Is the U.S. on course for a breakup?

[singed.dude]

Thirty years ago (late 1980's), I considered the possibility that the U.S. would eventually breakup into five or six countries aligned geographically or economically. For example, Texas would eventually become a nation again, but Texas would also include New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Louisiana. The breakup would be caused by political divisions that were evident in the the Reagan era.

Now, given the political climate of the last 9 years, my gut feeling is that the probability of a breakup is now significantly higher. Three factors lead me to this belief:

1. Increased negativity of conservative political beliefs and ideology.

2. Increased differences in economic success among the states. According to Business Insider (RANKED: The economies of all 50 US states and Washington, DC, from worst to best), among the top 15 states are: Washington state, District of Columbia, Colorado, Massachussetts, California, Oregon, New York, New Hampshire, and Minnesota - blue states. All but one of the bottom 13 states in the same list are red states.

3. Increased intolerance. This is rather obvious, given the political rhetoric since June 16, 2015 when Trump descended the escalator and announced his candidacy for President.

If what we have seen so far in the past 9 years continues unabated, in my opinion, there is better than a 50/50 chance that the U.S. will break up during the time frame between 2020-2030.

My concept of the breakup:

1. California will be the first state to secede and declare sovereignty (call it the California Republic, or CR).

2. If the CR is successful, Oregon and Washington will secede, and join the CR (call it CR+).

3. If the CR+ is successful, Hawaii will secede and join the CR+.

4. New England states, New York, and possibly 3 other states in the Northeast will secede, then join together to form a new country. Or, they may petition Canada for admission.

5. Depending the level of success of the new countries, other states like Colorado and New Mexico may secede and form their own country, or possibly join the CR+.

6. Arizona and Nevada might secede and join the CR+, depending on those states' demographic trends over the next 20 years.

7. If the CR+ and the new country formed from the NE states are successful, Texas secedes.

8. If all of the above happens, Alaska will secede and become independent.

[tinrobot]

1. I see it as a possibility

Not sure if it will actually happen without war or some sort of altercation. It also depends on the political climate in 2020-30 and beyond.

I do agree that West Coast will go first if it happens.

[Warpy]

26. I think we'd have to lose a world war first

and if we get into one of those, there is no way we can win it since we've lost so much of our manufacturing capacity.

[Initech]

39. Or a Civil War.

Which I think is a perfect storm just waiting to strike.

[Fast Walker 52]

44. yeah, I could see it

[Warpy]

49. In that case, I can see NM making the Interstates impassable while

opening up the border with Mexico, which is where we get much of our food. There is no way this state would join either right wing Arizona or a new California Republic or Texas to the east. I really think we'd have to look south.

[struggle4progress]

2. This is a long-standing wet-dream of the anti-regulatory ideologues

[alittlelark]

3. New Mexico will NEVER join Texas....

[KatyMan]

21. And Texas would NEVER be aligned with Oklahoma

[milestogo]

4. In many states the divide seems to be urban vs rural.

Not sure how that divides up.

[Fast Walker 52]

45. it's all states, really

but just blue states have more people in urban areas to balance it out

[adigal]

56. I agree with this...I actually like this idea, because I am sick of red states taking out tax $$

and then making up 18th century laws for us. I am disgusted over this.

But I live in very red and rural upstate NY. NYC might want to go and even win an election over this, but the people up here would never want to leave the 18th century red states. And what of my friends in the red states??? I would hate that they were abandoned by us.

[politicaljunkie41910]

68. Or the Makers vs Takers as most of those Red States receive more benefits from the Federal Goverment

in handouts than what they pay into the Treasury in taxes.

[Initech]

5. Russia's wet dream.

And having a Putin-approved puppet in the White House will make it go faster.

[flamingdem]

59. I agree and am suspicious of ANY "innocent" talk about breaking up the USA

Putin elves are being paid to spread this idea

[TheFrenchRazor]

76. i don't check with russia before i form an opinion; i check with facts and evidence. nt

[onenote]

6. no.

No one is seceding. And its fantasy to think anyone is.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. How do people who literally loathe one another live together in perpetuity if not by force?

[onenote]

11. Well, since there are republicans and Democrats in every state, I'll put the same question to you

How many different countries will California end up being?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I don't know...

As to Deplorables I'm reminded of James Carville famous quote about a political enemy that he wouldn't piss down his throat if his heart was on fire:

"I wouldn't piss down that son of a bitch's (Jerry Falwell) throat if his heart was on fire."

