Iowa: Carson, Trump Tie For Lead

[brooklynite]

Source: Monmouth University

The Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers finds Ben Carson and Donald Trump tied for the top spot. This marks the first time since July 26 that a poll in any of the first four nominating states has not shown Trump with a nominal lead. Not surprisingly, given the top two contenders in the poll, most Iowa Republicans prefer someone without a traditional political pedigree. At this early stage, though, the vast majority of voters say their eventual support could go to one of several other candidates in spite of their current preference.

When Iowa Republicans are asked who they would support in their local caucus, Ben Carson (23%) and Donald Trump (23%) tie for the top spot. The next tier of candidates includes Carly Fiorina (10%) and Ted Cruz (9%), followed by Scott Walker (7%), Jeb Bush (5%), John Kasich (4%), Marco Rubio (4%), and Rand Paul (3%). The last two Iowa caucus victors, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, each garner 2% of the vote. None of the other six candidates included in the poll register more than 1% support.

“These results mark a significant shake-up in the leaderboard from Monmouth’s Iowa poll taken before the first debate,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. “Carson and, to a lesser extent, Fiorina have surged, while Walker has faded into the background.”

In mid-July, Walker was the front runner in Iowa, with Trump and Carson following behind. Since then, Walker’s support has dropped by 15 points, while Carson’s has increased by 15 points and Trump’s by 10 points. Support has also increased for Fiorina by 7 points since Monmouth’s last Iowa poll.

Read more: http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/85775b52-ec99-4ad3-bbee-14826bdf86e5.pdf

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Trump, Carson, and Fiorina, the "non-politician" candidates, continue to show all the forward momentum, while bomb-thrower Cruz remains at the top of the people who've actually gotten elected to something.

[Still In Wisconsin]

1. "...while Walker has faded into the background.”

Music. Sweet, sweet music. I know the others are awful too but still.

[big_dog]

5. exactly wisconsin. walker is the one to be worried about

i dont think any of the others can win the general

[StevieM]

7. I have often said that even if Walker were to win the GOP nomination, and even if he were to somehow

win the presidency, he would still lose the state of Wisconsin. The people who have lived under him know better than anyone what a terrible president he would be.

[Still In Wisconsin]

11. He's currently at 37% favorable with 59% unfavorable here. People are finally waking up.

He loses trial heats in WI to both Clinton and Sanders.

[Fred Sanders]

2. No matter how you slice the white apple pie of GOP primary voters in Iowa and NH, it always adds up to 100% crazy.

Hammer down one Fundy Mole and there is another one instantly popping up in a different place to have whack all over again...17 GOP WackAMoles is going to keep folks busy and the media happy to play and support the game.

It is like the whole primary system was somehow rigged to be favor only the beliefs and fantasies of Fox-addled evangelical and Catholic Christian religious fanatics.

[world wide wally]

3. I hope Carson comes out and says, "I'm tied with that loser?"

[LongTomH]

4. Carson is getting some big money from somewhere

I was in Iowa Saturday with my Bernie Sanders volunteer group from Kansas City. We saw a big billboard, one of the illuminated, electronic type showing Dr. Carson. Those things cost money.

Carson might, repeat 'might' be getting his money from small donors; but, his campaign looks like a big, well-funded one.

[big_dog]

6. Sheldon Adelson maybe?

i cant remember if he was dialing for dollars at the Vegas GOP event

[Attorney in Texas]

8. This is shocking to me: 2 non-office-holders evenly share 46% of the support. Bush has lass than 1/9

of that support (he's in 6th place with just 5% support).

Rubio -- the "backup plan" for the Republican establishment as the candidate who was supposed to be able to capture a larger share of the Latino vote is doing even worse (tied for 7th at 4%).

Walker -- the candidate who is the establishment's next favorite as the person who would bridge the gap between the Tea Party and the Republican establishment has practically moved to nearby Iowa in order to improve his chances in the caucuses -- has dropped like a rock to 7%.

The wheels have come off the clown car!

[big_dog]

9. Rubio is done (too soft like Jebbie), he looks like veep material only

don't sleep on Walker yet, hes been in worse fights than this before in Wisconsin

[maxsolomon]

10. more like tied for the amount of lead in their bodies, amirite?

God save America from these clowns.