2018 MI US Senate Race Prediction-Debbie Stabenow's (D-MI)2018 margin of victory will be

[nkpolitics1212]

1)higher than 2012 margin of victory?(over 21 percent)
2)higher than 2006 margin of victory but lower than 2012 margin of victory?(over 16 percent but under 21 percent)
3)higher than 2000 margin of victory but lower than 2006 margin of victory?(over 2 percent but under 16 percent)

[Awsi Dooger]

1. On all of these I would take under the 2006 or 2012 margins

Appreciate the threads since they are convenient reference points toward the prior results.

2006 and 2012 were favorable cycles. While next year holds the same promise, since whites have shifted away from us and we have to defend the vast majority of senate seats up for grab, I would expect tighter races across the board. The opposition won't shy away from any tactic and Koch brothers money will back all of those tactics.

Trump will probably be involved more than any president in modern history. He's not going to shy away, no matter his approval numbers or the location. After winning as such an underdog he'll be convinced nothing is out of his reach.

[nkpolitics1212]

3. Looking at the Trump State Democratic US Senators up for re-election in 2018

Stabenow-MI,Casey-PA, and Manchin-WV win by a 10 to 15 percent margin.
Nelson-FL,McCaskill-MO,Brown-OH and Baldwin-WI will win by a 5 to 10 percent margin.
Donnelly-IN,Tester-MT,and Heitkamp-ND will win by a less than 5 percent margin.

[lastlib]

4. I'm not sure McCaskill will win by that much.

With all the money that'll be spent against her, I'm expecting a nail-biter. Razor-thin. MO was a pretty red tRumpf state, but Kander and Koster did fairly well.

[nkpolitics1212]

5. Republican spent a lot of money against McCaskill in 2012 and she won by a 16 percent margin.

I know that it was because of Akin's legitimate r-word gaffe.
I know that Trump's 2016 margin of victory in MO was much larger than Romney's 2012 margin of victory in MO.
Do you think that McCaskill's 2018 Republican opponent will be any better than McCaskill's 2012 Republican Challenger?

[BannonsLiver]

6. Google Todd Akin

[nkpolitics1212]

7. I know about Todd Akin.

[BannonsLiver]

8. Well that's why she won. But you knew that already, then.

[nkpolitics1212]

9. I know that Todd Akin was the reason why McCaskill won. But it was by a 16 percent margin.

I don't think McCaskill's margin of victory in 2018 is going to be in the double digits.
McCaskill ending up like Carnahan in 2002 is McCaskill's floor.

[lastlib]

11. The R's certainly couldn't do any worse than 2012.

And yes, I think they WILL do better. They WILL have a better candidate than Akin; I don't expect them to pick another knuckle-dragging troglodyte. Not sure who it will be, but if there is a detectable pulse, it will be better than Akin.

[nkpolitics1212]

12. How much better will it be?

[lastlib]

13. the Rs have several choices to run against her.

I think she would leave tire treadmarks on Vicky Hartzler's carcass, but Ann Wagner, Sarah Steelman, or Luetkemeyer could be more formidable. Jay Ashcroft has the family name and would have a lot of friends, but may still be a bit inexperienced; nevertheless, he would be a difficult opponent, I think. I think it'll be a tough battle when you add in the Koch money.

[pstokely]

14. don't rule out Grieitens

nt

[nkpolitics1212]

15. The 2018 MO US Senate Race is a Tossup

McCaskill could win or lose by a margin no more than 5 percent.

[rurallib]

2. Will they count ballots in Detroit? How's the voter suppression?

I wouldn't count any chickens hatching considering the environment.

[LovingA2andMI]

10. There will be a New Clerk in the City of Detroit by then so....

All The Votes will be counted on the New Opt-Scanned Voter Machines with Ballot Backup to check each and every vote. Not a fan of our Governor Rick Snyder or our Secretary of State (R) Ruth Johnson BUT....both refused to have the electronic voting machines that nearly no one wanted in this State.