a question adressed to the UK Duers: Re brexit
two actually:
1) how likely do you think it is that England leaves the Eu?
2) If so, then what happens?
= new reply since forum marked as read
The polls tend to point to Leave winning; but it's hard to calibrate them since they can't compare to a previous referendum on such a topic, in the internet age. Phone and online polls have usually differed, with online looking more like a Leave win, but with both trending that way:
but betting/prognosticating has consistently thought Remain will win. See http://predictwise.com/politics/uk-politics (they put 'Remain' as 'Yes', and has been between 60% and 80%, currently at 75%).
2) Nobody knows. The way for a country to leave the EU is meant to be a formal declaration of intent, which kicks off a 2 year long negotiation on how it all happens, which can only be prolonged if every single member country agrees to. Cameron, the PM, said he'd make the declaration quickly if he lost the referendum.
Scotland might demand another referendum on independence if they are significantly in favour of the EU but the overall UK votes Leave. There's a good chance Cameron will resign or get kicked out by the Tories, and Boris Johnson is the bookies' favourite to be next Tory leader, and thus PM, if that happens (which was once seen as a literal joke. Until people realised it might happen). Who knows what happens to TTIP negotiations; many of the Brexit leaders are insanely pro-free trade, as long as they don't have to let EU workers into the UK. Multinational companies won't see the UK as a convenient English-speaking base for the EU, so will stop setting up branches here. Trade with the EU could get completely fucked up, or could continue almost as if nothing had changed. Nobody knows.
