All the numbers spell disaster for Trump: Latest projections portend electoral doom for both the bil

[applegrove]

All the numbers spell disaster for Trump: Latest projections portend electoral doom for both the billionaire and Republicans in November

by Sean Illing at Salon

http://www.salon.com/2016/03/31/all_the_numbers_spell_disaster_for_trump_latest_projections_portend_electoral_doom_for_both_the_billionaire_and_republicans_in_november/

"SNIP................


In short, Trump is extremely popular with his base, but deeply disliked by everyone else. Republican voters who have supported Cruz or Rubio or Kasich will not reliably unite behind Trump in November – that’s a problem for the GOP. Now that Cruz and Kasich are backing away from their pledge to support Trump if he wins the nomination, the landscape is even more challenging.

It’s worse if you extend the analysis to include the broader electorate. As The Washington Post reports, “If Donald Trump secures the Republican presidential nomination, he would start the general election campaign as the least-popular candidate to represent either party in modern times…Three-quarters of women view him unfavorably. So do nearly two-thirds of independents, 80 percent of young adults, 85 percent of Hispanics and nearly half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.”

These are daunting numbers. There is no discernible path to the White House for Trump against this kind of resistance. In the 32 years the Washington Post-ABC News survey has been tracking candidates, no major-party nominee has produced unfavorability scores like this.


...........

Relying on “Each state’s electoral history, developing demographics, and current polling data,” Sabato’s team predicts that Democrats are likely to secure 347 Electoral College votes to a paltry 191 for Republicans (again, this is assuming it’s Clinton versus Trump). A lot can change between now and the election – scandals, a third party candidate, an indictment, economic shocks, terrorism, etc. But these are revealing numbers in any event.



...............SNIP"

[Logical]

1. And that is bad news. nt

[applegrove]

3. Bad news for people who want no unions, no health care, not to pay taxes and to remake the

world in their cold image.

[Logical]

5. I meant we want trump to win the primary and not Cruz. nt

[applegrove]

7. I hear ya.

[Logical]

10. Bernie supporter here, but either Bernie or Hillary is 1000x better than any GOP idiot. nt

[applegrove]

12. Particularly Trump and Cruz. The two worst candidates by far have made it

to the top of the nomination process. Just a party of opportunists and ***holes. Trump would destabilize the world, because he thinks he is so smart and he's not. He's just an ideas guy. He should be a wild, sometimes off base, muse, not a president. Cruz would purposely try to destabilize to destroy the USA as the democracy we knew in the 20th century, like a wanton boy. And he'd be smart about it. How do we want to be destroyed? By dumb or by calculating? What a choice. Bernie is an angel I think. He isn't going to be president of heaven if he wins, but the USA, which is why I support Hillary who I think is a great egg and a realistic one.

[AllyCat]

32. When this season started, I thought Trump, Cruz, and Walker were the worst.

When Walker backed out so quickly, I was encouraged. The fact that these two have landed on top is skull-splitting. Still, I hope it's Trump and not Cruz for the reasons outlined in the op. Either of our dem candidates would be a tower of reason and ability compared to these two.

[applegrove]

34. I concur.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

11. I don't think Cruz fairs much better

Die hard Trump supporters will not like it if someone else is the nominee at this point. They'll assume Trump was railroaded and either riot or flat out stay home.

Once the America people get a full pant load of Ted Cruz, they will not vote for him.

[applegrove]

14. Oh I hope you are right about people seeing Cruz for what he is.

[elljay]

19. I wouldn't underestimate

the effect of several billions of dollars from Adelson, Singer and Rove, coupled with the short attention span of the average American. Cruz will be extremely dangerous because he is very smart and very slimy. We need to go into this election acting as if we are behind and need to catch up. We don't need Dems and Indys staying home because they're expecting a landslide.

[Beartracks]

35. This: Don't stay home because you expect a landslide.

To everyone: You ARE the landslide!

=================

[Rex]

2. .

[davidn3600]

4. And of course they ignore the fact Sanders would win even bigger

[SammyWinstonJack]

16. Of course they do. So frustrating.

[Massacure]

6. tRump looks so orange in that photo on salon that...

...that I almost mistook him for Boehner.

[libtodeath]

8. Raygun had no chance of winning right now in 1980

Dont bet on anything against these monsters.

[houston16revival]

18. +10,000

We're being Rope-a-Doped

[tkmorris]

36. His deficit was only about 6% in April 1980

And he was running against a sitting president. Things can change in a much greater way with a sitting president, especially one dealing with a crisis of some kind, as Carter was. No matter what happens in the world in the next 6 months Hillary, nor Bernie, will be blamed for it, so the sort of bump Reagan got in 1980 will not be duplicated now.

