Pre-emptive war with North Korea likely means a war with China

[Casprings]

With all the talk of a "military option", one needs to account for the possiablity/likelihood of war with China. The two countries have a treaty (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-North_Korean_Mutual_Aid_and_Cooperation_Friendship_Treaty) that would seem to commit China if the US is first to attack North Korea. Given the N. Korean behavior, is this 100%? No. But we should at least start to take about how this could expand. The public isn't even thinking about this.

[C_U_L8R]

1. Putin must be laughing his ass off

[Akoto]

2. My perspective is...

Right now, both powers seem to be playing a verbal game of chicken, but it's North Korea launching test missiles and now threatening to land four (I believe?) missiles in the waters of Guam, which is a US territory. They are the antagonists at this point.

If North Korea's provocations cross a certain line as regarded by the world stage, I believe its regime will quickly lose China's protection. Why protect a family of insane dictators who never cease to be a problem for them, now threatening a world power directly with nukes? When the line is crossed, China will drop them. The regime isn't worth the loss of face to protect, economically and politically.

[DRoseDARs]

6. Yeah, I can't see them tanking their own economy with their major trade partner...

...Over the peanuts-worth of trade they get out of North Korea. China wants to eat at the adult's table, not make mudcakes with Kim in the backyard.

[stevenleser]

3. It wouldn't happen. China is too dependent on the US as a marketplace to enter the war

on behalf of NK.

China is also pretty exasperated with NK at this point.

[TheFrenchRazor]

7. once they defeat us, our markets will be their markets, and realistically, given that about 90%

of stuff america needs and uses is made in china, it doesn't seem like it would take very long for them to bring this country to a standstill, and start dictating terms to us, if they wanted to.

[stevenleser]

11. There is no defeating between China, Russia and the US

Any wars between the three either have minor victories or leave no victors. There is no unconditional surrender.

[Calista241]

12. A trade war (or a conventional war) with China will hurt us, but it will devastate China's economy.

Assuming the conflict doesn't go nuclear, US Navy subs can shut down commercial shipping from Chinese ports.

We are their main trading partner, and their economy is designed to produce shit Americans want. They cannot just turn around are start selling that stuff to Germany, Russia, Mexico or whoever else. Those countries don't have the physical resources built to handle increased shipping capacity or any other myriad of factors. That's even before those countries consider that increased trade with China means reduced trade with the US.

[syringis]

4. Or...

...more likely means, the World to fire and sword

[roamer65]

5. China would go to a war production footing.

They would also start behaving like an empire.

[gordianot]

8. Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) still holds.

North Korea is not a member of the club. China is a member they know better.

[Cicada]

9. General McArthur thought China would do little in Korea in the Korean War

But China felt threatened by our northward march and ran us right back down the peninsula.

Are we going to make the same mistake twice?

[defacto7]

10. It's a very different China now.

Totally different politics and circumstances both here and there.

[Cosmocat]

13. If at all possible, yes

See the replies in this thread.

[Cosmocat]

14. Did people miss Iraq, Afganistan, Vietnam and

Korea the first time?

WYD do we have to keep learning the sane hid damned lesson, time after time after time?

Yeah, we swing a HUGE military dick. But, everytime we swing it outside of those moments when the fate if the world us on the line, it ends up a disaster.

And, before all of the "this time is different" bullshit starts, that is what everyone said about ... Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea ...

Oh, and two years ago about Iran. Except we had a smart, tough and sharp POTUS who took care of that without swinging the big dick.

Us unilaterally striking NK militarily does not end well. We KNOW that cause, you know, we've been here going on a half dozen times since WWII.