538 - Nate Silver - "Why Democrats Are Finally Pushing Franken To Resign"

[NRaleighLiberal]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-democrats-are-finally-pushing-franken-to-resign/

Three weeks ago, after Leeann Tweeden accused Minnesota Sen. Al Franken of groping her and kissing her without her consent, we argued that Democrats ought to have pushed for Franken to resign. Doing so would have allowed them to claim the moral high ground at a time when allegations of sexual misconduct had implicated both Democratic and Republican politicians — including President Trump and Roy Moore, the Republican Senate candidate in Alabama. It would also have come at a relatively small political price, since Franken’s replacement would be named by a Democratic governor and Democrats would be favored to keep the seat in a special election in 2018.

Democrats didn’t see it the same way; instead, the party line was that Franken’s case should be referred to the Senate ethics committee. But the party has since shifted gears: On Wednesday, a cavalcade of Democratic senators — first several female members, such as New York’s Kirsten Gillibrand and Hawaii’s Mazie Hirono, but eventually including party leaders such as New York’s Chuck Schumer — called on Franken to resign. Franken’s office has said he’ll make an announcement about his future on Thursday, which many reporters expect to be a resignation.

So what changed? Most obviously, several other women came forward with accusations that Franken had groped them or made unwanted advances toward them, including two new accusations on Thursday alone.

Unfortunately, this was fairly predictable: Sexual predation is often serial. (Consider, for instance, that, on Jezebel’s fairly exhaustive list of prominent men accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault, all but a handful have multiple accusers.) The lesson is that even if party leaders think that an initial allegation against one of their members may be politically survivable or morally tolerable, it will often be followed by other accusations.


snip - long, good read.

one snip from the last paragraph

Maintaining the moral high ground isn’t always easy. It means you have to hold your party to a higher standard than the other party. It means you sometimes have to make real trade-offs. But it can also pay political dividends and mitigate political risks.

[fleabiscuit]

1. Eight victims. nt

[greeny2323]

4. Correction. Claims of being a victim

Should be investigated through some due process.

[Beartracks]

26. True. This.

Last edited Thu Dec 7, 2017, 11:55 PM - Edit history (1)

Why should we believe anonymous accusations?

If that's all it takes to bring down a giant of the Senate, then yeah, if I were a Koch brother I'd start "finding" (I mean "paying" ) more women to "make accusations." Cheap investment, HUGE payoff.

===============

[Thor_MN]

50. In today's media, I think you could even say paying some "women".

We have no clue who most of these accusers are.

[Hortensis]

31. Yes.

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. Has Nate called for Trump to resign with the same gusto?

How about Moore?

[FreeState]

18. Whataboutism is a Russian tool and it gets us nowhere n/t

[Thor_MN]

51. Slashing one's wrists leads nowhere as well...

[HughBeaumont]

63. So is Trump.

[cilla4progress]

3. What we need to do now is

Go hard after trump, farenthold, Clarence Thomas - damn the entire GOP!

[still_one]

8. Honestly do you believe the Republican Congress would allow that?

[cilla4progress]

10. We dont need

Their permission.

[LisaL]

11. Sure we do. We are the minority.

[cilla4progress]

14. It doesnt only need to be achieved in

The halls of Congress. We go after them on every way and place we can!

Vote. March. Email. Call. Write.

[CTyankee]

48. and get the media to publicize it!

The show "Morning Joe" is watched by a lot of people. Rachel is watched. Chris Hayes is watched...these are mass media influencers.

[still_one]

21. The Democrats and a very small number of republicans have asked for Moore to not run. He wont

and have been calling him out since his sexual abuses became publi. The public doesn’t care about Thomas, and the Democrats have been very loud and vocal about trump’s sexism, racism, bigotry, and the allegations regarding his inappropriate sexual behavior toward women. It isn’t resonating, and it is unlikely the republicans will impeach him

Will that motivate people to the polls in 2018?

It should, but trump’s blatant racism, sexism, and bigotry didn’t motivate them in 2016

If anything motivates them it most likely will be something like the atrocious tax bill, but we will see soon enough

[delisen]

38. The question is will the Dems in the Senate go hard after Trump et al

or does their pushing out Franken signal they won't.

[standingtall]

5. No net political positive will come from this

At best it has no effect on upcoming elections and at worse it cost Democrats voters. Dumping Franken will not gain us one republican voter period. We can shout we have the moral high ground until we are blue in the face and it will not move them one bit.

[dalton99a]

12. Moral high ground and a dollar will buy you a cup of coffee at the polls

[KPN]

13. I agree.

[BannonsLiver]

6. Interesting read.

i Just can’t buy into the moral high ground argument. There’s no evidence voters place a high value on that when it matters. Any seperation the Dems might be able to get from the “both sides” malaise by forcing Franken out would be fleeting at best the way current news cycles work. Certainly not some paradigm changing moment.

