Hopes of Trump Bump for U.S. Economy Shrink as Growth Forecasts Fade

[workinclasszero]

Hopes of ‘Trump Bump’ for U.S. Economy Shrink as Growth Forecasts Fade
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ JULY 6, 2017

The promise of faster economic growth has become a study in the triumph of hope over experience.

While the June jobs report, coming on Friday, is expected to show that hiring continued at a healthy pace last month, other recent indicators in areas like consumer spending, construction and auto sales have been decidedly less robust.

As a result, Wall Street forecasters have been busy lowering their growth estimates for the second quarter, which ended last Friday, much as they were forced to do over the first three months of the year.

Mr. Trump himself declared upon taking office that his policies would produce 4 percent annual growth, and just this week said on Twitter to affirm that “things are starting to kick in now.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/06/business/economy/united-states-economy-gdp-trump.html?&hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

[DK504]

1. Who actually thought there would be a bump in numbers?

I think all of us knew there would be no bump and the numbers would fall, immediately. And they did.

[workinclasszero]

3. All the idiot middle class and workers that voted Dump is all

You would think they would have remembered what Bush did to the Bill Clinton economy but nooooooo!

Now we get to see Trump destroy everything while attacking workers, the old and sick.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Record bull market

I make no claims about knowing what will happen to the economy next. But I do know this is the longest bull market and longest stretch of job growth in our nation's history. This cannot continue forever.

[ProfessorGAC]

4. It Could Have

But, Wall Street and consumers hate uncertainty. So, buying stalls, growth slows, analysts get nervous and the markets contract.

And this crowd is creating nothing but uncertainty.

[workinclasszero]

5. Sure wall street got even more rich

while real wages are about even with the 1970's rate.

The fuckin trickle down/voodoo republican economics ain't working for the vast majority of Americans.

[Johnny2X2X]

8. Never let politics cloud your investments

The idiots who pulled out of the market when Obama took office missed out on massive returns for their retirement accounts. Likewise, Trump is not going to dictate my investment choices.

2 out of every 3 Americans who have access to a 401K choose not to invest. That is absolute insanity. The only way to join the American dream is to invest. Now I realize many are living pay check to paycheck(so have I), but it really doesn't take any discipline and very little savings to get your piece.

To a 20 year old $5 a day = $1 Million at retirement. For the love of sanity, find $5 a day, and if you can't, find $3 a day, or $1 a day. A dollar a day can turn into a quarter million at retirement which is a massive difference in quality of life for retired folks.

[haele]

10. A lot of those people pulled out of the market because they needed the money to survive a job loss.

This country started hemorrhaging jobs that paid between $50K and $100K in 2008 - those 45 year old + "mid level" manager and senior hourly or commission employee jobs who had the majority of their retirement in 401Ks, IRAs or similar types of funds - smaller funds that they'd been contributing to since the mid 1990's.
These employees had to pull money out of the market because there were mortgage payments, or student loans, and few to no jobs that they could bounce back to without moving a great distance - if they were accepted for a new position. I personally knew more than a few engineers and senior managers who had to pull retirement investments out early to cover what unemployment didn't cover as they were looking for a replacement job at a quarter to half an equivalent salary as the one they had lost.

The $200K + annual household income investors could usually ride out a recession without touching their retirement funds. But anyone under that income - well, 2008 - 2010 was a tough period that a lot of people who thought they had a secure future still haven't recovered from.
I've taken enough business courses to understand compounding of interest. And boy howdy, in the late 1980's/early 90's I couldn't get away from constant the "no matter how much you make, 401K investments can get you over a Million dollars in a Retirement fund with just 10% investment and your company's match for every paycheck if you start when you're 21..." spiel the investment firms were pushing.
So yeah - if you can put aside $50 a month in a fund with a decent return, at the end of the year you can have some money to start growing on itself enough that in 10 years or so, you've got close to $100K.

