Even with the math favoring the moderate, IMO, it will be Le Pen.

[CK_John]

The world knows that the economic systems are under going a new way and they hate change.

They may not know what is causing it but they know it will not help them.

So they are going to upset the current systems and hope to slow it down by raising hell.

[Amishman]

1. I disagree, I think Le Pen has a low ceiling and won't be able to top 50% in a runoff.

There will be no casual indifference by moderates either, this won't be Brexit or Trump where casual voters stayed on the sidelines because of certainty of the outcome.

Macron will win.

[CK_John]

3. Well at least they have a reasonable 2 week runoff and not like Ossout.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Here is the opinion polling

Here is the opinion polling:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017


Oh, but Trump:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016


I see something.

[hlthe2b]

4. Gawd, SUZY SUNSHINE...

I surely didn't need to read THAT opinion, first thing..... I believe you are wrong, but it is disheartening to see, nonetheless.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. You can't compare French elections with American elections.

Different culture, different demographics, and most importantly a different electoral process. Trump started with a base of approximately 40% as that is the amount of voters who would vote for Satan if he had a (R) after his name. LePen has no such base.

[hlthe2b]

7. You know what I think will clinch a Le Pen defeat?

The French have a bit of superiority towards US, thus the disdain with which they rightfully regard the US in terms of electing Trump* will have a major impact in the end. And, yes, I DO believe they are too smart to repeat our mistakes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. "You know what I think will clinch a Le Pen defeat?"

Barack Obama is hugely popular in France and he tacitly supports Macron.

[CK_John]

8. IMO, if the reason is the same, automation and change, will bring out the upsetters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Why didn't the upsetters vote for her in the first round?

[CK_John]

10. Because they knew they would have another chance, maybe, who knows.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. The upsetters took a big chance. Fillon almost came in second.

[CK_John]

14. The past is very accurate.

[CK_John]

6. Don't blame me, it's automation that is upsetting the world economies.

[OnDoutside]

13. The State bookies in France are giving Macron a 98% of winning.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. See Post #2

[OnDoutside]

19. 61-38 is a bit of a difference to Margin of Error polling between Hillary and Trump !

[NCTraveler]

15. Macron takes it.

When people claim automation is going to swing an election is simply go with the opposite. It's a good standard. People were saying our election was going to be thrown with an automation October surprise. They still have egg dripping down their face and are so oblivious to reality they think it looks beautiful on them.

[ucrdem]

17. She doesn't need to win to win.

The payoff for LePen is the June parliamentary elections where she's counting on cleaning up. Hard to predict but they won some seats last time (2 I think) and will probably get a few more this time.



p.s. that's two more seats than Macron who at the moment has none.

[kcr]

18. Remember, though. Unlike the US, France actually has reliable polls.

I know it's hard for us not to freak out because we still have election PTSD, but Le Pen is almost certain to lose.

[Initech]

20. And the disgusting thing is white nationalism and isolationism is becoming mainstream.

[Txbluedog]

21. No it won't--- Demographics is 1 reason

France has a sizable Muslim population that will never vote LePen.

This is a run-off and everyone that has something against LePrn will vote Marcon. Think of it this way, if the US Presidential election had a run off between Trump and Clinton, every non-deplorable would have come out to vote for Clinton.