Trump risks 'war' with Beijing if US blocks access to South China Sea, state media warns

[rug]

Threats by Rex Tillerson, would-be secretary of state, to stop access to islands are ‘mish-mash of naivety and shortsightedness’, says China Daily

Benjamin Haas in Hong Kong
Thursday 12 January 2017 22.59 EST

The US risks a “large-scale war” with China if it attempts to blockade islands in the South China Sea, Chinese state media has said, adding that if recent statements become policy when Donald Trump takes over as president “the two sides had better prepare for a military clash”.

China has controversially built fortifications and artificial islands across the South China Sea. Rex Tillerson, Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, said China’s “access to those islands … is not going to be allowed”.

China claims nearly the entire area, with rival claims by five south-east Asian neighbours and Taiwan.

Tillerson did not specify how the US would block access but experts agreed it could only be done by a significant show of military force. Tillerson likened China’s island building to “Russia’s taking of Crimea”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/13/trump-risks-war-with-beijing-us-blocks-access-south-china-sea-state-media

[gordianot]

1. American media ignored this festering sore during the lead up to the election.

I never heard the South China Sea mentioned by the debate moderators. This area is the most likely cradle of World War III. Definitely no Kennedy brothers to save our ass this time.

[rug]

3. The blustering, arrogance, and general stupidity of the trump administration exacerbates the danger.

[LittleBlue]

14. Agreed. They cannot be allowed the precedent of creating artificial islands

and then claiming the 200 mile radius of surrounding water as Chinese territorial waters. At some point, someone is going to have to stand up to them.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

2. I'm afraid war is exactly what our President Elect and his cronies want.

So many benefits for them.

[gordianot]

4. Reaganites thought about limited nuclear war.

After studying the possibility of limited nuclear war there is nothing ahead of assured destruction of 99.99% of the worlds population who does not have luxurious bunkers. Look at what is going to run this country does anyone have the vaguest illusion they care about anyone?

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

10. I don't understand how the American people have become so clueless

as to put the lives of themselves, their families and friends, and the rest of humanity in the hands of an vengeful, impulsive, irresponsible hothead. I may not make it to the nuclear disaster. I think my head may just explode any minute now.

[BSdetect]

12. Bunkers are long term useless investments

You may survive a few months but you will go nuts in there.

Nothing worth doing after you emerge.

[neverforget]

7. War between the US and China would make Russia more

powerful. Our economies depend on each and our militaries would obviously be focused on each other. Assuming Russia remains neutral, they could sit back and watch us weaken each other. Or, they could make their moves against the Baltic States or whoever else they want to. Our conventional military would be stretched thin with China. This is where nukes come into the picture and the orange shit gibbon doesn't know why we haven't used them in 75 years.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

8. Horrifying truths.

All who voted for him are responsible for this impending tragedy.

[smirkymonkey]

5. God help us.

[TheBlackAdder]

6. I don't recall Trump's denouncement of "Russia's taking of Crimea," so he should be good with it.

[BSdetect]

13. Did he know about Crimea?

He certainly did not know about Ukraine.

He's pig ignorant in all matters except getting into debt.

[spanone]

9. these fuckers are so NOT ready for prime time.

[malaise]

11. The US will learn that she does not own the planet

Soon and very soon

[LittleBlue]

15. Go compare the Chinese and US navies

It's not even close. We have more naval power, by far, than the rest of the world combined.

The Chinese will be taught a harsh lesson like they did during the Clinton administration (assuming they don't bribe Trump with a new hotel, then all bets are off)

[KingCharlemagne]

18. 1.6 billion vs. 320 million. Are you smoking crack????? - nt

[LittleBlue]

19. Unless those 1.3bn can walk on water, they're just more collateral damage

The only Chinese carrier is an old Soviet one they bought from Russia. It's garbage and would last more than a minute against any of ours. We also have carrier groups with AEGIS anti-missile shields to protect the carriers, along with an escort of attack subs.

You could put the US navy vs all the navies of the world and the world would lose in a matter of days or hours. It wouldn't even be close.

[KingCharlemagne]

21. I hope China kicks our fucking ass. we have been asking for it for at least 50 years. those

Aircraft carriers are mighty big, fat floating targets.

[LittleBlue]

22. China literally cannot win this

Say they did "kick our ass". Say they have a magic wand that could destroy our military. We would stop trading with them. Our allies would stop trading with them. No important countries are supporting their claim to the South China Sea. Their neighbors hate them. Attacking us for following international law would result in them being treated as a pariah. That's trillions sucked out of their economy. They are heavily indebted and need high GDP growth to stay ahead of their creditors. Their municipal debt levels are unseen in history.

Point is, we don't even need our military to cripple them. They are so reliant upon exports and FDI that maintaining good relations with trading partners is their lifeblood. Cut that off and it's all over before a military conflict would even begin.

Their best hope is to run out the time until Trump is impeached and pray that Pence is pro-Chinese.

[KingCharlemagne]

24. Said Douglas MacArthur, as he crossed the 38th Parallel. - nt

[FrankfurtCat]

16. China "owns" the US financially. They can destroy our economy with ease.

"China's position as America's largest banker gives it some political leverage. Now and then, China threatens to sell part of its debt holdings. It knows that, if it did so, U.S. interest rates would rise, which would slow U.S economic growth. China often calls for a new global currency to replace the dollar, which is used in most international transactions. China does this whenever the U.S. allows the value of the dollar to drop, which makes the debt China holds less valuable.

What Would Happen If China Called in Its Debt Holdings?
China would not call in its debt all at once. If it did so, the demand for the dollar would plummet like a rock. This dollar collapse would disrupt international markets worse than the 2008 financial crisis. China's economy would suffer along with everyone else's.

It's more likely that China would slowly begin selling off its Treasury holdings. Even when it just warns that it plans to do so, dollar demand starts to drop. That hurts China's competitiveness. As it raises its export prices, U.S. consumers would buy American products instead. China must further expand its exports to other Asian countries and increase domestic demand. Only then can it call in its U.S. debt holdings."



More at article:

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355

[bdamomma]

23. China will not bow down to this juvenile/bully

all they have to say Pay up, we will become bankrupt.

[KingCharlemagne]

17. The U.S. had better prepare itself for a major ass-kicking. - nt

[Downtown Hound]

20. I've never supported China's claim to the South China Sea and always thought they were being bullies

But they have every right to sail there and if we block their access then we are the aggressors.