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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNate Silver: "The Bottom could drop out-Making States As Exotic As TX & Alaska competitive"
Nate Silver: If Trump gets stuck at 40 percent of the vote, you could wind up with an outcome like Clinton 51 percent, Trump 40 percent, Gary Johnson 7 percent, Jill Stein and others 2 percent, or something of that nature. That is, a double-digit win for Clinton, which could potentially yield somewhere around 400 votes for her in the Electoral College, and make states as exotic as Texas and Alaska competitive.
That outcome might seem far-fetched. But in an election with high uncertainty, it shouldnt be. Even before the hot mic tape, our model gave Clinton a 5 to 6 percentage point lead, and the error in the forecast is roughly symmetric. The polls could move by 5 or 6 points toward Trump, giving him a narrow win, or equally likely, per our model they could move by 5 or 6 points toward Clinton, giving her a double-digit margin. To put it another way, a Clinton landslide is no more far-fetched than a Trump victory and given the events of the past 24 hours, probably less so.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-bottom-could-fall-out-for-trump/
Warpy
(111,339 posts)to realize we were right about him all along.
Oh, I'm keeping my mouth shut around them. Rubbing it in is always counter productive.
underpants
(182,877 posts)X_Digger
(18,585 posts)Qutzupalotl
(14,327 posts)Flip that House!
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Rose Siding
(32,623 posts)We sure could use it.