Democrats Will Likely Hold Frankens Seat, But Minnesotas Not As Blue As It Seems

[brooklynite]

538:

Sen. Al Franken announced on Thursday that he will resign from the U.S. Senate following multiple accusations of sexual misconduct. Once Franken officially leaves office, Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton will appoint a replacement (possibly Lt. Gov. Tina Smith) who will hold the seat through the 2018 midterm elections. In 2018, a special election will take place to determine who will hold the seat until the regularly scheduled election in 2020. Whether Dayton’s pick runs in 2018 or not,1 the eventual Democratic candidate will likely be favored to win that race — though it’s not a sure thing.

The good news for Minnesota Democrats is that the political environment is, at this point, heavily in their favor. They hold an 8 percentage point lead on the generic congressional ballot.2 If that holds through 2018 — not a bad bet — and nothing weird happens, Democrats will be favorites to hold on to the Franken seat. The last time there was no elected incumbent running in a Minnesota Senate race in this type of pro-Democratic midterm environment, for example, Democrat Amy Klobuchar won by 20 points.

The not-so-great news for Minnesota Democrats is that the state has become redder since 2006. Really, Minnesota is a purple state. Hillary Clinton beat President Trump by only 1.5 points in Minnesota — less than her 2.1-point margin in the national popular vote. In our partisan lean calculation,3 Minnesota is just 0.5 percentage points more Democratic than the nation. In other words, Klobuchar’s landslide win might have been a bit of an aberration. Back in 2008, another very good year for Democrats, Franken first won his Senate seat by just 312 votes.

This is all a slightly complicated way of saying that Minnesota is likely to stay blue in 2018, but not because of anything fundamental about Minnesota. Instead, Democrats’ advantage comes almost entirely from the friendly political environment, which can change.

[MFM008]

1. That's nice

So Frankenstein ouster is not enough...we have to lose the seat as well?
I quit reading 538 after the 2016 election.

[Wellstone ruled]

2. Yes,The DFL can hold this Seat,But,

it is all about turn out. Been down that road,watched District Six go down the Tube because of complacency.

[woolldog]

3. Sorry, but we deserve to lose the seat. nt