How did NK get so advanced so quickly?

[Dave Starsky]

Seriously, it seems like not even a year ago, they couldn't get an Estes Big Bertha (Remember those?) off the pad, and now they're talking about delivering nukes to Alaska.

Am I the only one who finds this odd? It's like they just skipped 10 turns in Civ 5.

[EL34x4]

1. A massive failure of U.S. intelligence.

They really took us by surprise. Apparently, we didn't think they'd be at where they are now for at least another decade.

You can bet there's a lot of people with very high government pay grades who are being asked these very same questions by people with even higher pay grades.

[longship]

2. Plus, they don't always tell the truth.

I am not yet too worried about nuclear rain from the DPRK.

I am much more worried about Drumpf's "fire and fury".

[Lurks Often]

21. Yes and No

We have no spies in NK, I doubt anyone does, except possibly the Chinese who MAY have a few of North Koreans working for them.

So basically the only intelligence we have is satellite intelligence and signal intelligence (radio and other types of broadcasting). Both of these types of intelligence can be countered: satellite by only doing things when the satellites are not overhead and signal intelligence by only using landlines and/or messengers.

So while US intelligence has failed, I am reluctant to place any blame on the failure.

[oasis]

3. Red China.

[rufus dog]

19. quite possible

Could be Chinese missles and tech that are being used to ramp things up.

[FSogol]

4. Chinese businessmen sold them the tech while the govt looked the other way. n/t

[FLPanhandle]

5. It's not that advanced, they have reached US 1950's level rocket technology

Just like the US in the 1950's, there were a lot of public test failures, but the basic intercontinental rocket is not considered advanced technology in 2017. Almost country that wants to dump the resources into rockets and nuclear bombs, can do so now. It's just expensive as hell and most smaller (and less crazy) countries don't bother.

The problem isn't the technology, it's the crazy factor of North Korea's leadership.

Frankly, they should have been dealt with much more firmly over the last 15 years. The world kept rewarding them every time they sabre rattled and then promised to stop. That was a failed strategy. China is mostly to blame here.

[uponit7771]

22. +1

[betsuni]

6. Something's going on, it's all of a sudden.

China or Russia.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. They had help

China and/or Russia snuck in and helped them. Probably Russia IMO, Putin wants chaos.

[yallerdawg]

10. Good storytelling can be informative.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

8. Denial on our part and once you get things right it's not hard to accelerate.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

9. I mean, it hasn't happened quickly. They've been working toward this for decades and all of the

country's resources are put toward the goal. And the way it was covered over the years didn't help: every time there was an advancement, officials played down how it "wasn't a nuke yet" and hoped something would deter them before the next step. Every time they tested a missile, most people ignored it because it landed in the Sea of Japan without digging in to flight time and apogee. Every time NK had a parade, we laughed because it was so ridiculous. But it was all right there all along, if you knew where to look.

[Not Ruth]

11. Somehow motivated by the 2016 election to speed up the science

The scary thing is if they continue at this rate, their nuclear capability may surpass ours soon.

[Adrahil]

13. What?

They are accomplishing now what we were capable of 60 years ago.

[Not Ruth]

16. They advanced 10 years in 6 months

At that rate, they could advance 100 years in 60 months

[Adrahil]

17. Ah, humor was lost on me, sorry! NT

[Adrahil]

12. It's odd, because it is not quite true....

1) They successfully launched ONE ICBM. That doesn't represent a repeatable capability.

2) They have NOT demonstrated a re-entry of a warhead. That's a critical capability, and not trivial.

3) While the intelligence claims that NK has miniaturized a warhead, there is no evidence they tested it.

4) U.S. intelligence estimated in the late 90's that NK could potentially have this capability in 2015.

5) The possibility, even the likelihood, that China lent some technical assistance. Tensions on the Korean peninsula serve their interests. They don't want war, but they do want to distract from their own ambitions, and occupy the West

[Not Ruth]

15. China must be happy with 6 THAADs deployed

[Adrahil]

18. TBH, they don't REALLY care.

That's something they can complain publicly about. But China understands that the REAL power in the coming decades is economic, not military. While keeping the U.S. distracted (and spending LOTS of money) with military kerfuffles, China is building a massive industrial infrastructure to be the world leader in next-generation energy technologies. We're being played.

[underpants]

20. Good info

Thanks

[Not Ruth]

14. China and Russia border NK

Did someone defect to North Korea on a Sunday afternoon drive?

[TheBlackAdder]

23. Shit. People have been publishing nuke plans for years. Many were taken down after 9/11.