Trump has hit his ceiling in the general. He can only win if his opponent does something completely stupid.

[elljay]

37. And isn't that very possible?

One of his potential opponents has a past and present history of making unforced errors.

[Cosmocat]

39. Trump isn't Reagen

He is in fact the ANTI- REAGEN.

As abhorrent as Reagen's policies were, he was truly a very "likable" person.

I have said since last August Trump was no joke in the primary, and said he has the nomination in a sleeper hold since early last fall.

But, the article is simply stating the obvious.

There is a critical mass of stupid on steroids in the republican party that he has 100 percent behind him.

But, while this country is painfully stupid overall, the greater stupid is more benign than Trump stupid.

It could happen, but it is a reasonably safe bet we have not yet reached the critical mass of stupid on steroids to get him elected POTUS.

[Gothmog]

9. Trump will still be the nominee

[TreasonousBastard]

13. I have no crystal ball, nor...

do I trust that no small group of masked bombers will show up at just the right time...

I also don't trust all the Bernistas to get out the vote if their guy doesn't get the nod. Hillerians might be a bit more traditional and scrunch up voting for Bernie. Too much bad blood on both sides to trust either of them too far, though.


But, if we survive the coming apocalypse, history will have a fine time with this year.

[beachbum bob]

15. impending democratic landslide if we all get off our butts and vote

[houston16revival]

17. Complacency is our own enemy and entirely under our control

There is no downside for Trump or the GOP at this point

In other words, they have no where to go but UP

So beware!

[renate]

20. after Trump's no good horrible very bad week...

... I'm actually getting concerned that he won't be the nominee. I can't believe I'm writing that, but it's true. A Cruz presidency would be apocalyptic; even a minuscule chance that he could win is way too big.

[lastlib]

21. One of the sweeter headlines I've ever read!

Just this thought:

There is no discernible path to the White House for Trump against this kind of resistance.

Except massive election fraud! We gotta watch ourselves and cover our backsides but GOOD!!

[brett_jv]

38. That would require the GOP establishment i.e. Rove et al being behind it ...

I'd imagine that Trump doesn't have anywhere NEAR the 'connections' with longtime GOP operative and stalwarts that could affect massive election fraud ... that he would need. The Roves of the world will decide to cozy up with Hillary, if they've not already.

Now, if Bernie somehow wins the nomination ... then I could see that sort of thing happening.

I still want Bernie though

[ailsagirl]

22. KICK

[tclambert]

23. I hope this means Democrats win a lot of down-ticket races. We need to take back the Senate.

I wish we could take back the House, too, and more of the state governments. If you look at what Republicans did to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Kansas, we really, really need our presidential candidate to have big coattails to ride on.

[yortsed snacilbuper]

24. Hanging chads,

don't celebrate yet!

[jonks2746]

25. Good to hear

Trump is a scumbag of the highest order. He deserves to be trounced in this year's election.

[Dopers_Greed]

26. Trump won't get the nomination

Mark my words, here's what will happen:

1. A brokered convention will "choose" a corporate-picked candidate
2. 99% of the party will rally around the new candidate
3. The Repug's poll numbers will shoot back up and the M$M will declare the presidential race a "dead heat" again

[maindawg]

28. Correct

The corporate candidate is Mitt Romney . but the teabaggers aren't going to go along with it. They will iiether stick with Trump as a third party candidate (believe me Trump will run third party because his entire goal is to get Hillary elected and that would assure it)
The GOP is going to fracture. The radicals will have their own candidates as do the Green party and the Libertarian party ,the American Nazi party etc.
The Democratic party may just have a rupture of sorts also. We are pretty pissed about this right wing takeover of our party and we liberals will have to join the Green party I suppose.

[geek tragedy]

33. It will be Ted Cruz I think, regardless Trump supporters are not going to

just smile and accept it. They are very angry, nasty people.

[Chakaconcarne]

27. I believe this is all by design....

The establishment wants Hillary in office. She is really the GOP nominee and hated by enough vocal extremists that in combination , over time and a little help from msm, will drive this country further to the extreme right.

[Mc Mike]

29. Good news. Rec. nt.

[MoonRiver]

30. Can't wait to see that POS flushed down the toilet, once and for all!

[Herman4747]

40. Well I wish your beloved candidate would agree with you...

[Chemisse]

31. A zombie candidate

Some pundit used that term the other day for someone who wins the nomination but doesn't have a prayer of winning the general.

Apt.