Hillary's gap in PA just dropped by 23K

[bigtree]

Charles Gaba ‏@charles_gaba 1m1 minute ago
EIGHTY. THOUSAND. PEOPLE. https://t.co/xtI0Eo2Dop

Hillary's gap in PA just dropped by 23K. She's now down by just 80K across WI/MI/PA.



Until now, the Pennsylvania vote gap was hovering around the 70,000 mark depending on your source. If this tweet is accurate, it just dropped to 46,435.

According to the Cook Report spreadsheet (which hasn’t been updated with this yet...it was posted less than 20 minutes ago), here’s where things stand:

WI: Hillary down 22,177
MI: Hillary down 10,704
PA: Hillary down 46,435
Total: 79,316

80,000 people.

Or, put another way: She just needed to flip the votes of 40,000 people in those 3 states.

40,000 people.

read: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/12/1/1606028/-Hillary-s-gap-in-PA-just-dropped-by-23K-She-s-now-down-by-just-80K-across-WI-MI-PA

[Fast Walker 52]

1. wow! Holy crap.

Can this really be happening?

[Coyotl]

18. No, statisically, it can't be happening.

But it is anyway for some reason.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

36. K&R

It is going to happen. Hackers will not be allowed to decide outcome of ANY U.S. Federal election, especially our Commander In Chief.

[pangaia]

45. It is not "hackers," per se.

There is a really good piece by Greg Palast explaining about vote counting in the US of A and what is actually being done about it in these cases.

In a way it is far worse than hacking.

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/38553-the-no-bs-inside-guide-to-the-presidential-vote-recount

[triron]

65. But Palast's discussion does not take

into account the 7% differential observed by cyber experts in precincts that did not hand count.
That implies hacking definitely plausible

[bigtree]

38. can't stop staring at that graph

...bizarre.

Chilling. What the hell happened here?

And Gore's the other one.

[Sunlei]

58. This graph too, from Wisconsin, 'small wards' votes have anominalies from opitscan machines?

article here- https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/28/new-evidence-finds-anomalies-in-wisconsin-vote-but-no-conclusive-evidence-of-fraud/?utm_term=.cf07dd40fdd7

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

[DK504]

66. 80,000 votes

Maybe if they actually counted the votes that would be great!!!! Ya' know, the whole one person, one vote.

How hard is it an election can be called when 5% of the votes haven't been counted. How is it we are still a democracy?

[Achilleaze]

60. The Russian-Republican axis can make many strange things happen

...against America.

[Coyotl]

61. Except there is no such thing.

Do not confuse a server behind a russian firewall for a Russian spy. You, I, or anyone on the web can rent server space in Russia to avoid having our hacking crimes detected in the West. Hell, you could do the DNC hack from a skyscraper in New York if you had a secret connection to a Russian bank server, or from a computer in Michigan if that server was connected to a NY server connected to a Russian server.

How was Trump's secret server to Russia discovered? By investigating the DNC hack, of course! But, can the American public add two and two? I doubt it, they gave their brains to the media propaganda machine.

[Cal Carpenter]

79. Wow that graph is quite striking

(I realize this thread is a few days old, but this is the first time I've seen that.)

Thanks for posting it.

[JHan]

2. fuck..

I want to cry seriously.

[barbtries]

30. if you haven't cried yet,

i recommend you go ahead and do it now. a good cry is good for the soul

[JHan]

32. I have many times :( coming back in a torrent.

[Lotusflower70]

3. Whoa

That's insane.

[MadDAsHell]

4. Ugh. It never should have been this close, even if the vote totals were flipped. Pathetic. nt

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. I agree.

I'll hold onto the extremely tiny hope that the recount swings the electoral college her way, but the fact it was close at all against that hateful and idiotic orange liar will remain sad.

[HughBeaumont]

40. +1,000,000.

Utterly ridiculous that 60 million people even considered "President Donald Trump" to be a great idea in the first place.

