Why this race is so close?

[kentuck]

Although many polls may say otherwise, many people believe this race between Clinton and Trump is much closer than some might think.

Many Democrats are befuddled that Hillary Clinton is not leading by at least 20 percentage points. How could a candidate with the deficiencies of Trump be so close?

In my opinion, this race is as close as it is because of the corporate media, primarily television media. They are primarily interested in keeping the horse race close and keeping the campaign advertising dollars rolling in. They can find a moral equivalency in almost anything. One candidate may have been involved in criminal activities and the other may have cheated on a test when he/she was in the third grade? The media will devote more time to reporting about how cheating on a test, even at a young age, is a sign of dishonesty and untrustworthiness.

At this time, the media is very busy reporting on emails and charitable organizations by one candidate, as they, more or less, ignore the possibility of the other candidate's connections to foreign countries and foreign banks, with possible collusion with unfriendly foreign leaders, with the high possibility of blackmail and threats to our national security, as they scamper off on another search for a missing email.

Day after day of reporting about the dishonesty and untrustworthiness of one candidate and the total lack of coverage about a possible threat to our national security has created an illusion amongst the voters that portrays the candidates as equal in their liabilities. The repetition about emails and dishonesty has made this a very close race.

[Botany]

1. The media is keeping it close and they and the GOP are selling the "you can't trust Hillary" meme

Trump doesn't even have an office in Cincinnati, OH.

[SharonAnn]

39. Over qualified woman and under qualified man. And it's perceived as close? Typical.

[awoke_in_2003]

71. Yep, got to sell ad time...

it is disgusting as hell.

[TheDebbieDee]

81. I couldn't agree more...

Campaign Management and Fund-raising are the latest cottage industries in the US. The states with the closest polls are the states in which the TV and radio stations have paid the most $ to pollsters to come up with tightening polls.

Trump doesn't need ads but Sec Clinton campaign managers will feel the need to spend more $ in these tightening states...

[Loki Liesmith]

2. It's not that close

It's as far apart as demographics will permit.

Voting behavior is tribalized. Campaigns can only move votes around the margins.
The reliable R base is at 40%. Nothing can change that.

[Peregrine Took]

4. "Trump is up 10 points over his position last week" - so said Thom Hartmann a minute ago. n/t

[Loki Liesmith]

8. Never believe a talk show host

even if they are on your side.

Their primary motivation is to keep people listening.

[PSPS]

13. Hartmann is a charlatan

He, like the rest of the media, has to fill airtime and sell ads. Does he still shill for the "buy gold" scam on the radio? Are there sponsors for his show on Putin's RTV?

[Loki Liesmith]

17. I think Charlatans have their place

And a good mountebank always warms the cockles of this Frost Giant's heart.

Just gotta remember what you're dealing with.

[Stonepounder]

48. But also says 538. Trump +5 and Hillary -5 in the last few days.

The MSM is still playing its 'equivalency' game. They want to keep bringing in the ad $$$ even as they risk Trump actually getting elected and putting them all out of business and replacing them with a state run news network called "TRUTH".

[Botany]

5. "The reliable R base is at 40%"

And at least 20 to 30% of those GOPers will never vote for Trump.

[Loki Liesmith]

10. I actually don't believe that

The "nevertrump" contingent seems to shrink every few weeks by a few points. I expect by election time it will be largely business as usual.

[Botany]

21. The #s of GOPers who are against Trump keeps growing

http://fusion.net/story/332994/republicans-against-trump/

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141563583

[Loki Liesmith]

23. that's anecdotal data

I'm referring to the percentage of republicans in polls who will note vote for Trump. He has been consolidating the Republican base since April at least.

There may be a hard core of Republicans who will really never ever vote Trump but they are not hugely significant as an electoral force. Right now he's got about 75% of Republicans according to some polls I saw yesterday. I think HRC has about 80% of Ds in that same poll. It's a disadvantage, but a marginal one.

