What are the odds that the Repubs will win the Senate?

[kentuck]

And if they do, how important is it that we have a Democratic President?

The Democrats have an uphill run. They have 23 open seats and the Repubs only have 10 so there is a very good chance the Repubs will win back the Senate. Very few expect the Democrats to take back the House. It doesn't take much imagination to envision the legislative agenda of the right-wing for the next two to four years. How important is it to have a Democratic President to keep them in check? Very.

[WCGreen]

1. Especially with the make up of the Supreme Court...

[kentuck]

2. Scary times.

Hanging in there, WC?

[lovemydog]

3. If a lot of democrats don't vote, the odds are good

Get out the vote!

[kentuck]

4. Why would Democrats not vote?

I think that is a question we should explore.

[jerseyjack]

6. Even if all Dems voted, there's still DeBold.

[NoMoreWarNow]

7. because Obama has been tended to be more pro-corporation than pro-people?

because he's disappointed many liberals in many ways by not going after Wall St or the Bush administration? Because of his sickening drone war? Because he has continued the wasteful Afghanistan war? Because of his unprecedented prosecution of whistleblowers? Because the economy is still in the doldrums? Because Obama has not done a good job of promoting his policies?

Fair or not, there are many potential reasons why Dems would not be excited about Obama. I could go on and on. I think a Romney presidency would be a disaster, but neither am I thrilled about what Obama has done.

[democrat_patriot]

12. You may be confusiing DU Dems with mainstream Dems

I think Democrats in general are going to vote for Obama - 88% approval rating.

I have NEVER heard a professed democrat outside of DU even hint at not voting for Obama.

[byeya]

14. I am not saying "do not vote for Obama" but many of my friends

are not going to vote for anyone for president because Obama was failed to try to live up to his
progressive campaign rhetoric.
Quite a number of acquaintences and friends point to the make up of the Cabinent who are overwhelmingly
pro-corporate.
There are decades-long Democrats who won't be pulling the Obama lever or anyone else's.

[emulatorloo]

17. What do they hope to accomplish by allowing Republicans to win?

Serious question.

[MineralMan]

35. Your friends, then, are morons.

If they can't see the problem, they're not capable of seeing much of anything.

[a kennedy]

20. We could probably start with the dems in Wisconsin.....

lots didn't show up to vote and the state got the weasel walker.

[EC]

26. That's not why we ended up with weasel again.

Many stupid Dems thought that the recall was not proper so voted for him. I call them stupid because they were.

[a kennedy]

36. No, no, no, not the recall vote.....the initial vote to put him in power in the first place.

Name Party Votes Vote %

Walker , Scott GOP 1,128,159 52%

Barrett , Tom Dem 1,005,008 47%

Langer , Jim Ind 10,531 0%

James , James Ind 8,287 0%

No Candidate/Virgil Lib 6,738 0%

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/105000829.html

[flamingdem]

16. Also, contribute to the tight race of your choice

Remember that dark money will be FLOODING those races

[customerserviceguy]

5. The math doesn't favor us

If you look state-by-state, holding the Senate (and I even count a 50-50 as a 'hold', if Joe Biden is re-elected) is a long shot. Now, we'll still be able to fillibuster, but if reconciliation is used by Romney and the Rethuglicans to gut the ACA, I don't see how we stop them.

[vi5]

10. Can the president veto?

Does that apply to things passed through reconcilliation? I know he had to sign the ACA, but I wasn't sure if that was just ceremonial or not.

[PoliticAverse]

11. Yes of course he can. That's why Republican efforts to repeal the ACA require Romney to win. n/t

[ProgressiveEconomist]

21. Correct. For example, Bill Clinton vetoed 2 bills passed via reconciliation:

the Taxpayer Refund and Relief Act 1999 and the Marriage Tax Relief Reconciliation Act 2000.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconciliation_(United_States_Congress)

[MannyGoldstein]

8. If Democrats had delivered for their base

and fought like sonsabitches to end this depression, we'd be moaning about only being able to pick up 10 seats instead of fretting over how many of the 23 we'll lose.

[emulatorloo]

18. Happily many voters don't give Republicans the free pass that you do.

[MannyGoldstein]

25. Should Lincoln have fired his losing generals?

After all, it was the Confederacy that made them fail, no?

I'm a Democrat. I hire (vote for) Democrats to fight for me. They tell me what they will do, i campaign, contribute, and vote for them, and I expect 'em to do it. When they fail, and particularly when they don't even try real hard (as far as I can tell), they need to be held responsible. Just like Lincoln's generals.

[emulatorloo]

27. Again, many voters realize that the Republicans have sabotaged

almost everything Dems have tried to do since 2008. Anything that has gotten done (and good things were done) was done in spite of Republicans.

You on the other hand are unwilling or unable to grasp this.

Republicans are not part of your worldview. You never talk about them.

As far as I can tell they do not exist for you.

[MannyGoldstein]

30. Just as I hire police to catch criminals,

I vote for Democrats to go after Republicans.

Am I correct in understanding that you feel that Lincoln was unfair to Generals McDowell, McClellan, Burnside, et al? He should have railed against the Confederacy instead of finding generals that would fight and win?

[emulatorloo]

32. Ha Ha, putting words into my mouth to change the subject.

[MannyGoldstein]

37. What would you like me to respond to

That I did not respond to?

[emulatorloo]

38. What your endgame is.

Once you've convinced people to vote third party or stay home, what's next?

What are you hoping you will accomplish if Romney manages to win and the Republicans take over congress?

[MannyGoldstein]

39. My endgame is FDR Democrats wresting control of our party

back from the Third-Wayers that have ruled for 20+ years
The US can only slide further into ruin unless we elect leaders who fight like mad dogs for traditional Democratic principles. More Liz Warren, less Robert Rubin. More FDR, less Hoover.

