GOP consultant: Republicans will soon fall behind independents in California

[Newsjock]

Source: Sacramento Bee

Population trends have been working against the Republican Party for so long in California that a workshop on “changing demographics” came with an air of exasperation at the state party’s biannual convention Saturday.

“1922 was a great year to be a Republican in California,” Bernd Schwieren, a senior consultant to the Assembly Republican Caucus, told a small crowd.

... The Republican Party’s registration rolls have fallen to about 28 percent statewide, and third party status is just around the corner. Schwieren expects the number of independent voters to overtake Republicans “probably within the next year or two years.”

A major part of the problem is the Republican Party’s failure to appeal to Latino voters. When Schwieren pointed out how big a percentage of the electorate Latinos now are, a man in the audience asked, “Does (that) include undocumented immigrants or not?”

Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article11675345.html

[jaysunb]

1. Feels sooo good.....

I'm so glad to have witnessed what democratic and scientific redistricting can and will do. The people driving the current destruction of America are small in number but big on strategies that disenfranchise and marginalize the will of the majority.

As California goes, I hope the rest of the nation will follow....soon.

[SkyDaddy7]

27. Maybe I am getting ahead of myself...

But it has been my experience that many of these so-called "Independents" are just Republicans through & through who choose to label themselves as "Independents"...Typically these are far more Conservative than your typical Republican as many Tea Baggers consider themselves "Independent".

So, the crazies are just hiding in the ranks of the "Independents" while the ideology of folks has not really changed.

Am I wrong??

[jaysunb]

28. Maybe...

I tend to see most Independents as misguided Democrats that believe it's both parties fault for most things. But, I do --like you--suspect that many are just right leaners hiding in the weeds.

[GOLGO 13]

29. Independents are in fact Republicans that either/and or like

To smoke/do drugs, live secretive "alternative" lifestyles but cling tenaciously to their hatred of non-whites & the poor. So not really more conservative but they really stress more about "their" individual freedom. So they want certain freedoms protected but not for everybody else. More of the FU got mine crowd.

[NBachers]

2. Stamp 'em out like weak embers of a once-raging fire.

A few more hot spots to put out, and then we'll be finished.

[KansDem]

19. That's very descriptive!

I like your style!

[Populist_Prole]

3. Well well well, let's see. Lemme guess: Their "fix" will be

-Double down on trickle-down:

More tax cuts for upper income brackets

More "free trade" deals

More tax inversion schemes

More "right-to-work" legislation

Privatization of public works

-Other ancillary "benefits" are:

Race baiting

Cutting the social safety net ( or what's left of it )

You see, they only failed because they just weren't conservative enough before.

Of course, it won't help if conservative/third-way types of the democratic party meet them half way.

[vlakitti]

4. It's the curse of Pete Wilson

When he ran for reelection for Governor some 20 years ago he demonized Latinos. It worked, briefly, and he won. Which galvanized Latinos, who began to get it that the Republicans in fact hated Latinos.

Jewish voters still overwhelmingly shun Republicans, the antisemitic party of the 20s and 30s and 40s, and that after 60 years. Something similar is likely the fate of the National Republicans, not just the California bunch.

[jmowreader]

5. Yeah, and there's a reason for this

Every one of the bastards is in Idaho now...I'm sorry California, but could you please come and take this shit back?

[BrotherIvan]

14. Hello no!

We're just starting to get back on track from Republican rule. And hopefully we'll send some good Senators to Washington in a couple of years who can help out too.

[Thor_MN]

20. They all read that the Northern Rockies were the place avoid zombies

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/statisticians-reveal-best-place-wait-out-zombie-apocalypse-180954426/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=socialmedia&utm_campaign=02272015&utm_content=smartnewszombiestats

Ironically, the GOP doesn't realize they are the zombies.

[Xipe Totec]

6. What's an independent? a closet republican. nt

[JDPriestly]

8. Not in California. I have friends who won't vote Democratic because Democrats are too

conservative. California is way ahead of the rest of the nation.