[Botany]

24. Barbara Bush

“What about women? I don’t know how women could vote for someone who said what he
said about Megyn Kelly. It’s terrible! And we knew what he meant too.”

In Ohio a senior and well liked republican who has m.s. is on record as saying he would never vote for
Trump because he made fun of a NY Times reporter w/a euromusclar disease.

[PSPS]

6. "The reliable R base is at 40%"

And Trump won merely a plurality of that.

[former9thward]

36. The same could be said about Clinton and the Democratic base.

[PSPS]

43. Sorry, but no. Such a statement would be ridiculous.

[former9thward]

49. Oh really?

Clinton won 55% of the Democratic voters. 14.4% of Democrats voted in the primaries. So by your logic she has 55% of 14.4% of the voters.

[PSPS]

65. The primary is over, my friend.

[former9thward]

66. I know.

I was not the one making illogical statements about primaries.

[LanternWaste]

45. And saying as such would be inaccurate.

And saying as such would be inaccurate (your consistency is bemusing).

[kentuck]

7. Demographics don't vote.

People vote.

You are correct in that voting has become "tribalized" and campaigns can only move votes around the margins. That is why if they can get Hillary's "negatives" up to Trump's negatives, it's flip a coin. There is nothing to bet the farm on.

[Loki Liesmith]

15. My cynical experience has been that

People are mostly a slice of several demographics at their core with some random variation around the edges.

Outliers exist, of course, in the form of "true individuals" but there aren't enough of them to move an election.

[PSPS]

3. It isn't. The media has to pretend it is so they can fill airtime and sell ads.

[jonno99]

28. Yep, this election is in the bag. No worries, it's a done deal. No way Trump can win!

No Thanks! I'll count my chickens on Weds morning (hopefully very early!), 11-9-2016

GOTV

[izzybella]

9. I think

I believe that part of the reason is that there is a base of Republican support that will always, no matter what is said or done, vote for the Republican. They don't care if they are voting against their own interests or voting for a crazy person, they have always voted Republican and always will. That accounts for a large portion of Trump's support.

My mother is one of those voters. She doesn't care about anything else but the R next to the name. She will mumble and complain if the Republican is not white, but in the end, she will always vote the R.

[kentuck]

14. Voters are like Pittsburgh Steeler fans...

That is their team and they will pull for them until the bitter end, win or lose. It's like a sports game to them.

[Nay]

29. I have many relatives exactly like this. Woe be unto people who think that

"most people" won't vote for a crazy person. It's not true. Ungodly numbers of people vote emotionally -- it's their team! -- or they vote their id, which is what A LOT of Trump voters are doing. It's an ugly, squirming toad of an id, but it rules many, many people. It's not pretty, but we better realize why or we'll never be able to address the problem.

[unblock]

11. it's not really all that close. i think we've got the biggest, longest lead since 1996

and hillary might well have the biggest electoral college margin of victory since then as well.

yes, it's frustrating that there are so many republicans who would merrily vote for pol pot if he called himself a republican over jesus if he called himself a democrat.

but hillary's got a solid lead and all trump's pivoting and softening and mexican visiting and rallying has shown is that he's boxed himself into a corner where he can't broaden his base and any effort to do so only weakens his support from the base of bigots he already has.

[liberal N proud]

12. The Clinton campaign wants the appearance of a close race as well

They need to be able to raise money and inspire volunteers and ultimately stimulate people to vote.

Complacency is the enemy in a blow-out.

[skylucy]

19. Thanks saying that. That is true and it made me feel better! I've been

kind of depressed after that horrible Trump hate fest yesterday.

[renate]

31. that makes sense, and it's very comforting

Thank you!

[former9thward]

46. It makes no sense.

But take comfort where you can find it.

[Fast Walker 52]

50. good point, nerve-wracking as it may be to keep hearing how close it is!

