A Brexit conspiracy theory nails the no-win situation Boris Johnson now finds himself in

[KamaAina]

http://qz.com/717182/a-brexit-conspiracy-theory-nails-the-no-win-situation-boris-johnson-now-finds-himself-in/

Former London mayor Boris Johnson should be on cloud nine. Having spearheaded the successful Brexit campaign, he’s emerging as the likely successor to Conservative prime minister David Cameron, who opposed the movement to leave the European Union.

On the steps of the prime minister’s residence at 10 Downing Street, Cameron announced immediately after the vote results that he will step down in October, and said that “fresh leadership” is needed. He also said he would leave it to the next prime minister to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which would start the two-year process of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.

But rather than portraying Cameron as the defeated and Johnson as the victor, a post in the Guardian’s comments section lays out a scenario in which Johnson’s predicament looks far worse.

“He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated,” the comment, by a prolific and anti-Brexit commenter identified as Teebs, says. “If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over – Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession … broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this.”

[unblock]

1. um, yeah. because in chess, resigning is the most dastardly move?

sorry but the "check-mated" analogy falls flat if only because cameron "resigned".
game over, johnson wins.

more seriously, anyone who becomes pm now has great license to negotiate for a better deals with the eu, whether from inside it or out.

the next pm can invoke article 50 to leave or negotiate a better deals for staying, if the eu will agree to that.

for that matter, the new deal only has to *look* different enough to justify another referendum.


in any event, the next pm does all this from 10 downing street. that seems like victory to me.

[davidn3600]

2. This is starting to look like whining

What the hell kind of twisted version of democracy is this that the remain voters seem to want?

3 million sign a petition. And that becomes headline news. Never mind the 17 million who actually voted to leave. Suddenly those voices don't matter anymore?

Not only that but these remain folks who are crying not only want a re-vote, but they want to change the rules. They want to make it so you need 60% in order to leave and have 75% turnout. In other words, you set the goalposts already knowing what the result will be.

And now these lame conspiracy theories?

Seriously....does democracy matter anymore?

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

3. So what was your position on Proposition 8?

If Brexit actually happens it will set Britain back fifty years, this isn't a matter of hoping the next election goes differently this is an existential crisis for the UK that it might not survive intact.

[snooper2]

9. who is going to take all their computers away?

[LeftishBrit]

4. Firstly, the attempt to change the rules originated with Leave people who were afraid that Remain

might win.

Secondly, deciding vital policies for generations by a narrow majority, without adequate or truthful information provided in advance, isn't real democracy. Leave people were already admitting that some of their key claims were 'mistakes' aka LIES on the morning after the vote. And the people most imminently affected - long-term residents in Britain from the EU - were not able to vote, even though they CAN vote in British local council elections.

Frankly, your post reminds me a bit of the comments of Republicans in 2000 and 2004, who claimed that Democrats who complained about the ways that the elections were run, were just sore losers engaging in conspiracy theories.

[KelleyKramer]

5. Thank you for that ...

As someone in the US I am unfamiliar with this stuff and still trying to sort it all out

If you don't mind, I have a few basic questions...

Cameron is leaving in October, does that mean there will be a new election in October?

If the UK does follow through and leave, how likely do you think it is that Scotland would break away?


Thanks
Kelley

[LeftishBrit]

6. Answers, as far as I have them

(1) Cameron is leaving in October, does that mean there will be a new election in October?

No, not necessarily. There are many precedents for a prime minister resigning and being replaced by a new party leader (e.g. Wilson by Callaghan, Blair by Brown) without an immediate election. And the Fixed Term Parliaments Act prevents a prime minister from unilaterally calling an election before the end of a 5-year term - in this case, till 2020. That being said, a new election can be called if there's a vote of no confidence in the government (which Cameron has temporarily forestalled by resigning), or if three-quarters of MPs vote for a new election. Either of these things may well happen, but probably not as early as October.

What Cameron's resignation does mean for the immediate future is a Conservative Party leadership contest.

(2) If the UK does follow through and leave, how likely do you think it is that Scotland would break away?

Hard to say. They can't just leave from one day to the next; they would have to have another referendum. I'd say that it's about a 50-50 chance in the short to medium term, and higher in the long term; but others might give different estimates.

[KelleyKramer]

7. Interesting ...

Thanks for taking the time to respond

So if I follow from what you are saying, that means Cameron was very early in a 5 year term? To me, without even knowing anything else, that would make his resignation even more significant

Interesting on the process for replacement. Seems like there are a lot of different ways that whole thing could play out

[Javaman]

8. It not a "conspiracy theory", it's one persons informed opinion.

and a pretty good one at that.