-James Carville

[Fast Walker 52]

31. the rural-urban divide in this country is tremendous and getting worse

I really don't understand why it's so vast, but more than anything else it explains the rise of the GOP and how they dominate us, including Trump. Is it just thye've managed to appeal to rural voters better or is there something else going on?

[kimbutgar]

41. I think it is the damn talk radio that is controlled by right wing broadcasters/ interests

When you drive though thoses areas the only radio available. talkers are right wing and religious bs. Since they need their cars to get everywhere they are hostage to that radio because there is nothing else on. I saw this in my co workers who had long commutes home who became right wing while driving home that night. The only exception was those who took Bart, or the train.

Serious brainwashing going on in rural areas.

[Fast Walker 52]

43. good point... I know a lot of it has to do with rightwing media

so fuck, the left HAS to start getting on those channels

[onenote]

65. that's ridiculous

The idea that large numbers of people have access to only one radio station and that station inevitably is a RW talk affiliate is silly.
Here's list, with format, of every radio station licensed to a community in the state of Georgia. If you found a map of these signals coverage areas you'd see enormous overlap.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_radio_stations_in_Georgia_(U.S._state)

Long before talk radio there was divisions within the country. Pretending otherwise and thinking that if only talk radio was gone everyone would share our political views is not going to help us win elections.

[Fast Walker 52]

70. ok, what's your explanation and how do we win these folks?

It didn't used to be like that, at least not so strongly? I know FDR had a good share of the rural vote.

[pangaia]

33. This says it all..

"“We all knew he wouldn’t be your standard president and we’d have to put up with some shenanigans,” said the 41-year-old pharmacist. “But it might be a positive for the country to have someone who’s not a polished politician in office.”


Total and inexcusable ignorance.

[kimbutgar]

47. Appalling to think that way about a demonstrable insane man

Idocracy, the movie is now a documentary.

[Initech]

40. I drove through this area a couple of weeks ago going to Tahoe.

Lots of pro-Trump signs. I even saw one that said "pray for rain" right next to a sign that says "make America great again". That told me all I needed to know.

[adigal]

58. I think that conservative blue staters would be free to leave for red states and vice versa??

I like that idea.

And really, the conservatives would kill us if they could. Not the moderates, but at least 25% of them. I believe that firmly. So how do we continue?

[politicaljunkie41910]

71. A few years ago, they tried to get a ballot initiative voted on which would have divided California

into 5 separate states. Obviously it failed but that initiative would provide you a blueprint.

[Hekate]

18. Same way we always have: laws, norms, and common agreement

Trojan Horse TrumpBannon is trying to break all that. It is up to us to stop him. Just like their attempts to break the free press: it's up to the press (media) to stand up and say no.

There was a time when white supremacists and their filthy ilk were consigned to the socially-unacceptable fringes. They've always been there -- they really can't be entirely eliminated.

But they can and will be sent back from whence they came.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Well

There was a time when white supremacists and their filthy ilk were consigned to the socially-unacceptable fringes.

Fringes? they control all three levels of government.

Same way we always have: laws, norms, and common agreement

I believe I speak for many when I say there is nothing we and the Deplorables agree upon. I have more in common with your nominal Canadian or German than I can ever have with a Deplorable.

[grantcart]

34. What makes you think that people who are in total disagreement would agree to seperate

except by force?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. Does that mean the states will be held together by sheer force like the former Soviet republics?

What a future in store for a once proud nation.

[grantcart]

48. Soviet Union, unlike the US, was never a voluntary union.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. I remember eleven states who left the Union of their own volition.

Even the Catholic church allowed unhappy unions to dissolve via annulment. That's actually a handy analogy. Annulments mean the marriage never actually happened. Californians would never voluntarily enter into a union with West Virginians if they knew what values they would one day hold.

[grantcart]

55. You are missing the point completely.

The US is the result of soveirgn people petitioning and participating in a constitutional government articulated by principles.

The USSR was created after successive collapses of governments until no one supported the Provisional Government. The Communist party was a small part of the minority coalition. The Boleshevics were a minority of the Communist party.

At the time they took over the Boleshevics were the only group willing to show up and take over the instruments of power.

They were able to put the SU together by mass murder and arrest. Pointless to compare it with the US.

Question wasn't why it broke up but how did it stay together so long.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. What principles ?

The US is the result of soveirgn people petitioning and participating in a constitutional government articulated by principles.