If Obama loses, it's his fault for not delivering for the American people. We are still in a depression, and he's fighting for more "free" trade and austerity. I didn't suggest that he do that.

Let me ask: do you think things have gone well over the last 20 years?

[COLGATE4]

28. Right on, Manny! K&R

[Douglas Carpenter]

9. 54,4% according to Intrade

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[INdemo]

13. don't underestimate Democrats winning back the House

Congress has an over all approval rating of about 11%..(depending which survey you read) but I think the TeaParty candidates has
shown us just how radical they are..This election may wake up a lot of Democratic voters that previously vowed to stay home
..As for the Senate I think McConnell is the best politcal ad we could ever have..Every time this guy opens his mouth he contradicts himself.....
Minority Leader: Odds Long to Undo Health Care Law

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

24. The average voter does not care about Mitch McConnell or know who he is

Unlike how Harry Reid has been vilified by the GOP, we refuse to make our enemies household words.

[Bake]

29. I think Mitch has shown his ass PLENTY in the past year.

From his "number one priority is to make sure Obama is a one-term President" to more recent support of undisclosed money to super PACs, he's shown himself to be an extremist of the first order. He'll never lose his seat in KY (sadly) until he retires or dies (oh happy thought), but he's one of the "faces" of the modern GOP.

Bake

[demwing]

15. RCP shows Dems have a safe 47 seats

to the Republican's safe 45

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html

In the tossup sates Nelson (FL), and Kaine (VA) have leads, and Warren (MA) is in a deadlock - but does anyone expect Scott Brown to win? With HCR in the bag, I'm betting MA Dems will turn out to take Kennedy's seat back. Intrade also gives Warren an edge over Brown, if only slightly.

That gives us 50. With Biden, 51.

Wisconsin is interesting. Obama is very popular there, but Thompson (R) is the favored Senate candidate. The big question is what affect will we see if Scott Walker gets indicted? The Dem in WI - Baldwin - does well against all other Republican primary candidates. If Walker goes down, Wisconsin could feel some buyers remorse over their recall vote, and toss out the Republicans.

The "also rans" are Heitkamp in ND (which is an open seat and a tossup), and then Berkeley in NV, Tester in MT and McCaskill in MO who are all trailing in their races. Of those last three, Berkeley is gaining on the Repub, and might have a shot if Nevada turnout favors Dems.

A real wild card race is over the open seat in Indiana. Indiana was Dick Lugar's old seat, but he was beaten in the (R) primary by a Tea Party clown named Mourdock. Polls show Lugar would have won the GE easily, but Mourdock can't get an edge against Donnelly (D), and may not be able to pull enough Independent voters to seal the deal. Rasmussen has the race tied at 42%, and an earlier Honey/DePauw poll in March showed the race tied at 35%.

I'd say that despite the odds given at Intrade, Dems have a better than 50% chance of holding the Senate. I predict we lose three existing seats and flip two red seats (three, if you count MA), walking away with a narrow majority, (52/48).

[permatex]

19. I hope slim to none

and I hope that slim is leaving the train station as we speak.

[cojoel]

22. This is my personal analysis

All of this assumes reasonably fair elections (which is a pretty rash assumption in this day and age). The Democrats need to win 20 seats to stay at 50. More is better.

Very Likely Stay Dem (13): CA DE HI MD MI MN NJ NY OH PA RI WA WV

Very Likely to Stay Ind (1): VT (Bernie causes with Dems)

Very Likely to Flip Dem (0):

Very Likely to Flip Rep to Ind (1): ME (I am assuming Angus King will caucus with Democratic members if he is elected)

Very Likely to Flip Ind to Dem (1): CT (Lieberman caucused with Dems)

Very Likely Stay Rep (6): AZ MS TN TX UT WY

Very Likely to Flip Rep (1): NE

Probably Stay Dem (2): NM WI* (much to worry about here)

Possible to Flip Dem (3): IN MA NV

Probably Stay Rep (0):

Possible to Flip Rep (5): MO ND MT VA FL

This leads to Probably or higher: Dems 18 - Reps 7 - Contested 8

Of the contested, I think we have a reasonable chance at MA, NV, and FL (FL is at 19% undecided which is large). We have a modest chance at NV and VA. I think IN, MO, ND, and MT are long-shots but not out of the question as polling is close. We also need to work very hard in the other elections anyway, and especially in NM and WI.

[cthulu2016]

23. 60%

[Woody Woodpecker]

31. Actually, there will be a massive defeat of the 10 seat that the Repubs hope to hold on to.

While the voters depart the Republicans en-masse to the Democratic side, and boosts the majority from 52 to 70, with 30 deciding to retire in '14 and '16 respectively, shifting to the leftward.

Progressives will take over the US House and remove every single Teapublicans out of the House, and then truly fix what ails America and remove unnecessary and wasteful spending FROM the right. All pork will cease, in replacement will be a federally funded mandate to create jobs for every single American, and easily earn a living wage.

[stevenleser]

33. Electoral-vote.com says if the election was held today, we win 51 seats. See...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Senate/Maps/Jul03-s.html

[MineralMan]

34. We can improve the odds, if we put our minds to it, and our

efforts. Or, we can just bail and let the country go to Hell. I'm not really willing to do that.

If we work our butts off and get defeated, that's one thing. If we let it happen, then it's on us, really.

[yellowcanine]

40. Uh - An "open seat" is when there is no incumbent. It is not 23 open D seats vs 10 open R seats.

This makes a difference because incumbents usually win. So what we need to know is actual open seats, where they are (Red or Blue State) and which incumbents are vulnerable.