[unblock]

18. come to think of it, in a way it's impressive that it's *not* very close.

keep in mind that the media and the right-wing have spent much of the last quarter-century painting hillary as all kinds of evil and corrupt.

doesn't seem they're getting much of a return on that yuuuuuuge investment, does it?

[Warpy]

20. Business as usual is killing us

and Clinton is seen as the business as usual candidate, fairly or unfairly.

Trump is seen as the temper tantrum throwing candidate who will destroy the system screwing all the disenfranchised people in this country, a growing majority of us.

Never mind his party's policies did the damage and never mind he's a wrecking ball who will destroy everything and everyone. They are angry and want to hit back and he's the proxy to get the job done.

That's why.

[stopbush]

22. It isn't close. Relax.

[spanone]

25. 538

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1

[jonno99]

30. +1

[Stellar]

58. This was from 538 yesterday....

Live Polls And Online Polls Tell Different Stories About The Election

FiveThirtyEight generally takes an inclusive attitude towards polls. Our forecast models include polls from pollsters who use traditional methods, i.e., live interviewers. And we include surveys conducted with less tested techniques, such as interactive voice response (or “robopolls”) and online panels. We don’t treat all polls equally — our models account for the methodological quality and past accuracy of each pollster — but we’ll take all the data we can get.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/live-polls-and-online-polls-tell-different-stories-about-the-election/

[Jeffersons Ghost]

26. K&R, possibly because the most publicized polls are rigged...

For example, when volunteering to register voters in Alabama, I was not allowed to endorse or criticize Bush, or endorse Clinton, while registering voters. To offset the legal constraints, I simply focused on working in US Federal Housing Projects, which were mostly inhabited by blacks. An extremely elderly woman told me that she would proudly cast the first vote of her life-time for Bill Clinton. I did not reply, except to thank her for taking the time to register and vote, which represented acceptable dialog.

Had I been taking a political poll in a Federal Housing Project, Clinton would have appeared as heavily favored.

[LanternWaste]

47. Your allegation, and the anecdotal evidence you use to support the allegation are entertaining.

"most publicized polls are rigged..."

Your allegation, and the anecdotal evidence you use to support your allegation are entertaining.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

77. You use the same phrase twice. It's opinion not allegation like Opinion Polls, which change rapidly.

[Maddchick]

27. Yes, and all the while they ignore the actual lies and dishonesty of Mr. Trump

It is painful to hear and see.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

32. Because there are a lot of very right-wing people in America. N.T.

[tonyt53]

33. Trump WILL get the 37%-40% reliably GOP vote. They don't care about his views, just not a Dem.

Toss in another 4%-5% more Dems and indies that are racist. Not a lot of votes left. That is why it is close and will remain close. For any Democrat or independent to think this race is over of that it will be a landslide, you will be in for some real disappointment after you stay home and not vote thinking your vote won't matter.

[librechik]

34. "Perception Managers" want it close enough to steal

and meanwhile make billions off The Great Race

[Cyrano]

35. Stealing it takes the cooperation of

Republicans at the state level. IMO, many of them don't want to see Trump in the White House and wouldn't lift a finger to help him "win."

[librechik]

69. yeah. I know. They are in a pickle! (LOL)

Nevertheless, Ja, wohl! They are Republicans, after all.

Fortunately they screw things up a lot, so this year, they might just accidentally forget about the fix.

[hibbing]

37. Sadly...I think it is his racism n/t

[rocktivity]

38. Duh Donald is making the same mistake that R-Money did

Last edited Fri Sep 2, 2016, 01:48 PM - Edit history (1)

Romney counted on there being enough whites who wouldn't vote for a black person under any circumstances. Donnie's counting on there being enough men who wouldn't vote for a woman under any circumstances.

As long as the margin remains in excess of a cheatproof five percent, I'm not going to worry -- especially not sixty days out.




rocktivity

[ChairmanAgnostic]

40. There is a serious, possibly unwelcome answer.

A good number of people do not trust her and do not like her.

