Attended a depressing presentation
We have a group in our area, called Westside Progressive. About once a month we have an interesting presentation: using heat pump to lower carbon footprint; planting pollinators to save the bees; civic forfeiture, etc.
Last month the organizer announced that he removed the "non partisan" part of the description, that we are clearly liberal.
Our speaker is a professor of political science, often invited to local TV stations to offer commentaries. We've had him before. He is an engaging speaker and last year told us the sad news that local elections to capture Republican Congressional seats would probably fail. He was right. He also suggested that Hillary was going to win Pennsylvania, the Scranton region, because Biden is from this region as was Hillary grandfather, or grand grandfather. (It was a voter from that area, after the elections, who expressed his opinion that a president is a man's job..)
No, I did not take notes. I like to listen, but here are some of the main points:
First, about himself, he worked on the Carter campaign is a young college freshman. In 1988 he participated in the New York primaries and chose Jackson. His Rainbow coalition. And he loved Standers' campaign because it excited many voters.
He started by referring to a biography book by Tip O'Neal who ran for JFK seat in the House in 1953. He was walking shaking hands and then ran into an old teacher and asked her to vote for him. She replied that, yes, she would, but that she was glad he asked.
Our speaker conclusion was that Hillary never asked us to vote for her. I don't know. I was going to vote for her no matter what so I don't remember. He added that she never clearly explained why she was running. Not "Hope and Change" not even "Make America Great Again." Yes, about 100 reasons that one could find in her campaign literature, but not one major specific cause.
Yes, I know, we, Democrats have problems with simplicity. We consider ourselves rational, thinking individuals and we want to address the voters the same way. We really don't like to talk down to them. This is how it was with Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, and Hillary. Bill Clinton was different. Really, there is no one like him, a rare combination of smart and compassionate and ability to interact with everyone at every level. And Obama - don't kill me now - many were excited by having a black president and this was enough. Of course, he is smart and funny and eloquent but how many were really taken by this?
He then mentioned another book by an Obama speech writer, I think, who detailed the winning campaign of 2008 and this was used by.... the Trump campaign. As far as where to visit.
He actually started by pointing that it is not just the 10 states that determine the winners;, it is specific counties within the stated and I think that this approach is gaining tract. I cannot remember the counties, but he gave examples from many states. I am sure that political scientists know them.
And, yes, he admitted that misogyny was a factor. I think that 42% of white women (don't remember whether college educated or not) voted for Trump. And I am thinking: why are we thinking Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren? Just to make a point?
He mentioned how McCain and Palin concentrated on safe Republican counties, or states, and this, for him indicated that they were scare. That they realized that they had to secure their base. He observed something similar with Hillary. Don't remember the specifics. He did question her visiting Arizona just days before the elections. Why, he wondered? Arizona? Because, she apparently said, Bill won Arizona..
He is not impressed with the "Better Deal" promoted by Schumer and Pelosi. What is it, he asked?
And I realized that Schumer, Pelosi, Harris, and Warren are all from the coast. And I have to wonder whether this really is the way go go. Sanders, too, for that matter.
The reality is that there is a reason why the White House changes hands every 8 years, more or less. Whether the candidate is a sitting V.P. - as it was with Nixon, Humphrey and Gore, or just a natural heir - Hillary, the candidate has to, on one hand promise to continue the policies that worked, while distancing himself or herself, to offer something new and exciting. And it is not going to work. The only recent exception has been Bush I and he lasted only one term. Voters, for some reason, loved Reagan and wanted to continue but, of course, Bush was no Reagan. Does not work when a V.P. is elevated to the post after the death of the president. He may win one elections, but then chooses not to run for a second term as we've seen with Truman and with LBJ. (Yes, Truman had Korea, LBJ had Vietnam, still.. (This are my thought, not the speaker)
At the end there was one question about the coal miners: Hillary was straight with them, saying that these jobs were gone forever. While Trump promised to bring them back. Aha, was the response. I am from this area. I talked to a cousin of mine, there has not been coal mining for decades. But Trump offered hope.
Told you it was depressing. But I think that these were sobering observations. That somewhere there are lessons to be implemented.
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