General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAs Rachel would say, someone please talk me down! Bain attacks backfiring?
What's going on here? I'm seeing reports that Obama/Democrats' attack ads on Bain are not having the desired impact. Indeed, it looks like Romney is unscathed in the national polls or even in some states. It seems that in swing states, it was having an impact initially, but that impact is now nearly nonexistent.
What's going on here? Someone talk me off the ledge. Are people just not getting it? Are they simply not paying attention? Or, do they view Obama's attacks as disingenuous?
Talk. Me. Down.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)I don't buy it. They are hurting him. Believe it.
immoderate
(20,885 posts)But if Obama is ready, there will be another... and another...
--imm
GarroHorus
(1,055 posts)Relax, there's no data to support what you are saying.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)ProSense
(116,464 posts)"Not a single poll released to date was taken AFTER the Bain/tax return attacks went into full push."
...the only poll that shows Romney with a one-point lead is the NYT poll, and that's down two points from the last NYT poll.
Even Fox has Obama ahead.
As you said, the poll periods ended Monday, barely enough time for people who were away the weekend to digest all the information coming out.
Romney's claim that the tax returns would be politically damaging were made late yesterday and today, and a lot more information has surfaced. It will only get worse.
GarroHorus
(1,055 posts)The poll is, by design, a "horse race poll" with no other purpose than to show the race as very close in order to gin up ratings.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)but that doesn't mean that it won't have impact but as long as the job market is weak, Obama is going to have a hard time.
GarroHorus
(1,055 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)We're working our asses off in VA and yet today it's close. Now, again, I'm fully aware that these polls are volatile, but still...
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,836 posts)And it's happening: http://www.democraticunderground.com/125157931
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)GarroHorus
(1,055 posts)On top of that, more than 13% of those polled are not even registered to vote.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)and the unemployment claims reports out today will not help either. Sorry, I can't sugar coat it but Obama is either going to win by a narrow margin or lose by a narrow margin. In the end it will be the economy not Romney's taxes that will decide the election.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)In the beginning the Bain issue seemed to have some traction, but these polls don't bear that out. And it's the economy. It's always the economy!
spanone
(135,873 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)One
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Enrique
(27,461 posts)expecting a couple of ads to have an immediate nationwide impact in the polls is expecting too much.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)in the swing states a few weeks ago. Now, not so much. Again, I hope you're right and I'm wrong.
Enrique
(27,461 posts)I thought it's been just a week or so.
nolabear
(41,991 posts)And something has to change. He has to either show something or the doubts pile up.
pnwmom
(108,994 posts)Even if Obama just stays even, he's better off keeping the focus on Romney and his deficiencies.
Lint Head
(15,064 posts)The debate will be Mitt's doom if he makes it past the convention.
RedStateLiberal
(1,374 posts)This is the one I check. There are polls from this week with mixed results. Fox News has Obama by +4!
Polls really don't matter much so far from election day IMHO but it's interesting to see the trends. I still don't put a lot of faith in any of them.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)aback by the fact that national polls haven't seemed to budge. (National polls are a snapshot in time.)
I hear what you're saying, though.
Feeling a bit better, just looking at trends. And yes, Real Clear Politics is an excellent resource. Thanks!
RedStateLiberal
(1,374 posts)I saw an interesting theory from someone on DU that if Obama is way ahead in the polls come election time, then that might encourage more turnout from the Repub base. They'll be motivated to get off their ass to vote if it's obvious Obama will win in a landslide and also Dems might be complacent and think it's in the bag. Of course the opposite also might be true. If Rmoney is way ahead in the polls, those who can't stand Mitt would be encouraged to get out and vote to defeat him. So, a close race in the polls might not be a bad thing, and a lead by Romney may not be a bad thing. I think this is just a theory so I know I'd feel a lot better if Obama had a small lead going into election day.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)I canvassed in VA last week, and the most enthusiastic Obama supporters that I came across were reluctant to get involved, too convinced that Obama will win. It took some prodding to convince them that they shouldn't just vote; they need to get their family, friends, anyone they know who are supporters to get out and work. I'm in Maryland, but I'll be in VA and PA nearly every weekend up until Election Day and on the day itself.