[dalton99a]

7. An asymmetric standard that will help us achieve absolute purity, thus approaching invisibility

and irrelevance

While millions of Americans suffer and die at the hands of traitors and thieves.

[lostnfound]

19. I couldnt agree more! Well put!

[Duncan Grant]

32. Now thats a crystallized summation.

Thank you.

[Cosmocat]

36. Phyrrihic victory

Holding ourselves to a standard that will be meaningless to anyone else.

[crazycatlady]

49. I"m obviously in the minority at this forum

I don't see it as an asymmetric standard (although I do see that with other issues). I see it as a child saying "But everyone else is allowed to do this" when parents aren't allowing said child to do something.

If Democrats hold sexual misconduct accountable in their party (they can't control what the other side does) then it sends a message to voters that it is not ok period.

[question everything]

9. Yeah, take the "higher standard" while the Republicans are laughing at as

as suckers.

And don't be so sure that the seat will remain Democratic in a 2018 elections. Minnesota is now purple, Hillary won by only 1.5% and both houses are Republicans.

We've seen comments that the Republican party is disintegrated because of Moore. I think that the same can be said about us, because so many jumped on Franken.

[Willie Pep]

34. I am sure Roger Stone and Steve Bannon are laughing at us right now.

They knew the Democrats would wilt. And yet Trump won and Roy Moore may very well win in an election that shouldn't even be close but is.

And you are right about Minnesota. On some other liberal blogs people are saying we don't have to worry because Minnesota is a blue state. Like much of he Midwest, though, it has turned purple and is no longer a slam dunk state for us.

[fallout87]

15. Oh yeah, Nate Silver?

And what political dividends will this pay out? Fucking nothing.


Nate silver is wrong as often as he's right. He's a hack

[KPN]

16. "pay political dividends and mitigate political risks."?????!!!!!!

What dividends? People (Repugs/Indies/Greenies) are going to switch and vote for Democrats because they "took the moral high ground?" Are you frigging kidding me? Talk about pipe-dream.

Mitigate political risks? What would those be Nate? You think removing a possible blemish is going to take away the GOPs ability to attack our blemishes? Geezuz! They make them up and bozos believe them.

No wonder we keep losing at every level!

[dalton99a]

22. It's a load of stinking bullshit

[More_Cowbell]

17. It could pay dividends if the other side, and its voters, had any ethics at all.

Since they don't, I don't see any dividends. Does anyone think that the GOP voters in Alabama would vote for Doug Jones if Franken resigns? Because I don't.

[LisaL]

20. Yea, what are the dividends?

If Franken resigns, Republican's won't vote for Moore? In what Universe? So what dividends do we get except potentially losing a senate seat?

[wisteria]

24. Not going to happen.

[wisteria]

23. Bull shit. This has been a set up from the beginning, and Dems are fools

[flamingdem]

25. Gillibrand started this mess

No one wants to go up against her and her "themes". Politicians can't have such narrow themes, they need to represent all of us and in this case the voters don't want to push out one of our best voices.

We should matter more than "her career" or others who are clearly trying to show "leadership" to get nominated

[delisen]

37. Authoritarianism has infected the Democratic Party

I don't think senators from NY should decide who represents Minnesotans.


I don't thin this method of operation ends sexual harassment.

[Doodley]

27. I agree that Al Franken needs to go, and then we need to hold Trump/Moore to the same standard.

[LisaL]

28. We can only hold democrats to the standard.

Haven't you figured that out?

[Doodley]

29. What standard do you think voters prefer?

[LisaL]

30. Republcians voted for Trump even after all the accusations, so go ask them.

[Demsrule86]

42. And this is why they win...until we do the same, we lose.

[Demsrule86]

43. Well they elected a pussy grabber as president...so I don't think voters care...and Trump

and Moore will not be held to the same standard...they will win and we will lose...when we lose social security, medicare and die, I suppose we'll have our moral superiority to comfort us...yeah... and just wait until the GOP refuses to seat the replacement before the new tax vote or at all. They don't have to you know. Notice that while there is some protection for elected senators, there is none for appointed senators (Powell v.McCormack).

"Both houses of the United States Congress have refused to seat new members based on Article I, Section 5 of the United States Constitution which states that, "Each House shall be the judge of the elections, returns and qualifications of its own members, and a majority of each shall constitute a quorum to do business; but a smaller number may adjourn from day to day, and may be authorized to compel the attendance of absent members, in such manner, and under such penalties as each House may provide." This had been interpreted that members of the House of Representatives and of the Senate could refuse to recognize the election or appointment of a new representative or senator for any reason, often political heterodoxy or criminal record. Powell v. McCormack (1969) limited the powers of the Congress to refuse to seat an elected member to when the individual does not meet the specific constitutional requirements of age, citizenship or residency. From the decision by Chief Justice Earl Warren: "Therefore, we hold that, since Adam Clayton Powell, Jr., was duly elected by the voters of the 18th Congressional District of New York and was not ineligible to serve under any provision of the Constitution, the House was without power to exclude him from its membership."