[ailsagirl]

73. With all the SUPPORT for HRC-- it seems an impossibility

Nobody had anything good to say about him-- except David Duke, et al

The whole situation makes me sick to my stomach

[Hekate]

5. Meantime, Mr. Apprentice is making Romney grovel publicly, & chitchatting with Pakistan's PM...

....in ways that make him sound no older than his son Barron.

this is insane.

[LisaM]

25. I wouldn't worry too much about Romney.

He's looking like butter won't melt in his mouth. He must have some knowledge or leverage we don't know about.

[Farmgirl1961]

6. I assume that this is before any recount/audit??/

If so...why the drop?

[bigtree]

7. could be uncounted votes

...many states still reporting.

[Raine1967]

13. This is before a recount.

Decision Desk HQ ‏@DecisionDeskHQ
The number didn't drop because of a recount, this was the official release from Philadelphia. They hadn't updated since 11/9

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/804377572167426048

[Dawson Leery]

33. Before recount.

[Amishman]

70. unofficial vs official counts

The numbers released right after the election are unofficial.

These are the official numbers that include any provisional ballots (which usually are for Democrats) and others that were not counted the first time around. Some plain old math errors getting caught too, as we saw in WI.

This is the whole reason they take their time between the initial count and the final count.

[Ford_Prefect]

8. What was it they used to say about counting chickens before they hatch?

[jmg257]

10. Woo Hoo! SOO close now! nt

[Spitfire of ATJ]

11. This is why we need to stop the nonsense of painting a whole state red or blue.

[Amimnoch]

12. How 79,316 votes nullified 2.3 million votes.

There's the headliner.

So, each and every one of these 79,316 tRump voters completely nullified 29 votes for Hillary.

[Leontius]

51. No they didn't

Clinton didn't do the job in the 30 states that had a majority for Trump. I for one don't care that she got huge margins of victory in NY an CA she wasn't running for governor of those states she was running for president of all 50 states and the majority of people in most of those states voted against her. You want to win elections fix that.

[Amimnoch]

52. Yes they did.

You are wrong.

Learn math.

Thanks.

[Leontius]

56. Learn politics.

You're welcome.

[JHan]

62. Let's learn some more politics:

the problem with the electoral college is beyond Clinton vs Trump:

The problem is it potentially creates scenarios like this one. You cannot deny the premise of it: Yes 79,000 did trump 2.5 million. It doesn't matter if those 2.5 million votes were all in California, or hiding behind God's back, or in Alaska. Those 2.5 million votes represent actual people who are facing the fact that 79,000 people decided the election for them, decided whether they get healthcare coverage, decided policy ranging from education to housing, climate change etc etc.

That the Electoral College creates these scenarios ( regardless of the pitfalls of any candidate) means we have a problem. It is possible that a candidate could win the election with just 30% of the popular vote depending on population density and an imbalance in how electoral votes are dispersed- that is bound to create tension and problems.

[Amimnoch]

67. Really!

Doubt the logic of it will sink in with that one though.

Just look at the first reply, a complete strawman arguing a point I didn't even make.

[JHan]

68. dislike of Hillary has bad effects..

Trump is a Minority President, no ifs ,ends or buts.

[politicaljunkie41910]

69. The majority in those states weren't going to vote for her no matter what she said. So don't

blame Clinton because a large portion of the population are fools willing to follow a snake oil salesman who doesn't even allow them to sample the snake oil before making them buy it, with no chance of returning it if they don't get what they bargained for.

[JHan]

63. yeah that's totally why we lost 79,000 votes and the E.C... yes that's THE WHOLE PICTURE /sarcasm

[cilla4progress]

14. Wha

WHAT?!

Do I need to verify this for truthfulness?

Has this made it to FB and the wires yet?

[Historic NY]

15. It was from the state election boards updating their totals....

from 11/9.

[SpankMe]

16. Total votes cast between all these states: Almost 14M.

If 40k votes is all that would need to change, that's 0.3%. Three-tenths of one percent.

Jill Stein got a total of about 131k from those three states. Gary Johnson even more. If even a fraction of those had gone for Hillary instead (subject to the right distribution in each of those states) then Hillary would have had it and the R's would be causing a lot of trouble right now.

