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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Fourth Turning - amazing prediction is coming true.
Here is an excerpt from a book, "The Fourth Turning", written in 1997:
(The "Fourth Turning" is a period of crisis in America that was predicted to occur around 2010)
In foreign affairs, Americas initial Fourth Turning instinct will be to look away from other countries and focus total energy on the domestic birth of a new order. Later, provoked by real or imagined outside provocations, the society will turn newly martial. America will become more isolationist than today in its unwillingness to coordinate its affairs with other countries but less isolationist in its insistence that vial national interests not be compromised Old Unraveling-era strategies (flexibility, stealth, elite expertise, stand-off weaponry, and surgical goals) will all be replaced by new Crisis-era strategies (mass, intimidation, universal conscription, frontal assault and total victory) more suitable to a fight for civic survival.
This is based on a theory of 4 historical cycles that occur periodically every 80 years or so the fourth being a crisis.
I posted a short description of the cycles in a previous post.
It's a somewhat controversial theory but history seems to be playing out exactly as it predicted.
More:
http://beelineblogger.blogspot.com/2016/05/has-fourth-turning-brought-us-trump.html
The Blue Flower
(5,442 posts)It isn't so much prophecy as an analysis of recurring patterns that the author documented, then projected into the future. Very interesting.
Kablooie
(18,634 posts)longship
(40,416 posts)Last edited Sat Nov 19, 2016, 08:28 PM - Edit history (1)
And any prediction that it seemingly makes is attributable to confirmation bias.
Theory of four historic cycles that repeat every 80 years (apparently unless they don't, but we'll have a convenient excuse for why they didn't). What in the Sam Hell is that?
In other words, this seems like made up rubbish.
Sorry. I am very skeptical.
Sounds like Time Cube rubbish to me.
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)But the broader point is that history goes through periods of crisis where the old consensus is swept away and the new one is yet to form. Where politicians used to win by supporting the consensus, now Trump has won by blowing it up. These crisis points are dangerous and tumultuous. We are in for a bumpy ride even without Trump.
Kablooie
(18,634 posts)it's too complex to get into here but here's an intro from Wikipedia:
The StraussHowe generational theory, created by authors William Strauss and Neil Howe, identifies a recurring generational cycle in American history. Strauss and Howe lay the groundwork for the theory in their 1991 book Generations, which retells the history of America as a series of generational biographies going back to 1584.[1] In their 1997 book The Fourth Turning, the authors expanded the theory to focus on a fourfold cycle of generational types and recurring mood eras in American history.[2] They have since expanded on the concept in a variety of publications.
Academic response to the theory has been mixedsome applauding Strauss and Howe for their "bold and imaginative thesis," and others criticizing the theory. Criticism has focused on the lack of rigorous empirical evidence for their claims,and a perception that aspects of the argument gloss over real differences within the population
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)There is no mandate.
Kablooie
(18,634 posts)Let's hope the description of them holding onto power for the whole 4th turning is wrong because each "turning" lasts approximately 20 years.
The theory isn't cut and dries but just an approximation but it is unpleasantly close to what seems to be happening.