Florida Evacuations Proves Houston Residents Did Not Have Time To Leave.

[TheMastersNemesis]

Florida will have had days to evacuate virtually most of the state as will the Carolinas and Georgia where the worst will hit. Even with all this time there is a good bet that not everyone will make it out in time. Houston had no chance to evacuate and there was a very good chance thousands would have been trapped on flooding highways with no place to go.

Even now evacuees face 8 or 9 hour trips If they are NOT stuck in traffic into the interior where there are not enough places to stay.k Plus many stations are running out of gas and many cars and trucks, particularly gas guzzlers will run out of gas before they reach their destination. Many will be sleeping in their cars.

[Not Ruth]

1. Well, had they listened to me.....

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=9550950

[ananda]

2. Also, this is a different type of storm.

Irma is mainly a wind and surge storm.
So evacuating will work well since the
farther inland you are, the better.

Harvey was a slow-moving huge rain storm.
So evacuating wouldn't have worked very
well since the floods extended so far out.

[TheMastersNemesis]

3. That Fact Is True. The Floods Were Extensive.

This storm is going to effect a very wide area as well.

[bathroommonkey76]

6. The places that will see the most flooding will be in the NC/TN/GA mountains.

In the past these kinds of storms have destroyed mountain communities across all of the states I mentioned. Basically, it all depends on the track of the storm.

[FBaggins]

4. Yes and no

We didn't know that Harvey was a "slow-moving huge rain storm" until after it struck and then stalled in place.

But yes... the two really can't be compared/

[SharonAnn]

7. Actually, the prediction (days before) was slow and heavy heavy rain.

There were projections of possible 3-4 feet of rain and that Harvey would likely park over the area and move very slowly.

[FBaggins]

12. Again... yes and no

There's "slow and heavy rains" and then there's "slow and heavy rains" if you know what I mean?

We're about three days out from Irma coming ashore somewhere in Florida (with some evaluation plans reported two days ago). Here's what Harvey looked like 2-3 days before it struck:

Harvey could bring a storm surge of 6 to 12 feet above ground level; rainfall of 12 to 20 inches could bring floods, with some areas getting as much as 30 inches of water from Friday into next week, the National Weather Service agency said in an advisory Thursday morning.

"On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend," the hurricane center says.

and:

To complicate matters, the most dangerous aspect of this hurricane may be days of rainfall and associated flooding. Many of our best models suggests that Harvey will make landfall, which brings immediate problems, and then linger for days as a weak tropical system. This danger may be lost on the average citizen that mistakenly perceives the danger to be "over" once the storm makes landfall. Some early model guidance suggests that a weakened version of Harvey could remain parked over the area for almost a week. The National Weather Service is estimating over 15-20 inches of rainfall. Frankly, I cannot rule out isolated amounts of 2 to 3 feet.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/08/24/four-dangers-of-hurricane-harvey-that-may-not-be-obvious-to-the-public/#599084295e17

So yes... they thought that there would be lots of rain (it's a hurricane after all) and thought it would "stall"... but I'm sure that we can agree that "12-20 inches... with some areas getting as much as 30 inches" is very different from what ended up happening... with reporting of a record 51 inches of rain in Houston (the highest ever recorded for a single storm in the continental US)

[More_Cowbell]

10. Harvey was stuck between two fronts

And there was plenty of information beforehand that it would sit there spinning over Houston. But there were still only a few days of notice, not the week or so that FL has had with Irma.

[bearsfootball516]

5. Right now, projections have it moving along the east side of Florida

If you're in the middle of the state and inland, just bunker down in a safe place, and you'll be fine. Those people don't need to evacuate. It's people along the coastlines that should be out of there.

[Baclava]

18. Never trust their predictions completely, Euro model now has it shifting west

[csziggy]

8. Florida has unique challenges to evacuation

For one, with Irma the possible paths made it hard to decide which areas should be evacuated and what direction to go. If Irma went through the keys, up the west coast and into west Georgia or east Alabama, one set of people needed to go. If Irma went up the east coast, as now predicted, an entirely different set of people needed to get out.

If the worst case scenario came to pass and Irma went straight up the middle of the peninsula, the numbers of people who would need to be move would have been completely impossible. The numbers for the other two possibilities are bad enough and as now demonstrated, pretty much impossible.

