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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDonald Trumps Base Is Shrinking
A widely held tenet of the current conventional wisdom is that while President Trump might not be popular overall, he has a high floor on his support. Trumps sizable and enthusiastic base perhaps 35 to 40 percent of the country wont abandon him any time soon, the theory goes, and they dont necessarily care about some of the controversies that the mainstream media treats as game-changing developments.
Its an entirely reasonable theory. We live in a highly partisan epoch, and voters are usually loyal to politicians from their party. Trump endured a lot of turbulence in the general election but stuck it out to win the Electoral College. The media doesnt always guess right about which stories will resonate with voters.
But the theory isnt supported by the evidence. To the contrary, Trumps base seems to be eroding. Theres been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trumps strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support. And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an enthusiasm gap that works against Trump at the midterms. The data suggests, in particular, that the GOPs initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters.
These estimates come from the collection of polls we use for FiveThirtyEights approval ratings tracker. Many approval-rating polls give respondents four options: strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove and strongly disapprove. Ordinarily, we only estimate Trumps overall approval and disapproval. But we went back and collected this more detailed data for all polls for which it was available, and then we reran our approval ratings program to output numbers for all four approval categories instead of the usual two.1 Here are Trumps strongly approve and somewhat approve ratings from shortly after the start of his term2 through this Tuesday:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/
kimbutgar
(21,163 posts)I want to see only1% support from those who will benefit from His tax cuts.
Sadly too many brainwashed supporters of the cult of 45mwho are clueless they have been duped and conned. I estimate about 28% will go down with the ship with him.
SeattleVet
(5,477 posts)looks sort of like his 'base' is expanding:
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)That 'Depends'.