I'll tell you what's gonna happen with healthcare and the GOP

[LynneSin]

While GOP Governors are all too gleefully trying to wield their powers by saying they won't implement parts of the healthcare plan there will still be many states that will. I know they are here in Delaware and I've sent details to friends who I know will want to take advantage of it.

What will happen is this - in 4-6 years people who live in the states that will implement the new healthcare plans will be seeing big changes in their life. They will have affordable coverage, they will be able to visit doctors without risking crazy-high costs and they will be happier. And if you're like me you probably have relatives living in those states without healthcare. And those that benefit - word of mouth will get out that the plan is working and they are getting healthy at an affordable rate while those stuck in red states are still trying to make DU with the 'pray you don't get sick' healthcare plan.

That's when the voters will start revolting against the GOP. Rick Perry sure won't implement the healthcare plan but it will be a big issue with Texas voters for the next governor. Eventually you'll see those 'red states' implementing it. I just hope their citizens on the 'pray you don't get sick' healthcare plan survive until then.

[lastlib]

1. I hope it doesn't come to that.

I hope those states see the light in the next couple of years, and go ahead and implement it--before good people have to pay a price that's not acceptable to the rest of the world.

[obxhead]

2. It's up to the states to choose whether or not to implement their own version of some parts ACA.

Most of those parts WILL be implemented one way or another though. The exchange for instance will be in every state regardless of what these governors say. If they refuse, the federal gov will just run it for them at the states cost after the fed money runs out for the initial time frame. Their will be an exchange in every state though.

The medicare/caid part they actually can opt out of. They are shooting themselves in the foot though as doing the boosts to those programs will bring in more money than they cost. So I think in the end they will do it as well to get the money added to their flagging systems.

It's election season. Politicians SAY a lot of things they have no intention of following through on.

[GoCubsGo]

3. I don't think it will take 4-6 years.

People are already finding out what they'll lose out on, and I think the revolt will happen within the next year or two.

[zipplewrath]

4. Several paths

You're right that some govenors will just leave and their successors will impliment it. Others will announce that their hands are forced by the legislatures. Some states might see lawsuits to force the govenors, and they'll even use the threat of a lawsuit to say they were forced. In the end they'll all take the money.

[RC]

5. We should have had Single Payer back in 1953. It wasn't even a new idea then.

Presidential Efforts

Efforts to enact a single payer system in the United States date back to Franklin
Roosevelt. When devising Social Security he originally proposed a comprehensive
system of nationalized health care along the single payer model. Truman also made
attempts to bring single payer legislation through Congress but was defeated in 1953.
Lyndon Johnson had a plan to insure all Americans via a single payer system. He
originally proposed Medicare and Medicaid to cover everyone, but had to scale back his
proposal because of political opposition. Richard Nixon did not propose a single payer
system, but did propose mandates that required all employers to provide coverage. Most
recently, the Health Security Act of 1992 followed Bill Clinton’s campaign rhetoric of
“managed competition.” Though he rejected the idea that this proposal was a single
payer model, most who actually read the legislation referred to it as “single payer in
drag!” Barack Obama has said, “I happen to be a proponent of a single-payer, universal
health care plan...that’s what I’d like to see. But, as all of you know, we may not get
there immediately. Because first we have to take back the White House and we’ve got to
take back the Senate and we’ve got to take back the Congress.”* By the time you read
this, he may have done just that!

http://www.easybenefitstatements.com/documents/A-History-of-Single-Payer-Health-Care-Efforts-US.pdf

[denverbill]

6. No, here is what is going to happen...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/medicaid-insurers-surge-on-amerigroup-deal-2012-07-09?dist=afterbell

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Medicaid insurers surged in early trading Monday, anticipating a reshuffling among health carriers after WellPoint Inc. announced plans to buy Amerigroup Corp. for a 43% premium.

Shares of Amerigroup AGP +38.00% , a player in Medicaid coverage, were catapulted by 38% after WellPoint WLP +3.41% , one of the nation’s biggest insurers, agreed to pay $92 a share for the company, or $4.9 billion. Amerigroup shares were up $24.50 to $88.84 while WellPoint shares were up more than 3% to $61.95.
........

Wellpoint will buy off the Republickers, or just enough to keep the Medicaid expansion in place. As a result, they won't repeal the whole thing. They will nitpick at the edges for years.

[FarCenter]

7. People will move from states where they can't get healthcare to states where they can

Increasing healthcare costs in the states with more available healthcare.

[jeff47]

8. Larger risk pool reduces cost.

More people moving to states that implemented the ACA actually drives down the per-person cost.

The headline number will be higher, but there will be a lot more people paying.

[FarCenter]

10. It doesn't because they are likely to be sicker and less able to pay a share, increasing state costs

[jeff47]

13. Only if all of the people moving are sick.

They are likely to have things like "families". Who are unlikely to all be sick too.

[Fawke Em]

11. That's what happened in Tennessee.

We had/have TennCare (it's no longer in its original form) that allowed people to buy state-funded insurance on a sliding-scale fee; however, because we were the ONLY state in the South, we had a huge influx of people who moved here - poorer, working class people who had illnesses - and it drove UP costs.

Our stupid GOP leadership forget this part: the cost were driven up because TennCare was the ONLY game in town for all of the South and there was no pool that included healthy people.

I suspect your correct and the opposite will be true when states implement/don't implement these exchanges.

[FarCenter]

12. Each state has to gear its plans to make poor sick people move away and healthy rich people move in.

[jeff47]

9. Just need some activists to start piling body bags outside the gov's mansion. (nt)

[alcibiades_mystery]

14. GOP govs are all bluster...they'll start implementing under the ACA

or letting the feds implement (as the exchanges) until they can take them over quietly and without the big to-do.

They'll make a big show of turning down medicaid expansion, but will eventually negotiate a deal to accept the funds under the act.

They're all bark. Every single one of the hold-outs will have the ACA implemented in their state by 2016.