Odds of Arapaio getting pardoned tonight?

[nolabear]

I'll say 10-to-1 against. I'm not wildly confident because you can't predict anything about that fuckweasel but if he does it it sends the unambiguous message that he approves of brutality and illegal acts by law enforcement and he lives for "you didn't hear what you think you heard" ambiguity.

[lapfog_1]

1. I think its 50-50

why else come to Arizona?

And the one thing the Donald loves is loyalty (to him).

I mean I wouldn't even be surprised if DJT pardons the asshole but then nominates him for DHS to "get the wall done"

[nolabear]

3. What a thought.

[leftynyc]

28. I think he PLANNED to pardon him

when the rally was announced but he wasn't expecting the blizzard of shit coming down on him after Charlottesville. Now it's just not good optics. That's the only thing he cares about.

[Brother Buzz]

2. The orange one doesn't have enough political capital pardon Arapaio

But anything's possible with Commander Cuckoo-Bananas in charge

[0rganism]

19. does current capital level apply to anything Trump does?

seems to me, his pattern is to do whatever the fuck he wants and leverage any capital he lacks at the moment, then stiff the people who help out and if the venture goes bust declare bankruptcy and walk out before the bill comes due. not sure what the correct political analogy is, but i suspect the GOP is going to have to back up his loans and will have quite a lot of payback pending by 2020.

[Brother Buzz]

21. 2020?

There's a balloon payment coming due in 2018, and the midterm season will start early this cycle.

[0rganism]

24. yeah 2018 is going to be very interesting

a challenging experiment for GOP reps into how much they can run away from racist sexist Trump without alienating their racist sexist base... it will be interesting to observe the solutions they come up with and compare to electoral results

[Shrike47]

4. He could be going to Arizona to "show" Sen. Flake, who dared to criticize him.

See, I'm more popular than you, in your own state!

[yellowcanine]

20. And also McCain, for his vote against ACA repeal.

So there are two reasons. Doesn't mean he won't pardon Racist Joe, though.

[leftynyc]

29. Donnie's a slug

but I don't think he's going to go after McCain while he's being treated for cancer. Flake for sure but not McCain.

[WoonTars]

5. I hope, zero, but you never know..after defending nazis

...if he were to pardon this disgusting racist, i really think the shit will hit the fan in the gop. The 'moderates' will have no choice but to jettison him or else risk having him hung around their necks next November..

[janterry]

6. If not tonight

he'll pardon him soon.

I fully expect that it's coming - it's just a question of when.

[hlthe2b]

8. Yeah... I sort of think aids may have talked him out of doing it tonight @ rally, but...

that doesn't mean he won't do it and soon.

[Arazi]

7. 100% he pardons Arpaio. If not tonight, then soon

[Hassin Bin Sober]

11. Agree. His base will love it.

[mikeargo]

38. Maybe Labor Day Weekend

When nobody is paying attention.

[geek tragedy]

9. 80% he pardons him. He lives for the spectacle nt

[AlexSFCA]

10. very likely

pardoning Arpaio will make it easier for trump to launch mass deportations. Sherrifs across the country will feel empowered and large scale racial profiling can become reality. There is no political capital, republicans voters support his plan.
If he doesn't pardon him, his base will be upset after he teased them with 'seriously considering'.

[Different Drummer]

12. No question he'll do it. It's just a matter of when. n/t

[louis c]

13. Here's what I think

Trump is going to Arizona and his team is telling him not to pardon Arpaio. Trump will consent. His "handlers" are sending the VP to baby sit.

Then, when Trump is on stage, he will announce, to the chagrin of VP Pence, that the sheriff is pardoned.

Since I think Trump is 100% bat shit crazy, I think the pardon is a 100% sure thing.

[nolabear]

14. I'm so conflicted. He's so good at screwing people.

Everybody thinks they're the ones who can tame the beast. 😄

[MyOwnPeace]

17. That makes SO much sense.......

that I'm SO afraid he'll do it.

But then again, when you're BAT-SHIT CRAZY nothing can make sense - and Orange Cheat-o is 100% BAT-SHIT CRAZY!

[dalton99a]

18. If Arpaio shows up, you can bet Trump will either do the actual signing or make the announcement

[dalton99a]

15. Arpaio will not spend one day in jail

Deplorables will not allow it

[NoChildSupport]

16. His conviction was....

a misdemeanor. At best, he will maybe get probation. I doubt he will get a pardon.

[workinclasszero]

22. I'm betting 100%

It would be another dog whistle to Trump's nazi/kkk base that he still has their back.

[L. Coyote]

23. In 2011 @Sarah_Gilman examined his shocking legacy; remains timely

Link to tweet

[VigilantG]

25. Although Arpaio says he was not invited to the rally this evening

He did say he would accept a pardon.

Guilty!

[panader0]

26. Arapaio doesn't even get sentenced until October.

[randr]

27. Gonna throw the dogs a bone

[left-of-center2012]

30. 200 to 1 he will n/t

[C_U_L8R]

31. Trump will make a big gaudy show if it

"Behold, with my awesome powers I pardon you. Kneel and kiss the ring.

[jmowreader]

32. I think the odds of Trump pardoning Arpaio tonight are zero

And that's because I think Trump already has pardoned Arpaio, but hasn't told the public yet. Tonight is when Trump nominates Arpaio to be head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

As for Trump's inner circle doing anything to stop him from pardoning Arpaio? Forget it. Trump's group is a religious cult with Donny Two Scoops as its messiah. He can do ANYTHING, up to and including violent crimes, and they'd accept it.

[sarcasmo]

33. I'M all in on a pardon tonight.

[Soxfan58]

34. 75-25

It will be his little wink, wink to his racist base. Saying I'm still on your side.

[alcibiades_mystery]

35. 35-1

[montana_hazeleyes]

36. He would get a huge ecstatic reaction for it.

He lives for that.

[Hieronymus]

37. Not tonight, but later.