Analysis: Racism motivated Trump voters more than authoritarianism or income inequality

[mcar]

Can we please stop the "we have to reach out to poor Trump voters" lament?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/04/17/racism-motivated-trump-voters-more-than-authoritarianism-or-income-inequality/?tid=pm_pop&utm_term=.76db27d590b1

...Let the analyses begin. Last week, the widely respected 2016 American National Election Study was released, sending political scientists into a flurry of data modeling and chart making.

The ANES has been conducted since 1948, at first through in-person surveys, and now also online, with about 1,200 nationally representative respondents answering some questions for about 80 minutes. This incredibly rich, publicly funded data source allows us to put elections into historical perspective, examining how much each factor affected the vote in 2016 compared with other recent elections...

Since 1988, we’ve never seen such a clear correspondence between vote choice and racial perceptions. The biggest movement was among those who voted for the Democrat, who were far less likely to agree with attitudes coded as more racially biased...

Racial attitudes made a bigger difference in electing Trump than authoritarianism.

[Squinch]

1. This needs to be pinned somewhere.

[mcar]

2. It's a good analysis

Thanks Squinch.

[Squinch]

7. Thank YOU, mcar. I am with you: I'm done having that discussion. It's self defeating.

[TomCADem]

16. In the 1960s, This Was Well Understood

[Caliman73]

19. It has been understood by a good number of people for a long time.

The problem is that it is not accepted by the vast majority of people, many of whom hold racially biased attitudes, but will swear up and down that "those things are in the past" because we no longer have lynching parties.

Hell, I am a person of color, brought up in a pretty racially diverse area of Los Angeles, and I saw and experienced the racial tensions up close. I saw the prejudice in my own family. I have to actively confront myself not to slip into easy and convenient stereotypes and I try to check myself consistently. Most people just go on about their daily lives not thinking about those things, especially when they are living in semi-segregated areas or don't have it in their face all the time.

With the constant trumpeting of "American Exceptionalism" those of us who know we have to confront our ugly past and the effects of it that are still being felt now, are often called "America haters" or unpatriotic, even by people on our own side of the political spectrum.

They say that knowing is half the battle. The problem with us as a nation is that the other half, the actually doing something about what we know, seems to be impossible right now.

[JI7]

42. yes, because no matter how much evidence some will go back to the same talking points

and try to claim it was about trade, jobs etc.

[Cha]

44. Bookmarking and adding to my journal!

Squinch

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. I expect more racism from people who vote Republican for President

And that is the line Trump ran on. I sure as hell never thought most Trump voters backed him because of income inequality.

We can't do shit about many social ills if we lose elections though. Sometimes "soft" racists (e.g. non white supremacists) vote for the Democrat despite their racial prejudices - because of other issues. They "help" us win some close elections.

It's pretty much of a given that Republicans win the racist vote and Democrats win the racial justice vote. Not every voter is highly motivated to vote through identifying with either end of that continuum though . Of course we can't (and shouldn't) compete for most of Trump's voters. And we can never pander to racist views. But there were things we could have done to stem the loss of some voters who shifted their support from America's first African American President to Donald Trump. We could have won the rust belt, and Hillary Clinton would be president today if we did.

[JI7]

41. not always, McCain and Romney did not get the turnout among racists as Trump got

we got lucky with them as the candidates running against obama because it could have been far uglier .

[Tom Rinaldo]

47. Yes, that's true. Even with George W. Bush before that. None of them proudly waved the racist flag.

Many of their political allies on their side of the aisle certainly still did, but recent Republican standard bearers prior to Trump mostly let Republican operatives in the trenches blow the dog whistles for them. Trump proudly seats the racists at his head table. One thing I will say about W" is that he personally is not overtly racist (his policies were another story) - but his campaign sure as hell played the race card against McCain in the South Carolina primary in 2000 when the chips were down and his career depended on it. Most Republicans will do anything it takes to win.

So yeah I agree it could have been far uglier against Obama if a number of other Republicans had been the candidate opposing him. Really, really, ugly. America mostly dodged a lethal bullet, I hate to think what would have gone on in this nation if Trump ran directly against Obama. Your point is well taken. Still racists in recent decades, since Nixon's "Southern strategy", have mostly defaulted to supporting Republicans. Trump though defacto encourages them to wear their robes in public.

[WomenRising2017]

4. Some appear to be denying this fact

Any honest examination or analysis of the 2016 election needs to address this.

[mcar]

5. Yes

[certainot]

38. an honest and very useful analysis would also include talk radio

and that is probably the closest association outside of 'white'.

dems have completely blown it over the last 30 years and completely ignored talk radio while it worked tirelessly to, among other things, make racism 'acceptable' and sell the idiocy that white privilege is a myth.

playing to the rust belt middle class etc is definitely the recipe for disaster but the real question should be in analyzing 2016, for which 'talk radio' is the answer, should be - how the hell have people like bush, palin, trump even get close to the white house?

