Why would Kim ever actually attack?

[Takket]

He's got a pretty sweet deal. He is treated as a God, gets anything he wants, and who cares if anyone calls him out? He'll just have them executed.

If he attacks, he dies....... pretty plain and simple. So why would he ever throw away a life of luxury to kill americans?

[WhiskeyGrinder]

1. To do it on his own terms and as the ultimate fuck you to the U.S.

It's a hell of a legacy, you have to admit.

[tavernier]

5. Crazy enough to wipe out his entire country

and all the inhabitants?

Sounds like it, doesn't it? And trump will probably oblige him. Lunatics both.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

9. Persecution and superiority are hallmarks in the national thinking as a result of decades of

propaganda. There isn't a hidden "understanding" of the ridiculousness of it all or a careful, private, in-home relaxing of belief like there was in the Soviet Union. What you see is what you get. It's immensely sad, really.

[BannonsLiver]

2. That's why I think this is a bunch of hullabaloo.

[PSPS]

13. It is, but the MSM loves to play up this stuff for viewers/$$$$

It's pretty sad that so many people, including many on DU, are getting sucked into the fear/outrage media industry and soiling themselves.

[Kablooie]

3. Also he controls their media so he could tell his populace he attacked...

and get the benefits without any of the consequences.

[underpants]

4. He has no concern with humans. He's grown up completely insulated.

He has no connection to the outside world anymore. Sound familiar?

He also knows that his people will never know if he fails and he personally will be safe.

[dawg]

6. I don't think he will.

I'm much more worried about our idiots launching a first strike.

[yuiyoshida]

7. Right NOW ...I think TRUMP is more dangerous than

Kim Jong un, this idiot is playing with fire, toy soldiers and he doesn't give a fuck about anyone but his OWN SORRY ASS.

HE has to go.

[Solly Mack]

8. He wants the world to acknowledge that NK is a nuclear power.

He wants respect - as he defines it (same as Trump does actually) - and he wants a seat at the table with other nuclear powers and not lectures on why NK shouldn't be a nuclear power.

Of course other nations have a different idea about NK being a nuclear power. Jong-un finds that attitude insulting - that he, a crazy man (but not crazy to his thinking) should not have nukes.

An attack by NK would be truly bad for NK, horrible for SK, and not good for us either. No one, really.

Lot of people will die. Lot of people will be forever maimed.

Jong-un will give one-up responses to Trump as long as Trump continues to run his mouth.

That's where the immediate danger lies. Trump can't shut the fuck up and Jong-un won't back down. (unless he thinks he is getting the respect he & NK deserves as a nuclear power - mostly him, of course.)

Saving face is a real thing.

And Trump is too stupid to understand this - even though he lives by it.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

11. Well said.

[Solly Mack]

14. I hope someone has stuffed a gag - a ball gag - in Trump's mouth and

if necessary - chop off his fingers. Lock him in room by himself without any means of communication and leave him there for as long as it takes.

Because what is needed now is diplomacy and everyone knows Trump can't do diplomacy.

[beachbum bob]

10. If cornered...Kim attacks south Korea and all hell breaks loose...

Trump is a moron and is clueless about everything...a tweet could start ww3

[Not Ruth]

18. Why would Kim attack South Korea?

Have you ever heard him say that he would ever attack South Korea? Because it is convenient?

[beachbum bob]

20. always been NK intent and if feel cornered, Kim will has nothing to lose

[bronxiteforever]

27. umm-Over 28000 American troops in South Korea

[Not Ruth]

28. So the only thing keeping South Korea safe are those US troops?

Let's remove them and see what happens.

[bronxiteforever]

29. Where did I say that?

[defacto7]

12. The sheer boredom

of a megalomaniac.

[maxsolomon]

15. Does he believe his own bullshit?

I doubt it - saber rattling is his survival strategy.

[irisblue]

16. The North Korean military surely understands what will happen if missiles go. They will cease to liv

There is no way their country would survive.