The Deplorables' principles or more specifically values, characteristics or attributes are homophobia, racism, sexism, xenophobia, anti-semitism, nativism, ableism, misogyny, Islamophobia, and sexual predation.

Those aren't my values or principles. For all the paeans to principles and highfalutin rhetoric we have nothing in common.

[grantcart]

62. The same principles that gave the judge in Seattle the POWER

to stop the Muslim ban and the District 9 Court of Appeals to uphold the ban.

The court ruled and the government has complied all based on principles. No arrests, no murders.

If you don't understand the basic difference in the history of the USSR and the US then further discussion is pointless.

The US is not close to breaking up and any discussion that suggests it might be is nothing more than nuttery, just like discussions about Texas seceding under Obama were.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

63. The Deplorables and Drumpf would eliminate that judge by any means necessary if they could.

The Deplorables and Drumpf would eliminate that judge by any means necessary if they could which brings us back to principles and that principle is the only thing that hold us together is force, the respective history of us and Russia/Union of Soviet Socialist Republics notwithstanding.

I have more in common with your nominal Australian or Canadian than I can ever have with a Deplorable.

If you don't understand the basic difference in the history of the USSR and the US then further discussion is pointless.

I know the difference between the two. My grandparents fled Byelorussia after the Revolution of 1905 , one step ahead of the latest pogrom. Sadly it is now following me here via the Drumpf-Bannon-Putin Axis.

[Bucky]

7. a week ago we were on the verge. But the Superbowl brought us back together

in a shared hatred for the Patriots

[Fast Walker 52]

32. hahaha!

yes!

[Averagegrunt]

8. Nopity nope nope

[bravenak]

10. Alaska cannot afford independence.

We would likely join canada or be given to Putin by DT

[Averagegrunt]

15. That would suck Alaska is awesome

[bravenak]

17. It sure is

[kimbutgar]

12. I see this being accelerated in the next 4 years

Chump has divided us in ways I never expected in my lifetime. Family, friends and co workers are divided. Our government has been ungovernable and no longer represents the will of the people but monied interests that fooled 60 million people to vote for a candidate and a party who lied and deceives them with fake media. Since these people can no longer can determine reality and facts they will follow this illegimate chump and congress down a hell hole of their own making and the rest of us sane people and states will say no. We are saying "HELL NO" in unprecedented numbers in the last 15 days. Chump and his rethug party enablers are the catalyst for a breakdown of this country. Something is going to happen that makes people snap and we will be stunned when it happens.


United we thrive divided we fall. We are heading towards an epic fall. God help us all!

[Fast Walker 52]

36. yes, it's all so fucked up that something has to give

I'm hoping reality wins and the GOP collapses, but who knows...

[DanTex]

13. Doubtful, but if it were an option I would be in favor.

Problem is, it requires changing the constitution. But if it were an option, I'd happily let the red states have their dystopia while blue states have civil societies.

[NCjack]

16. I hope it doesn't happen before the end of the Super Bowl. nt

[Hekate]

20. No. It's science fiction. I can point you to the shelf in the bookstore.

[Calista241]

23. Some people in California may want to secede but it will NEVER happen.

First of all, there's a shitload of people in CA that won't want to go. What do you do with those people? Can the state survive without those people that choose to leave?

Second, it's only recently that CA has become a donor state, and for hundreds of years, the Feds have subsidized the state and infrastructure built in CA, to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. They Feds are going to demand some payback for that investment before just letting CA go.

Third, all of the military hardware there, and the military itself will be recalled to the other states. California natives would probably be discharged, but those soldiers, sailors and Marines swore to the US Constitution, not to an unnamed free state of California.

Then California will have to negotiate with the rest of the US for access to air corridors, water resources, immigration, travel, citizenship, food etc.

All of that is assuming the politicians leading the secessionist movement aren't arrested, convicted of sedition and living the rest of their lives in SuperMax prison. And it's assuming that the President and the military don't move in to Sacramento and put a Federal emergency manager in charge.

The simple location and importance of the massive ports in CA are enough of a reason for the US to go to war to prevent secession.

[AllaN01Bear]

24. when my late mum was a little girl , her teachers warned that this could happen

they showed her many different maps. viva reformed california, viva reformed usa.

[WinkyDink]

51. What kind of ignorant "teachers" did she have?

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

25. I think I will live to see an independent California, but I also think I will live to see 100.

I would not personally support it today. But I think the economic might of California and the political hegemony of the Methbelt are going to continue to clash. If economic policy is going to be dictated by angry white assholes in Ohio in the coming years no matter who is in the White House we're on a collision course.

