue wall" states in the Rust Belt, like Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. A Republican who takes those states plus Ohio and holds all of Romney's 2012 states gets to precisely 270 electoral votes. This obviously doesn't mean Trump is a shoo-in -- merely that he could be much more competitive than many DUers seem to think.
Just as background, here are Obama's margins over Romney in the states I mentioned: Michigan, 9.5%; Ohio, 3.0%; Pennsylvania, 5.4%; Wisconsin, 7.0%. Those states could flip if there are enough white working-class voters who still feel economically insecure, who believe that their status hasn't improved all that much in eight years of a Democratic presidency, and who resent the establishments of both parties. I'm not even counting the racists because most of them are voting Republican in any event.
As an amusing possibility, suppose Trump wins all those states and, for good measure, even reverses Romney's 5.8% loss in Iowa. If there are enough angry Hispanics in Arizona to reverse Obama's 9.1% loss there, then the Democratic candidate wins the Presidency despite the Rust Belt defections.
My bottom line is that Trump has defied just about all the experts' predictions in getting as far as he has so far. I'm not writing off his chances of defying the predictions in the general election.