And I also understand from hard experience that if you lose your primary income - even after you've zeroed out all expenses but the basics to maintain food, transportation, and shelter, it still takes six months to recover enough for every month spent without income before you'll be able to set aside $50 a month and still remain somewhat sane. As for unemployment? Basically pays the rent/mortgage, food, and utilities. Okay for one month, but anything longer, and you're hurting big time.

Got a chronic condition that requires medical care? Forget it. Can't afford COBRA payments on Unemployment. Got a car payment and insurance? You're living on Ramen and playing pushing off the bills games so as to keep the lights on. Take any job you can in the interim instead of Unemployment? Well, Unemployment is at least a bit more than that dead-end minimum wage job, and at least you can "work" at investing in a better future through retraining or more comprehensive job searches. And a part-time/contract job might be better than unemployment, the future is still uncertain. So you end up dipping into that retirement nest egg to pay for the "now" rather than ride it out...

And then after Unemployment, that "end of the month left-over" always ends up being an "emergency fund" to handle bumps ends up being spent before you can save it, no matter if you end up a with a significantly better paying job or one that paid the same.
So, as one siphons off retirement money to pay for things like car registration or maintenance, unexpected health costs, a kid's growing spurt...that money is gone. You might be able get back that money, but you've lost those months of compounding interest, even if you were to replace every dollar you took out.

Thing is, the primary issue with whether or not people can maintain savings during a disaster or recovery period is part and parcel of the reality of their emotional makeup.
Frankly, most people aren't the Steely-Eyed Financial Shark who can sacrifice everything just to keep a buck.
People don't like to expose their children to life as an economic refugee, nor do they want others to know they're "not worthy" while they are struggling to make ends meet. And sometimes, people just have to do something to keep from giving up in self loathing and despair at all those "failings" - financial and social - that they're dealing with.
I'm not talking about using the $50K to $150K or so in savings or retirement money lost due to spending on big ticket fashion statements to keep up with the Jones while looking for work - I'm talking about the little bits of nickel-dime "when we can afford it" normalcy that people under stress cling to.
The $15 a month Netflix account. The $5 coffee mess payment at work. The once a month $20 "let's get take the family out to Rally's for burgers and shakes" Saturday night Splurge.
Yes, they add up and take away from "Fiscal Responsibility" of planning for the future - but these small expenditures make the period of recovery bearable and keep attitudes somewhat positive enough so that the person or family can continue to move forward and succeed.

It's a human condition that is too often met with scorn by people who to often don't appreciate the amount of luck they have experienced when considering their own personality quirks and "weaknesses".

In closing the primary consideration as to how the average person handles retirement savings should come down to this - Why was it so important to keep expanding Social Security retirement in the 1950's through 1970's, if the workforce was at peak employment and a significant amount of people made enough they could afford to purchase a new vehicle or a home - and still save?
Why were Pensions far more important to the average American worker than putting money in the stock market?
The simple fact is that the *average worker* could make enough to save some money for the future, but never really make enough to retire on unless his or her life was perfect - with consistent employment, manageable bills, secure housing and good health.
That doesn't happen - unless one was a government or union employee who started work in the late 1950's/1960's and could retire fully vested with a secure pension at the same worksite in the 1990's/2000's...

Haele

[Johnny2X2X]

11. I can appreciate all of that

But the fact is that 2 out of every 3 Americans that are offered a 401k choose not to invest in it. That means people simply aren't saving anything. Those people are in terrible situations when trouble hits as well. Worse actually.

[nikibatts]

6. He won't even hire to Federal workers to keep the agencies moving smoothly. He alone accounts for

.01 percent rise in unemployment.

[workinclasszero]

7. Yeah and wait till their Deathcare bill get passed and hospitals and nursing homes shut down

across the country.

Fox news will be all over that story...oh wait.

[Gothmog]

9. There will be no trump bump because trump is too stupid to pass any major legislation