California separatism is going to be a result of federal policies economically smothering California over the course of decades. The problem is what is good for California and what is good for Ohio are mutually exclusive. There is no economic interest in California that benefits from protectionism, there is no economic interest in California that benefits from barriers to travel and immigration.

It will take decades for that consensus to form in California and California has to be resilient in the face of those pressures.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

67. But they need our tax receipts and if they destroy what makes us great they won't get it.

[democratisphere]

27. 6-8 Seperate Nations would make good sense.

We are a nation divided so let's get to it.

[pangaia]

28. This is EXACTLY what Dugin and the Russians are promoting and what they want.

[Nevermypresident]

29. Bannon is in support of California secession,

if I recall. He would love to see those blue electoral votes go away.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

53. Bannon has lived in California for thirty years

[Turbineguy]

30. The last time

the break-up did not work out.

[Yupster]

38. That's what I was thinking

Where's the part about the US Army coming in, burning down California's cities, tearing up the roads, destroying the crops and dragging anything of value back to Texas?

There are a lot of southerners who would love to volunteer to invade California and bring the loot home.

[raccoon]

35. If this happens, I hope I can be granted political asylum in a new blue nation. nt

[adigal]

60. Yes, we would have to do that and I would love to send some of my neighbors to red states!! nt

[DesertRat]

37. No

[Stinky The Clown]

46. The divide is between the US and Dumbfuckistan

And that follows the urban/rural divide, not any geographic divide.

[kairos12]

64. Any breakup would have an exodus across State lines from red and blue populations

that would make the founding of Pakistan look like a romper room show.

[liberal N proud]

52. People are too geographically connected across regions

Families are spread far and wide.
Companies are not regional.

The logistics of a break up are just too difficult.

[MarvinGardens]

54. In the South, it is a rural / urban divide.

Atlanta is heavily blue, in red Georgia. We had 60,000 for our local women's march. Here in the suburban Gwinnett county, it is mixed, but we went narrowly for Hillary. One county further out and they went heavily for Trump, and that is generally true for majority white rural areas. Then there are also majority black rural counties down south that went for Hillary. Our neighbors in Alabama, Birmingham declared themselves a sanctuary city, in very red Alabama.

So how do you split that up? I don't even see Georgia joining some red dystopian confederacy because it would be so contentious. There would be civil war within the state. To Californians considering Calexit, I would ask them to please vote against it. We are on your side, and time will ultimately be on our side. Please stay with us and help us save America!

[ManiacJoe]

61. It is an interesting academic exercise,

but before you get too far coming up with who goes where, you first need to devise a legal way for a state to level the union.

[Kilgore]

66. Mental masturbation

Feels good to discuss, but will never nappen

[jg10003]

69. Map of the former United States; repost from 3 months ago.

I posted this a few years ago as a lark, but now I think it is inevitable.



Notes:
1) I had trouble deciding if Mountainland and Midland should be one nation or two. I decided on two because I thought Colorado and Nebraska wouldn’t get along.

2) Hispanica may or may not decide to become part of Mexico.

3) Regarding Alaska; Russia invades Alaska after the collapse of the United States government. Canada counterattacks with the support of England, other Commonwealth nations, and whatever remains of NATO. After a few weeks of fighting, Russia and England come very close to a nuclear war. The United Nations then negotiates a partition similar to that of North and South Korea. The result is what is shown on the map.

4) All the scientists at Duke University, UNC, Rice, Vanderbilt, etc. are banished from New Christendom. They seek refuge in my country of South Florida. As a result the Republic of South Florida becomes the world’s leading center of scientific research.

[Yupster]

72. My first thought is

how would you like to be a Tanzanian soldier stationed in the middle of the Alaskan DMZ?

[Yupster]

73. I don't think the nation of Midland would be viable

Too much food and not enough population to protect it.

My guess is Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska would join New Christendom.

The Dakotas might join them or more likely join the Mountain states.

Iowa? I don't know where they'd go?

On edit, I'd also expect The two northeast nations to combine.

Actually a pretty interesting What if.

[fescuerescue]

74. I think it's possible, but impossible to predict the outcome

It won't be neat and tidy and predictable ahead of time.

It's be messy, bloody and we will all be in much worse condition that we started.

[TheFrenchRazor]

75. we can hope; it is probably the only way for dems to have any kind of national power. nt

[delisen]

77. Who gets the Nuclear Arsenal? A sovereign Alaska Becomes part of Russia