Suffolk University Poll Shows Sanders Closing Gap on Clinton in New Hampshire
Source: Suffolk University
Sen. Bernie Sanders is beginning to show some life against Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire with the Democratic presidential primary there less than eight months away, according to a Suffolk University poll of likely Granite State Democratic primary voters.
Clinton, the former secretary of state, was the choice of 41 percent, followed by Vermonter Sanders (31 percent), Vice President Joe Biden (7 percent), former Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley (3 percent), and former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee and former Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia tied at 1 percent. Fifteen percent of likely Democrats were undecided.
Most political observers felt that Hillary Clintons large early lead among Democratic voters would eventually shrunk a bit over time, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. But in New Hampshire right now, the lead has shrunk a lot, and this is a much different Democratic primary race than we are seeing in other states so far.
The poll depicts a clear gender gap, with Clinton carrying women 47 percent to 28 percent but trailing Sanders among men 35 percent to 32 percent. Geographically, Clinton easily carried the central and highly populated southern counties of Rockingham and Hillsborough, but Sanders led 47 percent to 26 percent in the five counties in northern and western New Hampshire, including Cheshire, Coos, Grafton, and Sullivan countieswhich border his home stateand Carroll County
Read more: http://www.suffolk.edu/news/60069.php#.VYBwEflVhBc
Wilms
(26,795 posts)She can do a lot of good in the right places.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)If The U S was as homogeneous as NH HRC would have a problem but then the U S would be a shitty place to live:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/walker-bush-rubio-lead-gop-field-clinton-still-dominant.html#more
BTW, the last three presidents have all lost the homogeneous New Hampshire primary while the last six presidents have all won the heterogeneous South Carolina primary.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)That's impressive.
And I'm aware of the history regarding NH winners becoming losers. You may WANT Bernie to win there.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)I suspect that a lot of insurgent campaigns, Democratic and Republican die in South Carolina, because South Carolina voters are more representative of the party as a whole than the states that precede it on the primary calendar.
Veldrick
(73 posts)How's Sanders doing in States neighboring Arkansas?
Wilms
(26,795 posts)...let me help you make your point.
You seem to be saying that Bernie, as a New Englander, may be enjoying a home-town boost.
I would agree.
George II
(67,782 posts)First, we don't know what the numbers were in the previous poll - they aren't mentioned in the article. Did he go from 30 to 31, or 5% to 31%? A change of only a few percent would be minimal and within the margin of error.
Second, the previous poll was in March - almost three months ago and long before Sanders announced that he was a candidate. In March people didn't know if he was in or not, and he hadn't said whether he was going to run as an independent or a Democrat.
So, although Sanders "closed the gap" on Clinton, being a hypothetical candidate when the prior poll was taken, if he DIDN'T close the gap he'd be in serious trouble. This isn't an overly impressive poll result.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,913 posts)I agree this report has the flaws you point to and obviously Sanders should expect to be "closing the gap" if the last poll was in March...
But 10 points isn't an overly impressive lead for Hillary Clinton now either, and that is the more important take away.
immoderate
(20,885 posts)OTOH, some might say that pulling within ten points of the acknowledged inheritor, is quite note worthy.
--imm
Veldrick
(73 posts)immoderate
(20,885 posts)--imm
Gamecock Lefty
(700 posts)Are you sure? With all that excitement Bernie is still not leading in NH? Wow, just wow.
There is a long way to go, but I like the Hillary campaign roll-out so far. She is doing just fine and despite the media hacks and other hacks on DU, she seems to be appealing to voters.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Hawaii Hiker
(3,166 posts)cascadiance
(19,537 posts)In the one yesterday, it shows Hillary Clinton with 44% and Bernie Sanders with 32%.
This newer poll released today shows Clinton with 41% and Bernie Sanders with 31%.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/06/16/two-primary-polls-show-bernie-sanders-striking-distance-hillary-clinton/EOntAEfSS5WLS2lta2ax4K/story.html