Can Obama Defy History?

[kpete]

Can Obama Defy History?

Associated Press:

"History repeats itself, until it doesn't. That musty saw is worth remembering as pundits speculate on whether the lumbering economy will doom the re-election hopes of President Barack Obama, who has shown a knack for beating odds and breaking barriers..."

"There's a problem with applying historical precedents and conventional wisdom to Obama. He sometimes defies them."

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/analysis-republicans-hope-jobs-rate-drops-obama#overlay-context=article/britain-hails-andy-murray-hero-now
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/07/07/can_obama_defy_history.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29

[russspeakeasy]

1. He has done it before.

[NYC_SKP]

3. Plus One.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. Several times in fact:

1. Won Democratic Primary for POTUS against a much more seasoned and well-known politician/figure and heavy duty political machine after serving in US Senate for only 4 years and was virtual unknown before then
2. Was elected POTUS against a much more seasoned and well-known politician and heavy duty political and propaganda machine (i.e. Fox News)
3. Helped enact and signed health care reform for the first time in US history
4. Killed OBL despite his predecessor having nearly 8 years to do so (and little likelihood that it might ever happen in the first place)

[Bluerthanblue]

2. history is the record of the past- not a mandate for the future-

progress is made by learning from the past, not by allowing it to confine or defeat us with self-defeating prophesy.

[SoutherDem]

5. He has before he can again.

He is a record breaking President and will continue to be.

[Ship of Fools]

6. it seems M$M wants us NOT to think so.

honks me off. wait til they figure out that NO ONE will be watching
ads for the next 4 months, thanks to a little thing called a *remote.*

[Springslips]

14. Or DVR or Netflix

If it is not news, a political event or a sporting team I follow, I do not watch TV stained with commercial breaks; that model of revenue is on its way out.

[Ship of Fools]

16. Same here! I was thinking about Olympics and conventions coming up...

[bemildred]

7. We live in a time of relentless, rapid change.

Those are the facts. History predicts nothing, it simply offers a few clues about how things can go.

[unblock]

8. it's a dim and narrow read of history to think that odds are against obama.

we have a lackluster economy and by now merely moderately high unemployment.

that's it. it's not a recession, it's an expansion.

dwell on just the unemployment number and ignore everything else and sure, history says odds are against obama (although he would hardly be the first, fdr did quite well with far worse unemployment).

how about "presidents who run for re-election quite often win. can rmoney defy history?"

or "presidents who stay scandal-free quite often win. can rmoney defy history?"

there are many factors at play, and most of them are in obama's favor.

[pnwmom]

9. History told us that no black man had ever succeeded in winning the Presidency.

Sometimes history is a poor predictor of the future.

[BumRushDaShow]

13. +infinity

He defied the biggest hurdle of all - a black man elected to the highest office in the land?

To me, the record books should be tossed.

And as an analogy - there is a major heatwave that has gone on across over 1/2 of the nation that was "record breaking" meaning that the latest temperatures have "defied (predictive) history".

[Mutiny In Heaven]

10. There's more precedent to suggest that he WILL be re-elected

Yet few sources focus on that...

People like to imagine that Romney has Clinton-esque appeal, but the simple fact of the matter is that no sitting President in the media age has ever been ousted by someone who lags so dramatically in terms of likeability and charisma. It may seem frivolous, but it's a huge indicator because it predicts just where the public are likely to lay their trust, however tenuous their belief that the President is on the right track. It's important that the Obama campaign continues to define Romney; don't let him be seen as a benevolent benefactor.

It is only due to the hundreds of millions Citizens United has allowed dubious characters to saturate the election with that he has been handed something approaching a 50% chance of victory.

[rufus dog]

11. Yes he can

Bush 41 was sitting 14 points lower in approval at the same time in 1992.

There are enough educated voters that know he inherited a mess and has been met with unprecedented obstruction from Republicans.

And Mitt is an unlikeable Douche bag.

[Posteritatis]

12. Seeing as history rather lacks the force of physical laws, I don't see why not. (nt)

[BumRushDaShow]

15. FDR was re-elected twice with unemployment rates of 16.6% ('36) & 14.6% ('40)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/on-the-maddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/

It's perhaps not ironic that the media have harped on this meme because in their wingnut world, life only begins at Raygun.

[ProfessionalLeftist]

17. BCU

Before Citizens United

[magnifisense]

18. He had better!

A Romney presidency would likely mean an end to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the abolition of many if not all our civil liberties (with his Supreme Court choices).

[hughee99]

19. If the economy is a major theme (and it usually is when it's bad),

I think Obama can win with 2 approaches. We'll either see the "Blame Bush" approach or the "Lipstick on a pig" approach, neither is a great campaign strategy, but Romney is a weak enough candidate that either could work.

[arely staircase]

20. can the black guy who got elected president of the united states defy history? nt

[HopeHoops]

21. He already has. He became the president.