When the negative polling results are virtually equal between Hillary and Cheeto Hair, that is sending us a YUGE signal.

To complicate matters, her campaign seems tepid. Teh Donald manages to monopolize the TV coverage almost every day. Her coverage today was limited to a tweet she (or someone on her behalf) sent.

Whatever else Trump may be, deranged, sociopathic, psychopathic, delusional, or just an out and out liar, he is also a master at getting and holding the media's attention.

There was a editorial comic strip in today's Chi Trib. The topic was the total lack of Hillary's press conferences this year.

She herself has admitted that she is a lousy campaigner, and that is a problem, especially when Teh Donald repeatedly and consistently uses the media to define her. Her failure to strike back is worrisome.

The polls will get worse, and Team Hillary will have to redefine themselves yet again, just like they did against Bernie. Except, Bernie is a gentleman, something that is a concept alien, unthinkable, and unknown to Teh Donald.

From my point of view, they squandered too many opportunities during the primaries. They are repeating the same mistakes here and now. We can still lose this thing. If we do, she can only blame herself and what I believe has been a lousy campaign. Ten weeks and Teh Donald is getting closer each day? That should induce a colonic spasm so grand in her campaign staff that they will all need a new set of clothing.

[kentuck]

42. That may be so but...

...her positive polls before she announced she was running for the Presidency was 66% and something happened? Both Parties thought very highly of her.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

51. from today's HuffPo

While bombastic Republican nominee Donald Trump remains the most unpopular major-party presidential nominee in modern U.S. history, Hillary Clinton is not faring much better ― a new poll found that she is currently the most disliked she has ever been in 25 years of public life.

Just 41 percent of Americans have a favorable view of the Democratic presidential nominee, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Wednesday. It also found that 56 percent have an unfavorable view of her, a record high for the poll.

Forget the personalities or party affiliations. For the average indie observer, that constitutes a four alarm warning.

[Cosmocat]

53. Because Hillary is brittle as a public figure

I am NOT saying this about her personally, she has put up with a LOT of shit and just keeps coming back.

But, as a public figure, a women who has been slandered relentlessly for a quarter century:

1) the right wing has done what they always try to do, very effectively, and bullied the left into not rallying behind her, into being too embarrassed to actively support her.

2) wearing down the "middle" who don't really pay attention, but after a quarter century of Hillary this, Hillary that, they just assume there is something wrong with her.

That is why she can dip so quickly, it takes very little for her support to ebb 5 points or so ...

Meanwhile, as you and most note - 40 percent of the country at least IS going to support trump if he skull fornicates kittens live on national TV, and another 5% or so are desperately looking for any reason to vote for him - all because in their minds not voting for him is doing the work of the devil by not voting R.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

56. I cannot disagree.

Just today, another report of Teh Donald's strong mob ties in NY came out. And the reaction among his more athletic supporters has been "meh."

If you or I had even one such contact, the media would be all over us in our short lived campaigns.

But, the problem remains that her image in the public's eye remains tarnished. And it can harm us in the November vote.

[Cosmocat]

52. She admitted to being a "lousy" campaigner?

can you link that.

I know she has noted that they she isn't a great campaigner, but I missed where she said "lousy."

And, her campaign if fine - she is out there pretty much every day doing events, they have a clear strategy, seem well organized and everyone is on the same page.

She is not a super dynamic person AND the right wing and media are chomping at the bit to blow some nonsense out of proportion, so they run a tight balance between getting her out and protecting her from the stupid.

The issue is a quarter century of right wing slander ... The public is worn down with it all.

[Wolf Frankula]

41. The Difference Is between Live and Online polls

Harry Enten at 538 wrote that when live only polls are counted, she has a chance of winning of 86.0%, but when nonlive (online) polls are included it goes down to 70.5%.

Freeping online polls to get the results you want has been around for 16 years, but somehow the MM hasn't heard about it yet.

