Trump has sent out a subtle and implicit message to Flynn and Manafort: hang tight, I have your back

[Miles Archer]

The announcement that President Trump on Friday night had pardoned former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio for criminal contempt of court sent shockwaves across the legal and political spectrum. Many immediately chalked up the controversial move by the president as an act of political patronage given Arpaio’s outspoken support during the presidential campaign and the two men’s similar views on combating illegal immigration. The larger and more overtly strategic message being conveyed by the president, however, has nothing to do with Arpaio. This abrupt decision, bereft of customary vetting and review by the Justice Department, almost certainly has everything to do with one matter alone: the ongoing investigation into alleged collusion between the president’s campaign and the Russian Government, and President Trump’s desire to allay the concerns of his erstwhile campaign associates.

The ongoing #RussiaGate probe, now led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, continues to weigh heavily on the mind of the president. White House staffers and Senate Republicans routinely leak to the media stories of the president’s obsession with Mueller’s investigation, and his demand that his political allies “protect” him from it. Mueller, meanwhile, has continued to tighten the legal noose around at least two former senior Trump aides, former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and former campaign chairman Paul Manafort. Media reports indicate Mueller has relied upon two separate grand juries to authorize subpoenas of Flynn’s business records, to authorize a pre-dawn raid of Manafort’s home, and to compel sworn testimony by various Manafort associates.

Mueller’s investigation also has begun to ensnare members of Trump’s own family. Jared Kushner and Donald Trump, Jr. are both in a bit of legal hot water. Kushner’s inexplicable difficulties in properly completing his security clearance paperwork and outlining the extent of his ties to Russian nationals has raised questions about whether there is something he is trying to conceal. Trump, Jr., of course, infamously bit hard on an offer from a Russian business connection to meet in the midst of the presidential campaign to receive opposition research materials that were going to be provided by the Russian Government.

The president’s loyalty to his son and son-in-law is unbreakable, at least for now, and that loyalty is no doubt reciprocated by both men with respect to the president. The same cannot necessarily be presumed for the likes of Flynn and Manafort (or their respective subordinates). Both men had long careers prior to working for President Trump, and the president cannot expect that they will be willing to take the fall for him for any criminal misconduct that may have occurred during the course of the campaign. At the same time, “flipping” Flynn or Manafort (or both, if possible) is presumably part and parcel of at least one aspect of Mueller’s current investigative strategy. Building a case against the two men, and using the leverage of potentially severe criminal penalties to strike a deal in exchange for their testimony about the inner workings of the Trump campaign, would be an understandable path for Mueller to pursue. If there was a crime committed within an organization, any reasonable prosecutor would operate under the assumption (until shown evidence to the contrary) that involvement in it went all the way to the top. A fish stinks from the head down, and there was no one more senior in the campaign than President Trump himself.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pardoning-arpaio-was-about-more-than-saving-a-political_us_59a0f03be4b0d0ef9f1c1401

[gohuskies]

1. Pardoning traitors colluding with Russia is beyond unconscionable

This son of a b*tch is just that much of a traitor as any in American history.

[Corgigal]

2. So yo congress

Bill time, anytime a sitting president is under a felony investigation, pardon power paused.

I mean, this should have been done 100 years ago.

[madville]

7. Congress can't limit or take away a President's Constitutional powers

They would have to alter the Constitution probably.

[panader0]

3. The message is not really that subtle.

I believe that message is probably the reason for his pardon of Arpaio.
The Russian investigation is far higher on Trump's list of concerns
than what might happen to Joe. Flynn and Manafort are much closer
to the real dirt.

[matt819]

4. Hang on a sec

I don't think a pre-conviction pardon is an option.

So the patsies would have to be convicted first before the fascist-in-chief could grant a pardon. And they would have to be convicted of federal crimes.

The key seems to be timing and jurisdiction. I suspect that Mueller and his Band of Brothers, along with a handful of states attorneys general, have this under control.

Also, there remains the option of civil lawsuits. Although the putative head of the gestapo, Arpaio, may not be long for this world, these could tie him in knots during his remaining years. And, although I'm not entirely sure of this, the pardon confirms guilt, and so assertions of innocence won't work in any civil suits.

[madville]

8. The President can pardon someone at anytime for any federal crime

You don't have to be convicted or even under investigation to receive a pardon. Nixon was pre-emptively pardoned before ever being tried or convicted of anything. Casper Weinberger was pre-emptively pardoned by Bush senior in the Iran Contra mess.

[dawnie51]

5. What this Arpaio thing is all about.....

Dump doesn't give a damn about Arpaio. But this speaks directly to his former Russian liasons....do right by me, I'll set you free.

[customerserviceguy]

6. Flynn, yes

Manafort, I'm not so sure. He did let Don Junior and Kushner into that room with the Russian woman promising dirt on Hillary, and he should have known better because of his campaign experience. Trump is not likely to be forgiving for that.

[krawhitham]

9. If he pardons them they no longer can plead the fifth