[Orrex]

6. This should be repeated 1,000 times over, IMO.

Additional discussion on this issue here:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10028939957#post3

[Paladin]

8. I'll be damned if I'll abandon my Democratic standards for such people.

We can prevail without them.

[brer cat]

9. I agree, mcar.

That is a very good analysis. Thanks for posting.

[Lil Missy]

10. Aaaand .. another one to be filed in the "No Shit Sherlock" files. n/t

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. Even when racism is at top of list by a bit, poverty & other issues are still useful approaches. nt

[Caliman73]

21. It is all linked.

Poverty, lack of opportunity, and other elements of community breakdown are correlated with racial bias and institutional racism. No one can say that it is 100% of the problem, but if the idea that people have been historically and are presently denied true equal opportunity because of their skin color or ethnicity, is not confronted then we won't get anywhere on those other issues. Bernie did a good job on the economic situation, but he made some pretty big miscalculations when he did not actively address the racial elements of poverty and lack of opportunity.

We should be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.

[IronLionZion]

12. As a brown American, I've been in denial about this for some time

a lot of people kept it close to the vest until after the election. And then they smugly started saying that even born and raised US citizens like me are going to be thrown out of my own country for stealing jobs from real Americans.

It's completely irrational and I thought Americans were better than this. I had hope for my fellow humans to have more decency.

It's very disappointing

[Squinch]

32. "I thought Americans were better than this." That has been the heartbreak of this election.

We always knew the racism and the sexism were there, and we knew they were strong, but I for one (a woman, so a recipient of one of those bigotries) never realized just how pervasive it is.

I had always assumed that we vastly outnumbered them. We DO outnumber them (have to keep reminding ourselves of that) but by a much thinner margin than I ever imagined.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

13. Every POC knew that as did most HRC voters

[bettyellen]

31. Yeah and a lot of people tried to tell me it was "no big deal"

Hope that shit is laid to rest now. Did I drag you back here-lol? If so, apologies dear friend.

[NastyRiffraff]

14. Many of us already knew this

and have been pilloried here at DU for refusing to kiss Trump voters' collective ass. It's good to see a study confirming it.

[greymattermom]

15. Just ask folks a question like this

Would you rather have a nonwhite person sit at the table with you, or perhaps at the table next to you, or would you rather have no table and no food? Trump will take your table and your food.

[CousinIT]

17. + sexism from what I hear in my own personal sphere & elsewhere. n/t

[mcar]

22. Funny that wasn't assessed in this analysis

[58Sunliner]

18. Did they ask about sexism? No they did not. Our first female candidate and they did not bother

to ask if sexism was a factor???? Oh that's right. It was MEN asking the questions. Talk about irony. Because people who voted for DT were overwhelmingly men across the racial spectrum. Wow. How did we miss that shit??

[rocktivity]

20. DING DING DING! 58Sunliner, you're our grand prize winner!

Our first female candidate and they did not bother to ask if sexism was a factor????

P.S. Hillary WON the election, remember guys? It was the electoral college that she lost. More people DID vote FOR her than against her. Back the the drawing board with you...


rocktivity

[mcar]

23. You're right about that

[Hortensis]

24. #1: Yes, yes, yes! #2: Did they ask about

the effects of partisanship, i.e., increasingly virulent attitudes toward Democrats/liberals that display all the characteristics of bigotry?

In both gender and political leaning, we are talking about "bias"/bigotry. I believe if measured sex and race would each average out as less of a factor than political party/right versus left, even if race was a close chaser. The negatives of both are implacably associated with Democrats, democratic policies, liberalism. There's a reason Rush starts topic after topic with some version of, "Folks, you'll never guess what the Democrats are up to now!"

I believe hyperpartisanship is the greatest danger to democracy. But that this important poll did not attempt to measure sexism as a factor for the first election that brought a woman to the gates of the White House is in itself a huge failure that undermines all regults.

[mainer]

27. Multitasking is only for women

Asking about sexism was just one more task they couldn't get around to.

[Squinch]

29. This absolutely. But one thing we can be pretty sure of: it wasn't finances.

[CousinIT]

36. Exactly.

[IronLionZion]

37. Racism and sexism trumped feminism and diversity

There millions more women voters than men. The fact that more women vote, is one of many factors why we expected Hillary to win big.

Red states pass laws trying to stop minorities from voting. They purge voter rolls and gerrymander districts based on race.

Who is stopping women from voting?

I worry about minorities who voted with the racists. I also worry about women who voted for the grabber.

[JI7]

39. yes, sexism was a huge factor. but it was only white men who voted for Trump in large numbers

non white men went for hillary.

[radius777]

45. Please. PoC males voted overwhelmingly for Hillary,

as we do any Democrat, the party of civil rights.

White women are the issue you should be addressing, they've voted GOP since 1996, the party that actively attempts to put them back in the kitchen and take away all of their rights.

They voted for a man in Trump who is gleeful in his disdain for women, while turning their noses up at the party/candidate that fights for feminism/choice, and who could've become the first female president.