[Doodley]

44. If Moore wins, that should be bad news for the GOP in 2020, not good news. The GOP

should be labeled as the party that has a sitting pedophile. Let Moore be a noose around the GOP neck.

[Demsrule86]

46. Nonsense...now we have Franken who everyone will say must have been guilty else why did he

resign...it won't hurt the GOP at all. Winning is not the best thing, it is the only thing.

[Doodley]

47. Franken admitted to acting in a disgusting manner. We need to stop defending it.

Last edited Thu Dec 7, 2017, 09:24 PM - Edit history (1)

[ChubbyStar]

56. A manor is an elaborate house n/t

[Demsrule86]

62. Oh please...the picture with Tweeden? It was a smear machine from the beginning.

She is a right wing liar and I will never stop defending one of our own unjustly accused.

[MFM008]

33. In the end we will get NOTHING

We will have our moral superiority to keep us warm
And the pussy grabbers will write
the laws that will kill us.
Good plan.

[smirkymonkey]

61. +1000

This!

[GeorgeGist]

35. Fuck. This. Shit.

[n2doc]

39. Nate going along with the RatF'ing

No dividends will be paid, except to Republicans. Just look around at DU for a lesson.

[treestar]

40. It isn't moral high ground when it is just claims!

Moral high ground would involve giving his side a chance!

Mere number of accusations doesn't mean anything. Republicans know that! That's all they need! It isn't hard to find enough people.

Anonymous accusers do not count.

[Demsrule86]

41. What a lot of bullshit...all but two of the 'accusers' are anonymous. And the two accusers are GOP

types ..one with close ties to Hannity. I would rather win than take a high road which is paved with GOP bullshit lies.

[alarimer]

45. Nate Silver has been pushing the false equivalency from the beginning.

Moore and Franken are not the same, yet he is treating them as if they are. And of course the Republicans are being held to no such standard, politically.

[dlk]

52. There Are Misdemeanors and There Are Felonies and, Unfortunately, Accusers With Hidden Agendas

They are not one and the same! When they are combined, women with legitimate claims are the losers.

[Mme. Defarge]

53. What utter, soulless

horse sh*t, if you’ll pardon my non-French.

[Farmer-Rick]

54. I heard Anti-Nazi forces refused to attempt to bomb Hitler because they wanted the Moral High Ground

NOT

Yes, when fighting evil sometimes you have to give up the moral high ground like Trump and the RepubliCONS do. You can not fight evil by claiming moral superiority, at some point you need to fight.

[110liberal]

55. treestar

great post treestar this highground stuff is not in step with the base most dems, I believe, believe in giving both sides being given a chance to present their side or respond to an anonymous source

[mountain grammy]

57. My outrage is only second to depression.

deep, dark depression. We lose Al Franken for a public hug or squeeze while assaulters are still there. Tina Dupuy hosted my favorite radio show today and I couldn't listen for long to her sounding self righteous. She was laughing about the incident.. it embarrassed her because she had gained weight and there was this roll at her waist for him to squeeze.. must have been awful. Such a traumatic experience in a room full of people while she grinned for the camera.. I'm sorry, I've always liked her but think this is all for publicity and sickening. Al had no power over her, everyone was having a good time.. sure, he shouldn't have done it, but an elbow to the ribs would have gotten his attention. He wasn't fucking mauling her!

But no, Tina. Let's wait until the fighter of the Senate, standing up to Sessions and the liars, is on the ropes and tell you stupid, trivial story.. People are losing their health insurance, we will be in a war, our economy will be in the tank, we have a president who doesn't believe all Americans should have equal rights and that's a fucking problem, but for heaven's sake, girl, if this is your biggest trauma, you are one lucky woman.

Sorry about your weight problem, Tina.

Sorry about the rant, but I feel better.

[kacekwl]

58. What a load of b.s. n/t

[Butterflylady]

59. Nate, go to ____ (fill in the blanks)

You don't know what you're talking about.

[Mme. Defarge]

60. Why am I having ptsd flashbacks

to the 2016 presidential campaign?

[Garrett78]

64. Silver is living in a universe where Republican hypocrisy hurts the Republican Party.

I'd like to visit that universe. It sounds nice. But, alas, I'm here in this universe with the rest of you all. That one where the Republican Party's epic hypocrisy hasn't prevented them from controlling the White House, US House, US Senate, a clear majority of governorships and a clear majority of state legislatures.