Who will win the presidency?

[uawchild]

Chance of winning:

Clinton 51%
Trump 49%

as of 7/31/2016
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Wow, a lot closer than I would have thought.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

1. That's a polls-only forecast

Polls-plus forecast (economy, trends, etc.) has a 60.9% to 39.1% chance for Hillary to win, and the now-cast (who would win if the election were held today) has a 56.8% to 43.2% chance that Hillary would win.

And that last number is the first time in a week that Hillary is up in the now-cast, so that's a good thing.

[fasttense]

2. Why does he include Johnson but NOT the Green party?

I think he's a libertarian at heart. He's a RepubliCON who doesn't want to be told what to do.

[NuclearDem]

3. Or it might because the Green Party isn't polling well.

[Rex]

4. Clinton in a landslide.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. Who will be President.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0

Much more comprehensive look here that includes 538 with some other models.

[egduj]

6. No way Clinton loses.

[Grey Lemercier]

7. only way Clinton loses is if she were to bollocks up all the debates

or there is a huge Muslim terror attack, with hundreds or even thousands of casualties right before the election and Trump somehow spins it to such a dregree he wins most of the swing states

both are extraordinarily unlikely

[ananda]

8. Clinton will win in a rout. However, it's the Senate ..

.. I'm worried about. That's where the Reeps are putting
their money and ads.

Dems need to take the Senate more seriously now!