Wolf

[cry baby]

44. In the MSM, Hillary automatically gets the assumption of guilt.

Just the word "email" sends them into a discussion of how she isn't trustworthy.

They hardly cover her at all except when someone finds an "email".

[kristopher]

54. This could be seen coming from a mile away.

The high unfavorables of both candidates and the negative nature of the so-called "policy debate" that is taking place pretty much guaranteed it.

[pnwmom]

55. Yesterday was a good example. All day yesterday was a free infomercial for Trump. n/t

[kentuck]

57. Donald stole her thunder...

She should have gotten more coverage from her appearance before the American Legion but Donald had his surprise trip to Mexico earlier in the day and then his rally for his "wall" later at night and Hillary was sort of frozen out yesterday.

[world wide wally]

59. Never underestimate the power of the media.

Orwell saw this even before tv entered the modern age. We have to let the talking heads know that they will be help responsible for any level of success Trump may realize ze on Nov. 8
They have the opposite rat notices to call him and his surrogates on her s last Es, racism, corrupt be senses practices, and belligerence on a daily basis, yet they say NOTHING and no note them back to do that t all over again the next day.
Never have we been so close to losing our freedom of the press (with the possibility of reporters even being imprisoned) and yet, these reporters are too blinded or too timid to ever say a word about it.
Are you listening Chris Matthews, Anderson Cooper, Chrs Hayes, Steve Kornacki, Jake tapper, etc?
This is YOUR responsibility and your DUTY.

[kentuck]

63. It is a continuing battle for justice.

Because without truth, there can be no justice. They are the faces on TV. It comes with a responsibility. Sometimes, "if you want a good cool drink of water, you gotta dig a little deeper in the well"...

[HereSince1628]

60. It's not that hard to see it as a partisan confrontation...

In that way, the high-octane stupidity of Trump is boiled off, and what remains is: a republican is always better than a democrat.

Which should have a not surprisingly familiar sound.

It's not the media. It's not the candidates. The republicans who are paying attention are fleeing Trump and turning into refugees.

The closeness is because for the non-thinkers, replacement of the effort of consideration comes with the demands of team membership. This they understand: 'Go Big Red!'

[MFM008]

61. She should be

Out there
.... BUT the media is trying to force her into a press conference or facing them somehow by raising a huge amount of issues that have mostly been raised and reraised by a partisan FBI.

[sylvanus]

62. To pose the question, is to know the answer.

But I believe Jimmy Dore says it better.

[kentuck]

67. That is some right-wing BS,

If I may say?

[piechartking]

64. This race is not close - here's why:

For some unknown reason (maybe inexperience, maybe the false confidence that comes from easy success without mastery), Trump refuses to get down in the mud and do the mundane, nuts-and-bolts things that it takes to win a Presidential election. The most important task is to build up your campaign infrastructure, especially in the swing states.

This will allow you to reach out to voters through mass media, direct mail, social media, volunteers. Someone has to plan that. Someone has to build it. Someone has to coordinate it (and when I say coordinate, I'm talking about building a technology platform that can house the millions and millions of data points about voters and feed that data in useful ways to all the components of the campaign). Then you can target voters for GOTV, persuasion.

Trump has done NOTHING. He thinks he can magically persuade voters via the airwaves with all his earned media. Sadly, he's got another thing coming, unless he is WAY ahead in polling on Nov. 8 (unlikely).

PBS had an article about this the other day: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/trump-campaign-has-ground-game-problem.

Here's another article about how the lag in ground game will KILL Trump: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/20/why-donald-trumps-1980s-style-campaign-is-struggling-in-2016/

Finally, here's some news today from the Tampa Bay Times (via Washinton Post), about Trump having ONE (yes, ONE) field office open in all of the state of FL, as of September 1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/01/donald-trump-has-1-field-office-open-in-all-of-florida-thats-a-total-disaster/?postshare=9551472745786264&tid=ss_tw

Maybe I'll make this an OP.

