Doug Jones Is Just A Normal Polling Error Away From A Win In Alabama
Still, even if averaging polls gives us a better understanding of the race than looking at polls individually, that doesn’t mean the average will correctly identify the eventual winner. It’s a close race — close enough that the normal inexactness of polling gives either candidate a good chance of winning. Moore’s 3-point lead is smaller than the average error when there are only five to nine polls to average. Additionally, Moore’s average edge is smaller than the true margin of error for the average. Based on past campaigns, the true margin of error for an average of five to nine surveys is about +/- 10.4 percentage points.
Of course, Democrats shouldn’t go into Alabama assuming that a poll miss will necessarily benefit Jones. In fact, the favorite is just as likely to benefit as the underdog. Just last month, for example, Democrat Ralph Northam won the Virginia gubernatorial election by 9 points after an average of polls had him winning by only 3. An error of 6 points or more that goes in Moore’s direction could turn this race into a relative blowout.
Finally, it’s also possible that the Alabama polls are close to perfect. In the 2016 Louisiana Senate runoff, the last Senate election not to take place on Election Day, the final 21-day average was off by only 2 points. Just because the chance of a polling miss is relatively high in Alabama doesn’t mean it will occur.
The bottom line is that with less than a week to go in the campaign, Moore seems to have the edge — but he’s far from a sure thing.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/doug-jones-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-away-from-a-win-in-alabama/
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