Generic Ballot Model Gives Democrats Early Advantage in Battle for Control of House
Alan I. Abramowitz, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball
July 6th, 2017
Results of recent special elections have fueled speculation about whether Democrats have a realistic chance to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. Although Republican candidates have won recent special elections for seats vacated by President Donald Trump’s Cabinet appointees in Georgia, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina, the GOP victory margins in all four contests have been much smaller than those for the former Republican incumbents in 2016.
While Democrats have pointed to the substantial vote swing in these four special elections as a sign that a wave election may be coming in 2018, Republicans have emphasized the failure of Democrats to actually capture any of these Republican seats, especially the hotly contested seat vacated by Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District, as an indicator that they should have a good chance to hold onto their majority in the midterm elections.
In reality, the results of a handful of special elections probably provide little information about what to expect next fall. Fortunately, there is a better way of predicting the outcomes of midterm elections based on something called the “generic ballot.” This is a question included in numerous national polls asking voters about which party they prefer in the upcoming House elections. It turns out that the results of this generic ballot test can be used to accurately forecast the House seat swing in midterm elections.
The president’s party almost always loses House seats in midterm elections — this has been true in 16 of 18 midterm elections since World War II. However, these elections have produced a wide range of outcomes, from a gain of eight seats in 2002 to a loss of 63 seats in 2010. So what explains the variability in midterm results and what can we expect in 2018?
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http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/generic-ballot-model-gives-democrats-early-advantage-in-battle-for-control-of-house/
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