Why the Democrats' 2017 comeback dream is like nothing weve seen before
By David Weigel
In 2004, the last time that Democrats comprehensively lost a national election, an argument broke out about how the party should reform. John F. Kerry had been just one state — Ohio — away from victory. Democrats had lost Senate seats in red states, but held their own in the House and in state legislatures. (Republicans netted three seats, but would have lost a net of two seats but for mid-decade gerrymandering in Texas.) Hillary Clinton loomed as the favorite for the party's 2008 presidential nomination, but it was clear to many pundits that the party needed someone else. No, not Barack Obama. Clearly, the party needed a moderate nominee from red America.
There were plenty of takers. Then-Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), who had never lost an election, visited early primary states and warned that “many Americans wonder if Democrats are willing to use force to defend the country even under the most compelling of circumstances.” Then-Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) shamed Democrats for not campaigning harder for Southern voters — at a DNC meeting, where the right people were watching. In a cover story for the New York Times magazine, then-Gov. Mark Warner (D-Va.) suggested he could win moderate Republicans, his implication being that Clinton could not.
Clinton, indeed, did not win the 2008 nomination. Sixteen years of speculation about her inevitable presidency ended on Nov. 8. But the hand-wringing of 2005 is just as instructive as the Republicans' hand-wringing of 2013. In recent history, the most confident analysts of our political parties have argued that victory will come through moderation. They have been completely wrong. Barack Obama became the first Democrat since FDR to win two popular vote majorities; Donald Trump became the first Republican since Ronald Reagan to win most of the Midwest.
In both cases, the winning party did not so much moderate its stances as run against the failure of the incumbent party. That failure was obvious in 2008 — arguably, as early as mid-2006 — in George W. Bush's low approval ratings and the collapsing economy. It was tougher for Democrats to see in 2016, as Obama's approval numbers were high and the metrics usually used to gauge the health of the economy, like employment, stock markets, and GDP, were moving the right way.
more
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/12/31/why-the-democrats-2017-comeback-dream-is-like-nothing-weve-seen-before/?utm_term=.65454971ccf7&wpisrc=nl_evening&wpmm=1