What Will Trump Trade Policy Actually Look Like? Three Possibilities
Donald J. Trump, through decades in public life, has been consistent on one core policy idea: that the United States has gotten a raw deal from its major trading partners in the agreements that bind their economies. Renegotiating those terms will surely be a top priority for his administration.
But what will that mean in practice? While the broad thrust of Mr. Trump’s thinking on trade is clear, and he has mentioned a few specific policies he would embrace, he and his appointees will have wide latitude in how they pursue more favorable trade arrangements for the United States. A YouTube video released on Monday reiterated a campaign promise to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and more vaguely vowed to “negotiate fair, bilateral trade deals that bring jobs and industry back onto American shores.”
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Scenario 1: The assertive stance, within existing institutions
There really are some elements of the United States’ existing relationships with major trading partners that are dysfunctional and disadvantageous to the United States. By taking more aggressive stands on some of them, a Trump administration may be able to get better deals.
Mr. Trump has said repeatedly that he wants to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. A lot of things can fit under the rubric of “renegotiate,” though, and there is room to update the deal in ways that would prove beneficial to the United States. The agreement is 23 years old, after all. And there is plenty of room to adjust terms in ways that preserve the deeply intertwined North American economy.
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