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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNate Silver on Trump's Support: Donald Trump's Base Is Shrinking
.................Trumps base seems to be eroding. Theres been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trumps strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support. And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an enthusiasm gap that works against Trump at the midterms. The data suggests, in particular, that the GOPs initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters.
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After a slight uptick in the first two to three weeks of his term, Trumps strong approval ratings have headed downward. But it hasnt been a steady decline. Instead, they fell considerably from about 29 percent on March 6 when Republicans introduced their health care bill to around 24 percent on April 1, shortly after the GOP pulled the bill from the House floor. They then remained stable for much of April, before beginning to fall again this month after the reintroduction (and House passage) of the health care bill and after Trump fired FBI director James Comey on May 9. As of Tuesday, just 21.4 percent of Americans strongly approved of Trumps performance.
By comparison, 45 percent of Americans strongly approved of President Obamas performance as of April 2009, although Obamas strong approval numbers would fall considerably over the course of his term to the mid-to-high 20s by the midterms and to the high teens by 2014.
The share of Americans who somewhat approve of Trumps performance has actually increased slightly, however, from about 16 percent in early February to 17.9 percent as of Tuesday. In part, this probably reflects voters who once strongly approved of Trump and who have now downgraded him to the somewhat approve category. (Trumps strongly approve and somewhat approve numbers have been inversely correlated so far, meaning that as one has risen, the other has tended to fall.) A potential problem for Trump is that in the event of continued White House turmoil, the next step for these somewhat approve voters would be to move toward disapproval of the president.
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The number of Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump has sharply risen since early in his term, meanwhile, from the mid-30s in early February to 44.1 percent as of Tuesday. In most surveys, Trumps strongly disapprove rating exceeds his overall approval rating, in fact.
MORE:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/?ex_cid=story-twitter
mucifer
(23,549 posts)FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)His miss on the presidential election was so big, I doubt I will really ever pay attention to him again
dawg
(10,624 posts)People on this site and others were openly criticizing him for giving Trump such a high possibility of winning.
Statistical
(19,264 posts)He projected a close election with Trump having a ~30% chance to win.
BumRushDaShow
(129,087 posts)that we "give him more time".
J_William_Ryan
(1,753 posts)How anyone could support the likes of Trump remains a mystery.
ronnie624
(5,764 posts)Beware.
bagelsforbreakfast
(1,427 posts)"The data suggests, in particular, that the GOPs initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters."