Killing the Individual Mandate Will Probably Kill Obamacare

[applegrove]

KEVIN DRUM

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/11/killing-the-individual-mandate-will-probably-kill-obamacare/

"SNIP.........


Does the individual mandate work? CBO estimates that if it’s repealed, 13 million fewer people will buy insurance. That’s something like two-thirds of all Obamacare enrollees, which means that CBO thinks it has an enormous impact. Without it, Obamacare collapses.

A few weeks ago I linked to a study of traffic fines that suggested the CBO estimate was at least plausible. But that’s all it did. Today, though, Matt Fiedler—formerly chief economist of Obama’s CEA and currently a Brookings fellow—presented some evidence about the mandate that was much more on point. He looks solely at people whose income is above 400 percent of the poverty level, which means they don’t qualify for federal subsidies. If they didn’t buy insurance before Obamacare, the only reason they have to buy it now is the mandate penalty. So did they?

......

Starting in 2014, when the mandate took effect, the number of uninsured in this group dropped by a third. As a check, nothing happened in Massachusetts, which already had a mandate.

This is strong evidence that the mandate works. These people receive no subsidies, so there was really nothing that made insurance more attractive to them when Obamacare went into effect. They started buying it because they didn’t want to pay the fine, even though they made enough money that the fine wasn’t that big a deal. For poorer people, it makes sense that the mandate penalty would have an even greater effect. When you’re poor, you really can’t afford to pay this kind of penalty, especially when you qualify for subsidies and might as well spend the money on something useful instead.

...........SNIP"

[sprinkleeninow]

1. Good, we can use emergency rooms for primary care.

That should take care of it.

[SusanaMontana41]

4. Right? Rural hospitals and those in states

that expanded Medicaid must be weighing in.

This will devastate the economy as surely as the “tax cuts” will.

[sprinkleeninow]

8. That's exactly what I thot. People will be using ERs more than ever

for minor issues in lieu of a PCP practitioner.
This'll go over big.

Whatta screwed up fiasco.

Will the volcano gonna blow soon? Don't know how much more our 'environment' can withstand.

[JaneQPublic]

2. It makes no sense that the GOP "No" votes on Obamacare repeal now support the Tax Scam.

Do they not understand that eliminating the individual mandate will sink the ACA more effectively than any of the versions of ACA repeal that they opposed?

All I can figure is that Trump and the GOP leadership in Congress sweetened the pot sufficiently to flip their votes.

[dawg]

3. Nevermind Obamacare, it's going to wreck the entire individual health insurance market.

Don't work for a huge corporation that provides you with a group plan? Well then sucks to be you. Get sick and you are bankrupted.

[SusanaMontana41]

5. It will wreck the economy. nt

[dawg]

6. It'll have an impact, for sure.

But I doubt it'll be enough to wreck the economy. How much difference can a few million unfortunate peasants make anyway?

[SusanaMontana41]

7. Right? Jesus H.

Health care is 1/6 of the economy, isn’t it? Ripples will affect everything.

[sadiegirl]

9. And lots of sick people too.

[mnmoderatedem]

10. that's the idea

they make it sound like they are killing one small aspect of Obamacare when in fact they are going after the lifeblood of the program.

All calculated, and highly transparent.