RedStateLiberal
(1,374 posts)I wish I could do the same but I'm hundreds of miles from the nearest swing state and feel I'd be wasting time here in wingnut Alabama. You could always point out to the reluctant ones that the polls are tight to motivate them. Keep up the good work!
Zalatix
(8,994 posts)We can't let our side become complacent. That's how 2010 happened.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)OverseaVisitor
(296 posts)The poll is a tool to shape perception.
And by now everyone here should know how the game rules are.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Again, I hope you're right and I'm wrong. I'm feeling better, though.
OverseaVisitor
(296 posts)COUNTING.
No sane human being will vote against them self, ok maybe 10% insane.
If the poll say 75% support Obama then how can Mitt win, hence you need to build up a close fight environment.
Look at the crowd, look at the republican vote switch
If trend say from own eyes things are swing to Obama then trust your own finding
SoCalDem
(103,856 posts)Media "diggers" LOATHE the self-absorbed nitwit, and they are digging into every little nook & cranny.
the more he tries to hide, the more determined they are.
What we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)most polls show Obama well below 50 and for an incumbent that is a danger signal.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)dionysus
(26,467 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)dionysus
(26,467 posts)Lex
(34,108 posts)Is that like Fox News' tactic -- "some people say . . . "
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)FLyellowdog
(4,276 posts)The CBS/NYT poll threw me into a tizzie tonight. Maybe it's time I took a step back. I have to from time to time just to keep my sanity.
Lex
(34,108 posts)And, pssssst, it was an analogy.
demwing
(16,916 posts)This is where Obama and McCain ere 4 years ago today, according to the RCP average
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/election_2012_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_today.html
Obama then = 45.9%
Obama now = 46.5%
Obama is sitting better on the RCP average today than he was 4 years ago. Don't stress.
FLyellowdog
(4,276 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)but the bottom line is that in the midst of all the talk about Bain and Romney's taxes polls came out in NH, Iowa and New Mexico showing that the president's lead has been cut dramatically. Two of the polls were from PPP a pollster I trust. What does it mean? It means that people are concerned about the economy and jobs and Obama is the incumbent and no matter what he will get a certain amount of blame. What Obama needs to do is make the case for a strong jobs program and make sure he adds that the only way we will get it is if we get a Democratic congress. Yes, keep up the outsourcing and attacks on Bain, too. But in the end it's all about JOBS & what the president is going to do to make sure we get more jobs. People need to be assured.
p.s.
as far as the CBS poll, Obama is actually doing better this time than he did in their previous poll in June. He was down by 3 in June and is down by 1 in this poll. Obama gained 3 points while Romney gained 1. So if you go by CBS poll the trend is TOWARDS Obama not away.
lame54
(35,321 posts)lunatica
(53,410 posts)We all need to take the blinders off. Polls have been rigged since at least the 2000 elections. So have votes, especially in certain States. And so is the MSM.
Once you see it for what it is then it's not hard to understand.
If you were to take a poll and you wanted it to reflect what you choose then you just lie and tell everyone that the polls reflect what you want them to. And if you're good at it you'll ask questions in such a way that the answers will reflect what you want the poll to reflect.
If you ask, "Do you agree that raising your taxes is fair?" and you answer, "No" then the pollsters can translate that into saying you don't want to raise taxes for the 1%.
BumRushDaShow
(129,442 posts)and birther/muslim/commie/marxist/socialist nonsense, that's when you know you hit pay dirt with a bullseye.
randome
(34,845 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)Hubert Flottz
(37,726 posts)They wish Bain wasn't having an impact!
Trusting a poll like the Wall Street Journal is forgetting who owns the WSJ now. Anything having to do with Brother Rupert is a scam, a sham and pure Flim-Flam.
fredamae
(4,458 posts)because if it wasn't they wouldn't be responding as "victims" and trying to dismiss the whole thing.
I believe it's very effective because it's the Truth.Secondly-Its MSM-Who are the 5 or 6 people that Own the Message we are "allowed" to receive?
Are these Corporations supporting RW Agenda's for personal profit and gain?
We cannot believe the outlandish diatribe they put "out there"-They "game us" with inferences, loaded questions, half-truths, omission of Facts/information and flat out lies. FEAR.
Think about what they Don't tell us