Well, they're still causing a lot of trouble, but in a different way!

[Coyotl]

17. Or, put another way: Republicans needed to flip only 40,000 votes to steal the electoral college.

The electoral college makes it far easier to steal the election.

Clinton's victory is now 2.5 million and counting, exceeding the sum of ALL Trump votes in eleven states and DC.

[PoliticAverse]

22. Since states are the ones running the election the electoral college provides some buffer....

from election fraud due to a state run by a single political party "stuffing the ballot box".

[Coyotl]

23. Let's hope so! That would be nice. Never more applicable than today.

[kebob]

19. Hmmmm

Veddy interesting!

[rtracey]

20. well

PAPER BALLOTS, TRANSPARENT BALLOT TABULATION, REPUB, DEM AND INDEPENDENT WITNESSES.....

NO OUTSIDE INFLUENCES

[ProfessorGAC]

46. I've Never Understood The Desperate Need For Anything Other

It's a cultural deficiency that values now over accuracy. So what if it takes a week to count the ballots. Why do we have to insist the ballots be counted by 3am the next day?

[kentuck]

47. Precincts are usually very easy to count.

It's not like we are talking about millions of votes.

[ProfessorGAC]

50. Exactly, Kentuck!

Yet we insist on machines so we get the information right now, and to heck with whether it is accurate.

[lostnfound]

76. It's a cultural deficiency that can't imagine conspiracy

Your point is valid and correct about the "now". But I personally believe that the push for electronic machines (Help America Vote Act) and centralized voter registrations was aided by well meaning people unable to picture that a few people had ulterior motives.

Beginning in 2000, we got election corruption on steroids, from registration database attacks / caging, purged of voters, and skewed tabulators flipping or skimming votes.

[Farmgirl1961]

21. Can someone in PA give us an update on what's going on with the recount effort in PA?

I'm getting a lot of weird FB responses saying that it's not happening...wondering if that is bogus or true or what's going on there? Also, what's the status of WI?

[DeminPennswoods]

26. There's 2 tracks

The Stein campaign went to court to get the recount deadline extended. The court will be hearing the case on Monday, 12/5 and render a decision before the 12/13 deadline to certify its electors.

It's really hard and complicated to file a recount request here. You need to go by individual precincts with 3 voters who live in the precinct signing a petition requesting one. The precincts that cleared that hurdle are scattered but some are in Allegheny County, Montgomery, Bucks and a couple others.

The latest development is that state GOP (surprise!) also going to court to stop a recount.

The law is if the vote margin is less than 1/2%, there's an automatic recount.

[PRETZEL]

31. I thought I heard that the judge in Montco

rejected the recount petitions. Don't have a link though.

I do know that the Board of Elections isn't going to certify the results until 12/12.

[DeminPennswoods]

35. Some counties are withholding certification

I know at least Allegheny and Montgomery counties are withholding certifying their results due to the expected recounts.

[DeminPennswoods]

39. state recount is so byzantine

The PG has a story on the PA GOP trying to block the recounts. The GOP cites the recount law that says if you petition any time after 5 days of the vote, you have to go to state court to present your petition, not to the local election board.

We have Dem gov and atty general so the GOP won't get any support from them. The state supreme court is 4-3 Dem, but they've come down on the side of voters getting to vote in the past, esp knocking down the GOP's voter ID bill here.

[PRETZEL]

41. Found a link

http://www.pottsmerc.com/general-news/20161130/montgomery-county-judge-dismisses-recount-petitions

My other local paper I would have to subscribe but it's the same article.

I also know that the county did indeed invest a great deal of money over the past year to secure it's IT infrastructure and that I would be inclined to agree that Montco's totals are pretty accurate. I believe Sec. Clinton won the county rather convincingly.

[DeminPennswoods]

43. every extra vote matters

I lived in Phila and think the vote there was fine, too, but humans do make mistakes like transposing numbers or mis-reading numbers.

[PRETZEL]

44. I agree

that this is a necessary task and every vote counts whether it's a vote for Stein, Johnson, Clinton or Trump. The integrity of the system has to be first and foremost.

