The old Conventional Wisdom (about Trump) was wrong and so is the new emerging

[yellowcanine]

Conventional Wisdom. The old CW said that Trump could not win the Republican nomination. It was wrong because it failed to take into the account of how few votes could prevail in primaries with a multitude of candidates. Then Trump got momentum and continued to prevail. The new emerging CW is that Trump somehow is going to upset the electoral map which has advantages for Democratic candidates and upset Clinton in places like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc. It has some appeal based on what happened in the Republican primaries. But it ignores one basic fact. A lot of voters who did not participate in Republican primaries and who will be participating in the general election are extremely motivated to vote against Trump, regardless of how they feel about HRC. I am talking Hispanic voters, black voters, and many women - Democratic, Independent, and moderate Republican. Another large group of Republican voters are so disgusted by Trump - namely true conservatives and many evangelicals - that they will not vote for Trump under any circumstances - they will vote Libertarian, stay home or not vote for the top of the ticket, and a few will vote for Clinton. Trump has brought in some new voters - no doubt about that - but he has also brought in many new voters against him - namely Hispanics. Hispanic voter registration is up and citizenship applications are up. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/08/us/trumps-rise-spurs-latino-immigrants-to-naturalize-to-vote-against-him.html?_r=0

This could flip some traditionally red states - North Carolina and maybe Arizona and keep some swing states blue - Florida and possibly Ohio. There are even some rumblings about Texas - I have relatives there and they think it is a possibility though it is best not to put much stock in such "street noise." But there is no doubt that something is happening with Hispanic voters which is good for Democrats and bad for Trump and possibly some down ticket Republicans. Democrats should not be over confident - they need to continue to work on registrations and GOTV and fight voter suppression everywhere. But neither should they be gloomy. There is no reason to be.

[callous taoboy]

1. A very heartening assessment.

My few Republican friends in this deep red area in Texas will vote for Hillary, and they told me yesterday that the people they go to church with are saying they will either stay home or vote for Hillary.

[callous taoboy]

3. Also, did anyone catch PBS Newshour last night with 2 R Senators?

Two very different assessments of Trump, one saying that while Trump is basically an awful human being he is the lesser threat to America than Hillary, the other one saying what crap that assessment is, that America will have to endure 4 years of Hillary while the Republicans get their shit together to put forth a viable candidate next time. These two clearly did not respect each other in the least. It was a blast to watch.

[yellowcanine]

4. "endure 4 years of Hillary while the Republicans get their shit together"

I am heartened that even more sane Republicans think they will be able to "get their shit together" under four years of HRC. This is the same crowd who thought they could make Obama a one term President and then when that did not happen, SURELY they could keep him from getting a "third term," riiiiight?

[callous taoboy]

6. Like watching a fatal car crash in slow motion.

I just smiled and smiled.

[yellowcanine]

9. Me too. Got downright giddy sometimes.

And Mr. Cool just kept giving them more rope and saying "Please proceed, Governor."

[callous taoboy]

10. Now Ryan wiping Trump jizz off his chin.

[kimbutgar]

2. Also after awhile all that bragging about how great he is and no substance will catch up with him

Imagine you worked with a narcissist like trump everyday after awhile you stop talking with them because you are to
Tired of his egomaniac ways and avoid them in the workplace. The shtick of his will grow old. Only those rubes who are brainwashed by a steady diet of Fox propaganda will support him. It's only May 6 months of that hateful, bully who lies with no conscience will be exposed.

[MH1]

5. It's a happy thought but we can't afford to be over confident.

Just remember 2000.

Some of us thought we dodged a bullet when the Republicans nominated a blithering idiot instead of a decorated war veteran and former POW.

Oops.

[yellowcanine]

8. Point taken. But different times, different people.

I think HRC will not make the same mistakes as Gore did. Also, for all of his shortcomings, G.W. Bush was a more credible candidate than Trump and Republicans were united behind him. And Bush got, what, 40% of the Hispanic vote? Trump will be lucky to get 10%. And there is no Ralph Nader. Yes, Gore would have won without Ralph Nader.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

7. It's A Matter Of Simple Math

The media is going ga-ga over Drumpf's apparent triumph, bucking all the naysayers' prognostications of doom to win the Republican nomination. But here's the problem Drumpf is going to have going forward. Republicans who vote in the primaries (the ones who so overwhelmingly showed up to give him the nomination) comprise about 20% of the population. And of that 20%, Drumpf got the support of less than half of them. So even if we assume that everyone who voted AGAINST Drumpf in the primaries will suddenly fall in line and vote for him in November (and let's face it, a lot of them will--but not all), that gets him about 15% of the vote. Woo hoo.

As I've said before, it's pretty easy to win a Republican primary by spewing messages of hate. Republican voters eat that shit up. The problem is, Democratic voters comprise about 25% of the population, and the remaining 55% of the population who could swing either way isn't going to unite behind a guy like Drumpf. Just ask Mitt Romney what happens when you try to win by JUST getting the angry white man vote.

Women are 51% of the population. Can't win without women. And Drumpf has done everything in his power to make sure he WON'T win the women's vote. Oh, he'll try to pull some back in by pulling a John McCain and offering them up a fellow female as his running mate (watch and see if I'm right). But just like in 2008, American women won't be so easily fooled.

Same with Hispanics. The Republicans' own internal memos admit that they can't win without Hispanics. So here comes Drumpfy the Clown all but assuring them that they'll be rounded up and thrown into concentration camps. Nice move.

Seems like Drumpf is going to try to make a go of it by ONLY appealing to angry white men. It won't work. Doesn't mean we should all stop working. It just means that if we do what we should do, Drumpf will get nowhere near the White House. And just wait until all the soundbites from 30 years of interviews are pulled and put into TV ads. And all the enemies Drumpf has made over the years (and there have been plenty) start coming out of the woodwork. And then add into the mix the fact that even his own Party will be working against him. I don't believe for one hot minute that Drumpf stands a chance of actually winning.