[Dyedinthewoolliberal]

17. Good Question.

I don't think for a minute, crazy as he seems that he would do it. I also never thought Hillary would lose to you know who...........

[briv1016]

19. He's third generation dictator. He was born with a warped perspective of the world

and fed anyone who tried to talk reason to him to dogs.

[shenmue]

26. Yep

[sunonmars]

21. He thinks he's invincible, madmen do not have conscience

[Willie Pep]

22. I think Kim would attack if he thought we were going to attack first.

But otherwise, yes I still think that mutually assured destruction would keep Kim from attacking in most scenarios.

[Blue_true]

23. He dies and his children die. nt

[Igel]

24. You're evaluation his options from your position.

Flip it around and evaluate his options given his position, what he believes and thinks.

Now, here's a question: If Guam or even Portland were taken out by a nuke, what would we do?

"We'd lob 20 000 nuclear missiles at him and destroy the planet." Really?

Let's dial that back a bit. Okay, a lot. We hurl one serious nuke at him. Let's single-step through it.

China and Russia see a nuclear weapon heading their way. We say it's heading towards Pyongyang. We'd have to let them know in advance. Let's assume they mostly believe us. Do they change the status of their forces? Their nuclear weapons, perhaps. Perhaps not. Their ground forces? For sure. Either way, there's more room for a mistake.

So the nuke hits Pyongyang. What happens? A lot of confusion. A lot of chaos. Did we take out all of their weapons and capability? Probably not. Maybe they lob more--in for a penny, in for a pound, right? So more Americans die if those additional bombs find their targets. The alternative is multiple nukes lobbed at PRNK.

The chaos is unlikely to be confined the N. Korea. It'll spill over and create a mess on the Chinese, Russian, and S. Korean borders. Perhaps the "mess" won't just be refugees but military. Either way, that many refugees would be a disaster for S. Korea. And for Americans in S. Korea. The greater the nuclear devastation produced there, the greater the chaos.

Nuclear bombs produce fall out. Where does the fall out go? What's airborne goes towards the US: Westerlies. What lands in the ocean goes towards the US. The greater the number of nuclear devices, the greater the fall out.

Consider "world opinion," set by a very small percentage of the world's population speaking with the moral force of very little: Big Western Country uses nuclear force--again!!--against a smaller Asian country. Opprobrium will follow. Few will defend N. Korea, to be sure, but even here the crazy Asian who's developed nuclear weapons over the last twenty years and tested them and ICBMs a number of times will be seen as somehow off the hook because America should be so much superior. Plus it's Trump.

There's be a huge humanitarian crisis there, hundreds of thousands in even more need than they are now. Brought to you by Major Imperialist Power #1.

The only good thing from using nuclear weapons against an active nuclear shooter is stopping him and serving as a deterrent. Who else, exactly, would we be deterring? Iran? Pakistan? I think perhaps so but others insist that Iran is cute and cuddly. Pakistan, not to much, but it's got the knives out for India.

That said, what's the likelihood of him succeeding in a single-strike nuclear attack without experiencing a retaliatory strike and privation significantly worse than his people are already enjoying?

[panader0]

25. No, he just wants to be player in the nuclear club.

[GoCubsGo]

30. Because he's an ignorant, narcisisstic nutjob with bad hair.

He's not a whole lot different than the ignorant, narcissistic nutjob with bad hair that runs this country who wants to start a nuclear war, too, because he can.

[Cicada]

31. Kim said they will use nukes only if we attack first.

If we attack he knows we will kill him, like we killed Saddam Hussein. And if we attack he knows there will be massive NK deaths and suffering. So defending the honor of his society is a kind of rational response. Nukes away once we attack them.

[Not Ruth]

33. Guam reads this post uneasily

[kairos12]

32. He wouldn't die. Before he attacks he takes the last train to China and waits it out.

[lindysalsagal]

34. Exactly. He won't do it. He just likes parades.