How it would go down on the Korean Penninsula

[RandySF]

Please pardon the brevity and grammar. I'm on vacation with no computer in sight but I feel this needs to be said.

Whatever North Korea's current state of technology, they will not launch a preemptive nuclear strike that results in their destruction. But if whips his tiny dick out and orders air strikes, Kim will respond with conventional artillery and missile attacks on Seoul which may or not be followed by a ground assault across the DMZ. In any case, US/ROK forces would suffer severe casualties, thousands of civilians will be killed and the 11th largest economy in the world will be wiped off the face of the earth. And how would the conflict END? It would end very ugly with a massive US invasion or that nuclear strike Trump's been looking for. So if the deplorables want to ask why Obama held out hope for diplomacy, there you go.

[Not Ruth]

1. Why wouldn't NK use nukes off the bat?

They have made zero threats against SK by the way. They have however threatened Guam.

[RandySF]

3. Then the US responds with nukes. Assured Destruction

[Not Ruth]

5. If NK attacks SK, same thing happens.

And the SK will shoot back. Which is no certainty if NK attacks Guam and leavees their brothers in SK alone. Only wild card is that Kim has killed his brother before.

[canetoad]

2. Yup

And where's Rex in all of this?

[still_one]

4. Nothing is going to go down on the Korean Pennisula. That is my prediction. Things will either

remain in a stalemate, or a third party will somehow be able to get the U.S. and NK back to the negotiating table

[Not Ruth]

6. If all Kim wants is sanctions lifted, that is easy, he just has to agree to terms

[RandySF]

7. I hope you're right. I'm painting the worst-case scenario

But I'm hearing much of the same talking among Trimp's people that I heard about Iraq in 2002/3.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

8. Same... scary.

[Stryst]

9. For the last few years in a row, NK has imported more and more grain

I suspect that this whole show of force is related to the report on the upcoming harvest, and will be followed up with another demand for aid from the UN.