I live in a Hispanic neighborhood and love it. The people are really friendly. On the weekends, many families have big parties and invite all their relatives. No wonder my neighbors are Democrats. They are hard-working loving people as a rule. Great place to live. Good neighbors. Family oriented. Good Democrats. I have walked my precinct many times and have always been welcomed into Democratic homes.

California is a great place and a lot of that is due to the tremendous diversity we enjoy. Diversity of all kinds. LGBT, race, religion, all kinds of diversity. Makes life positive, generous and good.

[Xipe Totec]

9. So what do they vote? That's the real question. nt

[JDPriestly]

10. Democratic. Democratic. Democratic.

[Xipe Totec]

11. Really? So they don't vote Democratic, so they vote Democratic instead?

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. That's the trouble with anecdotes, they often don't make sense.

[Gormy Cuss]

17. A pleurality of CA Decline To State (independent) voters lean Democratic.

The numbers I've seen show about 40% of Decline-to-State voters lean to Democratic party candidates and 20%-30% lean to the GOP. Many other Decline-to-state voters follow smaller parties.

Here's one reference from a CS monitor story:

Roughly 20 percent of independent voters in California lean Republican and 40 percent Democratic, says Eric McGhee, a research fellow at the California Public Policy Institute.

“They call themselves independent when asked, but when elections come around and they are pressed to commit, they vote Democrat,” he adds. “It means they still hold the views of Democrats but just aren’t super excited about it. So California is still solidly blue.”

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/2014/0220/Why-more-voters-are-going-independent-in-California

Public Policy Institute of CA is a leading polling and research firm on political trends here.
ppic.org

.

[BrotherIvan]

15. California just lost its Democratic supermajority by 1

We have a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators in Washington. We have pockets of Republicans, but hopefully they will be even more marginalized. All of those damn libruls on this board are correct: Democrats need to appeal to the very liberal bent of California. Everyone I know is basically liberal, but not everyone is happy with the Party. I think this reflects the feeling nationwide.

[stillwaiting]

18. Not true. I identify as an independent even though I've always voted Democratic.

The Democratic Party today does not stand strongly for my values. The Leadership pushes a corporate/Wall-Street friendly agenda much more forcefully than anything else they do (in my opinion), and that does not reflect my values.

I am so not alone in identifying as an independent either for this reason.

[tomm2thumbs]

7. of course

[C Moon]

12. I love hearing this (especially living in California)...

but after the Dems won the past two presidential elections, I remember hearing/reading on the web/tv/L.A. Times how the Republican Party is doomed for 30 years (I wish I could find the sources)
...then, each time, the GOP comes back with gains in the house and senate—and now they control both houses.
Twice bitten, thrice shy for me.
The GOP has too much money, and until that is removed from politics, I don't think we can rest assured.

[Doctor_J]

23. The ca party won't go full on DINO like the national party has. That is the reason we're

almost dead nationally.

[C Moon]

25. Thank you!

[wolfie001]

16. Phoney t* baggerz that vote replug every time.

Stupid Goopers. Voting against their own interests because Billo told them to. He's an "independent" as well. Sure.

[fredamae]

21. OR is right behind CA

Dems/GOP and Now a New Legitimate Ind Party NAV's still have a higher number..but that may change as we near the primary's.
Both Dems/GOP are seeing a mass exodus here.
However...it's even More important to realize Ind Must Be Vetted More Carefully than either of the two "dying" major party's because Many of the Most extreme from Both sides have become Ind. We could end up worse off if "we" don't guard the hen house.
http://www.kgw.com/story/news/politics/2015/02/02/independent-party-of-oregon-says-its-now-a-major-party/22779191/

[tomsaiditagain]

22. Republican lies and hate

"Free white and over 21" is the right wing creed and they are not going to change a thing because they believe the world is flat and anyone who says different is wrong.

From Scott Walker to Ted Cruz its the RIGHT THING to do.

[former9thward]

24. Independent is the trend in most states.

In Arizona Democrats are now third, Republicans second and Indies first in voter registration.

[olddots]

26. California got trashed by Reagan

before the rest of America did so the repukian plan has been exposed .