Why robots, not trade, are behind so many factory job losses

[hack89]

America has lost more than 7 million factory jobs since manufacturing employment peaked in 1979. Yet American factory production, minus raw materials and some other costs, more than doubled over the same span to $1.91 trillion last year, according to the Commerce Department, which uses 2009 dollars to adjust for inflation. That’s a notch below the record set on the eve of the Great Recession in 2007. And it makes U.S. manufacturers No. 2 in the world behind China.

Trump and other critics are right that trade has claimed some American factory jobs, especially after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 and gained easier access to the U.S. market. And industries that have relied heavily on labor — like textile and furniture manufacturing — have lost jobs and production to low-wage foreign competition. U.S. textile production, for instance, is down 46 percent since 2000. And over that time, the textile industry has shed 366,000, or 62 percent, of its jobs in the United States.

But research shows that the automation of U.S. factories is a much bigger factor than foreign trade in the loss of factory jobs. A study at Ball State University’s Center for Business and Economic Research last year found that trade accounted for just 13 percent of America’s lost factory jobs. The vast majority of the lost jobs — 88 percent — were taken by robots and other homegrown factors that reduce factories’ need for human labor.

“We’re making more with fewer people,” says Howard Shatz, a senior economist at the Rand Corp. think tank. General Motors, for instance, now employs barely a third of the 600,000 workers it had in the 1970s. Yet it churns out more cars and trucks than ever.
Or look at production of steel and other primary metals. Since 1997, the United States has lost 265,000 jobs in the production of primary metals — a 42 percent plunge — at a time when such production in the U.S. has surged 38 percent.

http://www.seattletimes.com/business/mexico-taking-us-factory-jobs-blame-robots-instead/

Technology is always a double edged sword.

[Warpy]

2. Yes and no

First the jobs were shipped overseas. Now when they're coming back, they're coming back to much more automated workplaces.

I'm most familiar with textile mills, so I can't exactly mourn the loss of the type of jobs that existed in the 50s and 60s, people going deaf from the noise of the old shuttle looms and dying young of brown lung from the dust. Still, I have to wonder how 300,000,000 of us are going to eat with fewer and fewer jobs.

[hack89]

4. Yes and no

the low skill/low margin/labor intensive jobs were shipped overseas. High skill/high margin manufacturing jobs remained. Manufacturing of high cost capital goods never declined.

[whatthehey]

3. A bit of historical irony here

As the industrial revolution was getting underway in the 18th century in Britain, it took a full generation to get people to accept working to the clock in a single location under regimented conditions rather than the self-paced, independent contractor setup of the old "putting out" system, and there were many objections including destructive resistance to factory work.

Now we have much of the current prime working age generation who are absolutely aghast that the construct of work is starting to swing back to the older model, and it will probably take its passing to change the norms again, assuming these trends continue. What's the betting "Saint Mondays" make a comeback and the generation just born shake their heads in wonder that people wanted to be tied to clattering machines from 6:00AM to 2:30PM every day?

[Moostache]

5. This is one of two great unaddressed issues right now...

The other is action to stem the worst effects of climate change that is already baked into the system (or belched into the atmosphere if you prefer)...

Jobs of the 20th century, especially the manufacturing heyday from 1950 - 1975 following WWII, are GONE and never coming back. They did not so much "go to China" as they no longer exist. The wages and benefits and power of the American working class was a by-product of historical confluence and it has never been adequately addressed by our leaders.

Following the destruction of Europe in WWII, by the Germans first and the Allies second to defeat the Germans, the entire continent was in shambles and the continental United States was a manufacturing behemoth, ready made for the returning GIs and for recommissioning to civilian use and for the dreaded military-industrial complex. Add to this the plentiful bounty of domestic oil and the booming petroleum industry's advent and the conditions for shared prosperity were everywhere.

Now, trade unions and collective bargaining can't be discounted either... At the dawn of the Industrial Revolution they did not exist and the profits and benefits of that era went exclusively to the top 0.1% (sound familiar to now?). By having strong union membership and bargaining, the working man had a seat at the table and a fair share of the profits and benefits of the post-war boom.

Today everyone is morosely waiting for that to happen again, and it won't, ever. Even another world war would not produce those same conditions. The weapons are too horrific to contemplate total war on such a scale again. The resources like oil and gas too plundered to be so bountiful and cheap and the consequences of not marshalling those resources in a responsible way has led to environmental bedlam that is only going to get a lot worse soon.

Climate change and distribution of wealth are the 2 greatest challenges to not just the United States but to humanity in the 21st century. We need to do a lot better than humanity did in the 20th century, when the breakdown of resource monopolies, over-extended empires and insane political-alliances led directly to the 2 world wars and such horrific loss of life to ultimately resolve. Access to basic human needs like clean water, clean air, food and shelter from the elements and basic elements of civilization like access to electricity and sanitation are attainable goals to combat extreme poverty and deny the terrorist scourge its best source of ammunition - people with nothing left to lose.

Yet, we are enthralled by an election where only one candidate is even presenting plans or proposals to anything resembling our problems and the other standing in gasoline and striking matches and insulting as many people as possible like it is a new Olympic event.

Despair, thou art my constant and weary companion! T

[alarimer]

6. Soon we'll have robots building robots to build other robots...

Well, you can see where this goes. No humans need apply.

[pediatricmedic]

7. Oh man, you had to mention that