Handicapping Trumps first 100 days

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Trump’s campaign promises have run into trouble with his own party — even his own Cabinet members — before he even takes the oath of office.

Donald Trump’s presidency will ultimately be measured by whether he can transform the bombastic, details-free campaign style that propelled him to victory into substantive policy actions that look like success to the American people.

The obstacles are already piling up: Building the U.S.-Mexico wall requires money that isn’t there. Repealing Obamacare is an easy vote, but Republicans are thoroughly divided about how to replace it. Pulling out of a trade deal takes little more than a signature. But negotiating new ones — on Trump’s terms — will require more diplomatic skill and compromise than Trump has shown at any point during his remarkable run for the presidency.

The barriers to real policy success are innumerable and unpredictable. From tax reform to national security challenges to economic uncertainties, Trump’s campaign promises have run into trouble with his own party — even his own Cabinet members — before he even takes the oath of office.

One hundred days is an arbitrary period of time to assess a new presidency — blame FDR and the New Deal for that one. Nonetheless, POLITICO assigned its policy reporting teams to handicap the road ahead for the first 100 days of the Trump administration, identifying the policy ideas, the leaders and the obstacles that will be used to define success or failure of the new White House.

HEALTH CARE

The vision: Trump has promised to repeal the Affordable Care Act, which he has repeatedly called a “disaster.” He says he’ll replace it with cheaper and better insurance for “everybody.” But Trump splits with congressional Republicans who want to overhaul Medicare by partially privatizing it. He sides with Republicans on proposals to turn Medicaid, the health care program geared to the poor, into lump-sum state payments — an idea that Democrats abhor. He also wants to allow government health programs to negotiate drug prices, a stance sure to alienate Republicans and the powerful drug lobby.

Key leaders: Trump; Vice President Mike Pence; House Speaker Paul Ryan; Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.), Trump’s pick for Health and Human Services secretary; Seema Verma, Trump’s pick to head the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Outlook for the first 100 days: Trump has promised executive actions on Day One to begin rolling back Obama’s health law. Many health officials also expect action in the near term to prop up the Obamacare exchanges so they don’t implode during the transition period. The timeline for congressional action on repeal-and-replace legislation is extremely iffy: Trump has indicated his administration would submit its own plan “almost simultaneously, shortly thereafter” when his pick for secretary of Health and Human Services is confirmed.

Obstacles: Devising a plan that satisfies conservative Republicans implacably opposed to a major federal role (or expense) in health care, while winning over at least eight Senate Democrats needed to pass legislation, will be daunting — especially without upending his own base by taking health coverage away from 20 million people, including many of his voters.

The vision: Trump has promised to revive the U.S. manufacturing sector, beef up the enforcement of existing trade deals and punish companies that move jobs overseas. His top priorities include pulling out of trade agreements like the massive Trans-Pacific Partnership, which the Obama administration negotiated and hoped to get ratified before leaving office, and renegotiating NAFTA. Trump and members of his incoming Cabinet say they’re not against trade but see a need for stronger deals, preferably bilateral agreements.

With a triumvirate of China hawks leading his trade policy, Trump is pledging to challenge China’s use of tariffs, subsidies and other barriers to gain an unfair trade advantage. Trump also says he wants to cut the U.S. trade deficit by boosting exports and reducing imports, and he wants to slap hefty tariffs on imports of products from companies that move factories elsewhere.

Key leaders: Leading Trump’s trade policy will be trade attorney Robert Lighthizer as U.S. trade representative, economics professor Peter Navarro as head of the newly formed National Trade Council and billionaire investor Wilbur Ross as Commerce secretary. While USTR traditionally takes the lead in negotiating trade policy, Trump has said that Ross, at Commerce, will be the chief architect of his agenda.