Given more time, I do think the efforts to petition many more districts, especially in Philly where there has historically been the most gamemanship played. But given the nature of the process as it stands, it is a voter driven process and it needed volunteers who had voted in those precints to petition the court to request a recount.

[DeminPennswoods]

48. She's only 15k shy of auto recount

She's only 15,000 votes short of making the cut 1/2% cut for an automatic recount.

[PRETZEL]

49. I really hope she makes it

not sure when Philly and Allegheny county will be done. Not sure if they were able to petition the Scranton-Wilkes Barre areas or not.

[red dog 1]

54. Thanks for that link

"As for the Montgomery County ruling, (Stein's lawyer) Maazel said it was unsure whether the Stein campaign would appeal Judge Moore's decision."?

Why the hell wouldn't they appeal this crappy decision by this idiot judge?

What do they have to lose by appealing?

[PRETZEL]

57. time and money maybe

but the county has been in Dem control for the last few years so maybe their resources might well be better served in other counties.

[orleans]

24. this post on kos says the cook report spreadsheet hasn't been updated

but neither has the pennsylvania board of elections website because they are still showing the around 70,000 difference in penn.
http://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/ENR_New/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=54&ElectionType=G&IsActive=1

[Hoyt]

34. There is so much disinformation on this, you'd think Russia is involved or something.

[Hekate]

27. Kick

[Sunlei]

28. strange. Anyone know if the change is because of provisional vote counts?

[DeminPennswoods]

37. could be or maybe absentee ballots

nt

[spanone]

29. K&R...

[DeminPennswoods]

42. OK, here's the state law

State law: http://codes.findlaw.com/pa/title-25-ps-elections-electoral-districts/pa-st-sect-25-3154.html

Here's what I think will be the ultimate relevent clause:

(g) This subsection relates to recounts and recanvasses ordered by the secretary.

(1) Except as set forth in subsection (h), the secretary shall order a recount and recanvass to all county boards if the unofficial returns prepared in accordance with subsection (f) reflect any of the following:

(i) A candidate for a public office which appears on the ballot in every election district in this Commonwealth was defeated by one-half of a percent or less of the votes cast for the office.  This subclause includes a candidate for retention to a Statewide judicial office.

(ii) A ballot question appearing on the ballot in every election district in this Commonwealth was approved or rejected by one-half of a percent or less of the votes cast on the question.

(2) The secretary shall issue an order under clause (1) by five o'clock P. M. of the second Thursday following the day of the election.

(3) The secretary shall provide twenty-four (24) hours notice of an order under clause (1) to each candidate and to the county chairman of each party or political body affected by the recount and recanvass.  Notice shall be by press release, the World Wide Web site or other means.

(4) A candidate affected by the recount and recanvass may be present, in person or by attorney, at the recount and recanvass.  A party or body affected by the recount and recanvass may send two representatives to the recount and recanvass.

For an automatic recount, she would need to get the margin down to 31,532 - that's .5% of 6.3M+ total votes for president.

[MontanaMama]

53. Wisconsin raised their recount fee

from 1.1 million to 3.5 million.

Bastards.

[iluvtennis]

55. Increasing the cost by 300%...powers that be trying to shutdown the recount. GAH n/t

[TeddyBear 1]

64. Trump halts Michigan Recount

http://www.nbc26.com/news/trumps-objection-halts-michigan-recount

[MontanaMama]

71. The Gropenfuhrer has spoken.

Fucking cheater.....

I am so mad right now.

[bigtree]

75. throwing crap on the wall

...to see if it sticks.

[Cha]

72. K&R!

[Cha]

74. JHC.. that's a huge DROP.

Absentees?

[orleans]

77. don't know if anyone posted this (they probably did)

but the website has been updated!
http://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/ENR_New/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=54&ElectionType=G&IsActive=1

[DesmondFoster]

78. Absentee Ballots

In response to someone's question, I do believe they said that the initial huge drop was absentee ballots. But I read that somewhere days ago and can't remember where I saw it.