[JTFrog]

51. And PoC females were her biggest block, what's your point?

Did someone blame this on PoC? No, they blamed it on racism, so your post makes no sense whatsoever.

That doesn't discount the fact that sexism was a huge fucking issue and it wasn't even included. There are plenty of sexist women out there unfortunately, but I still think that they manipulated the vote totals and we will never know where they padded them. To pretend sexism played no part is to basically just throw a bunch of shit against a wall and hope something sticks.

[radius777]

53. simply responding to 58Sunliner's charge about men as a whole:

"Because people who voted for DT were overwhelmingly men across the racial spectrum."

This is entirely false, as most men of color voted for Hillary/Dems, whereas slightly more than half of white women voted for Trump/GOP, as they have since 1996.

My point is that if we're looking for demographics that didn't step up, it has more to do with white women, and also the youth/millenial vote that didn't turn out as high as it did for Obama.

In no way am I denying sexism/misogyny (from both the left and right, from both men and women, and from the media) was a significant factor; in fact I made several posts about it during and after the election.

[58Sunliner]

56. My post makes a lot of sense. And so does yours. My point is a major factor was not accounted for.

It's invisible-just like the noxious sexism. I agree I do not trust the vote totals. I also do not discount racism.

[moondust]

25. Of course it did.

The Republican Party is a fisherman that uses two kinds of bait: greed and bigotry (including both racism and sexism). That's all they need to reel in a boatload of suckers day after day, year after year. Using their special worm dip of fake religiosity, they may end up with as much as all three branches of the federal gov't, 32 state legislatures, and 33 governors. Mmmmm...

[Eliot Rosewater]

26. I said this before and after the election, that it had zilch to do with jobs

or economy.

We know this, we also know the GOP now works with Russia to pretend it was about something else.

[mcar]

30. And yet that idea is still pushed

by the media, the right and some on the left.

[radius777]

46. well it did have something to do with it,

as well as healthcare costs, etc.

but i think the reason whites on the right and left have turned populist/nationalist has mainly to do with the fact that globalism (trade, immigration) is now viewed as a racially depurifying force; i.e. trade is mostly to non-white countries, immigration is mostly non-white.

notice that these "populists" have no problem with french wine, german cars, italian leather etc - and there have been many jobs moved to places like ireland.

the alt-right/white nationalists are honest if nothing else. they openly admit that no PoC can truly be American, and that white countries should only trade with each other, etc.

of course, America was a land stolen by whites, who are the true illegal aliens in every part of the world they overtook, aside from Europe, their native homeland. that part of the narrative they conveniently overlook.

[MineralMan]

33. Racism and misogyny.

Both were in place, with racism probably taking the top spot.

[mcar]

35. They were the deciding factors

among the "deplorable" voters.

[ismnotwasm]

34. K&R

[spanone]

40. racism also motivated congress for the last seven years

[Cha]

43. Well there ya go.. definitely Bookmarking it!

"Can we please stop the "we have to reach out to poor Trump voters" lament?"

Yeah, 'cause that's just bullshit.

Mahalo, mcar!

[mcar]

48. Thanks Cha!

[Cha]

50. Yeah, I just went to my Bookmarks today already

to link your OP, mcar!

Thank you!

[Madam45for2923]

49. Yes! The elephant in the living room is really there!

[ismnotwasm]

52. Yup

No matter how people try to frame it.

[mythology]

54. The economic axis shouldn't have been on income inequality, it should have been on economic anxiety

Trump won counties that had slower economic growth and where the most jobs are threatened by automation and substantially outperformed Mitt Romney in those counties.

It's simplistic to chalk it all up to racism and so say it's okay to just write them off. But you can't actually so neatly divide motivations like that. Did every German starting in the 1930s hate Jewish people? Or was it that somebody gave them a simple scapegoat for economic issues? Or was it more complex in that there is a tendency among people to want to blame some outside group?

Humanity has a long and ugly history with the concept of the "other" Support for the Swedish welfare state dropped in distinct correlation with an increase in immigration. The Irish Catholics fought against the British and Northern Irish Protestants. In the U.S., while welfare is less generous in more heterogeneous states, but studies have shown that immigration has a higher impact than racism. Why? My guess would be that blacks from the U.S. are seen as less other than immigrants who are newer to the country.

The U.S. in particular has a history that so intertwines race and economics and religion and politics that I don't think it's really possible to separate any of them.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stop-saying-trumps-win-had-nothing-to-do-with-economics/

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12233/full

[Initech]

55. I don't claim to know a lot, but I know right, and I know wrong.

Trump is wrong. McConnell is wrong. Ryan is wrong. Gorsuch is wrong. Steve Bannon is wrong. Putin is wrong. Infowars is wrong. White nationalism is wrong. Fox News is wrong. Everything that's happened since the election is wrong. This is not normal. I am legitimately scared for the future.

[Gothmog]

57. Deplorables are very stupid people which is why they vote for trump