General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums2020 US Senate Election- Defeated Democratic incumbents seeking a rematch-
Most Likely to win to Least Likely to win.
CO (Udall-D vs Gardner-D)Tossup Democratic/Lean Democratic
NC (Hagan-D vs Tillis-R)Tossup Republican/Tossup Democratic
AK (Begich-D vs Sullivan-R) Tossup Republican/Lean Republican
LA(Landrieu-D vs Cassidy-R)Lean Republican/Likely Republican
AR (Cotton-R vs Pryor-D) Likely Republican/Solid Republican
Udall-CO,Hagan-NC and Begich-AK have a decent chance of winning a rematch.
Pryor-AR and Landrieu-LA have a zero chance of winning a rematch.
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)I've worked several campaigns (in multiple states) where the loser from last cycle seeks a rematch and he/she typically does worse the second time around. Time for some fresh blood and to build a bench.
You also might want to reconsider Kay Hagan as I don't think she's in good health right now.
nkpolitics1212
(8,617 posts)Boschwitz(R-MN) lost to Wellstone (D-MN) in
1990 by a 2 percent margin.
1996 by a 9 percent margin.
Boschwitz-R did alot worse in the rematch race.
Feingold (D-WI) lost to Johnson (R-WI) in
2010 by a 5 percent margin.
2016 by a 3 percent margin.
Feingold-D did slightly better in the rematch race.
Defeated Senate challengers seeking a rematch
Gantt (D-NC) lost to Helms (R-NC) in
1990 by a 6 percent margin.
1996 by a 7 percent margin.
Gantt-D did slightly worse in rematch race.
Shaheen (D-NH) is the only US Senator to win a rematch in 2008 after losing the first election to Sununu-R in 2002.- Phone jamming scandal.
Democrats have plenty of better candidates in CO than Udall- Hickenlooper and/or Perlmutter.
Begich-AK is the only Democrat that could win. Another option in AK is Democrats backing Walker-I and Walker-I caucusing
with the Democrats.
In NC- Democrats could nominate Cooper
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)I was there in 2013 but was on the other side of the firewall so could not get involved directly with candidates so I don't know who's on the bench there.
I've been involved with state senate races in NY and WA where the loser from last cycle wanted to run again. In both cases, the GOP incumbent was vacating the seat so it was an open seat. Still the Democrat did worse (NY--2014 and WA 2016 so it could be attributed to national trends). I've also seen similar results with NJ leg races. (All of these races are later than 2012).
Elections in 1990 and 1996 are ancient history in this political era. I was ineligible to vote (age) in both of those years. Politics was civil then.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)He would have won had it not been for the Comey intervention.