[kentuck]

68. GOTV or go TV ?

Trump has done nothing except stir up division. He gave us an idea of how he would be as President when he went down to Mexico and stirred up a hornet's nest there.

In my opinion, we can have all the polls we want but sometimes, the voters fool the experts.

I am hesitant to permit any type of over-confidence, knowing that a lot of elevators do not go all the way to the top. But, in a democracy, we must trust the judgement of the people. If the people decide to put a tyrant in charge, then they have to be ready to accept responsibility for their action. (their vote)

[JI7]

70. most of her supporters are minorities . she is unpopular among white men

And they make up a large percentage of the population.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

80. I think white males are 30% of population

It seems, according to this poll and article, that higher education makes a huge difference in how people vote. If we could get more people a college education, I think this would make a big difference. White people (white men in particular) seem to need higher education to move past racist, sexist ways of thinking.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/31/donald-trump-is-splitting-the-white-vote-in-ways-weve-never-seen-before/

[DonCoquixote]

72. both the chicken littles and the cocky types are wrong

namely because for all the talk of the white man vote, there is nothign Trump can do to win back women, Hispanics, or Afro-Americans, the same people that put Obama in office. These are the people who DO get out and VOTE.

However, the Media is stoking the anger of the people who have fed their ratings, the Archie Bunkers who feel offended that Obama ever got closer to the White House than a Butler, and the ones who secretly like the facts that cops are killing black people. The Media has glorified them, told them they are important. Do not let the "left" at MSNBC fool you, because they know that W. was ratings gold that they did not have to work for. Just as many so called democrats slashed at Obama because he meant they had to stop hiding behind the "we aint never gonna win lections" bs and work, so will the mainstream media. Yes MSNBC and CNN do more damage than Fox, because they mainstream Trump.

Look for Florida shenanigans as Rick Scott is great friends with Trump, and as for the "Democratic" party competence in that state, well, I already got a hide for being honest about them, but the fact Rick Scott got re-elected should tell you all you need to know about the Florida Democratic party.

The moral is, even if you have to wear that clothespin on your nose that you take out every four years, you have to vote, especially if like me, you are in on of those Purple states that the media is already planning to give Trump. For example, I know that if Florida goes red, Joe Scab will get on MSNBC and talk about how Florida is really red, despite 2008 and 2012.

[GreenEyedLefty]

73. Trump will get the typical 40%

It won't be a landslide. We should all be grateful for the electoral system.

[Hortensis]

74. A strong narrowing of the lead usually happens by 100 days out

from the election. Candidates way out ahead early on never hold those numbers later in the race. It's an electorate dynamic.

That does not mean the candidate who has been leading all along doesn't still have a strong lead, it's just that the lead is a lot narrower -- but MORE FIRM. The narrowing occurs as people develop commitments to one candidate or another that they will hold through election day.

Don't be fooled by discussion about how Trump will lose if he doesn't change his ways. No one thinks he can win, including his own campaign--the struggle is to save him and the party from catastrophic loss.

[LWolf]

75. Let's not ignore

the elephant in the room.

It was pointed out, and backed up with poll numbers, over and over and over here at DU in the last year.

Hillary Clinton is highly unpopular across the country. The polling showed a close potential race between the two all along.

*Disclaimer: I did not attack Hillary Clinton, and I'm not re-fighting the primaries. I'm just pointing out something that was pointed out repeatedly here for a year. It seems like we shouldn't pretend to forget it when it turns out to be true.

[RKP5637]

76. M$M is a Scam in the US. Their M.O. is $$$$$$'s. Americans need to wake up and smell the coffee! n/t

[heaven05]

78. per the posted question

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ and more $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[sellitman]

79. The GOP are doing exactly what many Dems are doing

They are looking at the Supreme Court.

In their own twisted way they are doing what I'm doing.

[brooklynboy49]

82. It's simple

Both candidates' unlikables are too high. Two "unlikable" candidates = close race. It has nothing to do with the media.