The evacuation most likely to succeed is to move people out of the low lying coastal areas into the central, higher parts of the state. The Lake Wales Ridge runs from west of Lake Okeechobee to near Orlando so it is parallel to the coasts and within short driving distances for everything but the Keys. Rather than trying to move people completely away from the storm, move them into areas where storm surge is not a danger.

Of course, shelters would be a problem. Many of the smaller towns along the ridge do not have many hotels, are smaller and older populations so there are not as many schools and other public building to co-opt for shelters. But with the looming future of rising sea levels and increased storms with catastrophic surges, this should be considered for future disaster planning.

In the long run, the Lake Wales Ridge will BE peninsular Florida - so might as well plan on shifting populations over the next few decades rather than on a disaster by disaster method.

[shraby]

11. That's not the only challenge with evacuating. Florida is a peninsula. Only one direction to go to

evacuate and that's north. Other states people have a choice of heading east, west or north. Takes the stress out of trying to get out by the very few highways going north only.

People with larger boats can move into the gulf and into a coastal state, but that isn't a large percent of the population in Florida.

[csziggy]

13. exactly - there are few choices

That's why trying to get everyone out of the possible paths of the storm is impossible. Best bet is to get them away from the biggest danger - storm surge - away from the coasts and on higher ground.

I've lived in Florida all my life and would never own anything on a coast. Heck, I never wanted to own any waterfront property, though I inherited one lot across the street from a lake. My family lived in Central Florida, just a little south of Lakeland, on the central ridge. Mom still lives there, I have sisters in Orlando and north of Tampa, and I live on a 200 foot high ridge outside of Tallahassee.

We've all been through tropical storms and hurricanes, but never had flooding, just minor damage from wind.

As for boat owners, I am not sure they could have gotten out of the way of Irma - too much uncertainty for too long on the path. But I've never owned a boat and have no idea how fast they could get out of the way - or if they could get the fuel to do so!

[FBaggins]

9. The two aren't as comparable as you might think.

Looking at the potential track for Irma... where would you evacuate to?

Maybe enough people have canceled trips to Orlando that folks from the southern third of the state can stay at hotels there... but a huge percentage of Florida's only-slightly-smaller-than-Texas population lives much closer to sea level and is in the potential path of the storm. You might have to drive hundreds of miles (in evacuation traffic) to get to a place you can safely stay.

[csziggy]

14. Those white areas on your maps are the ridges that run down the middle of the peninsula

They are high enough to be safe from storm surges. That's where I would send people, not try to get them north and completely out of the path of the storm. Right now, there are going to be thousands stranded by lack of gas and by traffic gridlock on the major north-south roads. If they had been sent to shelters along the central axis of the state, not as much fuel would be needed, and not as many vehicles would be on those other roads.

[FBaggins]

19. Except that it isn't just a case of getting to higher ground

You need a place to stay.

There aren't sufficient "shelters along the central axis of the (northern half of) the state" for the endangered population. If you knew it was going to hit Miami that would be one thing... but there are several huge population centers that are potentially endangered.

[csziggy]

20. In a different post I acknowledged that

Of course, shelters would be a problem. Many of the smaller towns along the ridge do not have many hotels, are smaller and older populations so there are not as many schools and other public building to co-opt for shelters. But with the looming future of rising sea levels and increased storms with catastrophic surges, this should be considered for future disaster planning.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=9567376

In the long run Florida needs to begin planning on how to deal with more frequent large storms and increased events of higher and higher storm surges. While eventually those central ridges will flood if the sea levels rise 50 to 150 feet, it will be many decades before they are inundated. Planning can be done to help those who remain along the coasts over the next few decades.

I am worried Florida will see the similar problems with this storm to what Houston did with Hurricane Rita and that there may be many deaths because of the limited evacuation routes. People caught in cars along US-1 and A1A will be in grave danger with storm surge and high winds.

There are no good solutions, especially this late in the game. At this point the best hope is that this monster stays off shore but it will make landfall somewhere along the US east coast and there will be many lives torn apart no matter where it ends up.

I hope people stay safe no matter what choices they have made.

[RandomAccess]

15. The storm surge is expected to be as much as 20'

at least the last I heard.

That map is astonishing -- and it only goes to 10'.

Orlando, btw, has an elevation of 82'.

[Captain_New_York]

16. That map is in meters

10 meters is 32.8 feet

[RandomAccess]

17. D'oh

Thanks for pointing that out.