West 'ignored Russian offer in 2012 to have Syria's Assad step aside'

[bemildred]

Source: Guardian

Russia proposed more than three years ago that President Bashar al-Assad could step down as part of a Syrian peace deal, according to a senior negotiator involved in back-channel discussions at the time.

Former Finnish president and Nobel peace prize laureate Martti Ahtisaari said western powers failed to seize on the proposal. Since it was made, in 2012, tens of thousands of people have been killed and millions uprooted, causing the world’s gravest refugee crisis since the second world war.

Ahtisaari held talks with envoys from the five permanent members of the UN security council in February 2012. He said that during those discussions, the Russian ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, laid out a three-point plan, which included a proposal for Assad to cede power at some point after peace talks had started between the regime and the opposition.

But he said that the US, Britain and France were so convinced that the Syrian dictator was about to fall, they ignored the proposal.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/west-ignored-russian-offer-in-2012-to-have-syrias-assad-step-aside

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Edit: I remember some such story from back then, so much so that I was not sure if I should post it in LBN, but the Finnish ex-President making a point of it led me to think it qualified as "New".

[jfern]

1. Hillary was SoS, so she certainly deserves some of the blame for this

[Sunlei]

9. do you -really think- anyone in the 'west' 'ignored' ? or is it just a reaction to the clinton name?

search is your friend.

[okojo]

23. It sounds like the offer was too good to be true..

Russia could had used the offer to give Assad time, or to delay a Security Council vote. It sounds a bit duplicitous, given it isn’t just Assad that is the problem, but the paranoid Alawite clique that ran Syria before the civil war.

What would had been better if the Russians tried work out a truce, and some sort of deal to help mend the wounds on all sides, which meant Assad and basically the Alawite clique had to go..

Right now, Russia is trying to buy time and prop up the Assad regime, by pouring in more military advisers and much more arms, which will kill much more people.

[TubbersUK]

2. Interesting, thanks n/t

[DFW]

3. IF there is any truth to this, then it was after July 27th of that year

I spent an hour with Obama on that day, and while most of the conversation was about elections strategy, health care issues, and budget issues, we also discussed Syria specifically, and Obama said that in 2010, i.e. to years before, he had implored the Russians to work with him on a solution to Syria and that they had told him in no uncertain terms to fuck off. I doubt that Obama was making this up in a closed meeting, so shoving this in Hillary's lap is either a cheap shot or it all happened after July 27th. While this is possible, Obama was in constant contact with the Russians at the time, and they were constantly shooting him down. Why some Finn now comes forward with a new version of things, I couldn't say, but for most of the year 2012, it was, at least as far as the Oval Office was concerned, not as laid out in the article.

[bemildred]

4. I don't have an answer.

I remember such stories from back then, about the offer being turned down, rumors really, I didn't pay much attention to them then. But I believe what you say. I don't know who you are so one can't be sure, but there are rules about telling people things, and this sort of thing would seem to me to fall under those rules, so I would not assume Obama told you the truth. But it might be so, too. The main thing here is I think the charge will have to be answered with facts, which should not be too difficult.

[DFW]

5. Here was my post at the time

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125170848

We were asked to keep it off the record at the time, and I held my tongue for well over a year later, until just about everything we discussed had become public. I have received no negative feedback from the White House in the meantime, and have seen Obama a few times since, so I assume (correctly or not, I can't say) that they have no problem with me letting on what was discussed at the time. How easy it will be to verify the one or the other, I can't say. Obama had no reason to lie to me. He wasn't the one who brought up Syria, and everything else he talked about, he has remained true to. He was also very spontaneous in his conversation, as was expected, knowing he was not exactly in hostile company.

[bemildred]

6. OK. And thanks for your information, BTW. nt

[DFW]

7. In this case, I had something specific to offer

If I were only speculating, I wouldn't have posted.

[merrily]

10. Only a very limited number of people would know with 100% certainty if that happened.

You never know who starts a rumor or floats a story and why.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. It specifically says Feb 22nd; but that is quite compatible with what Obama said to you later

That the Russians had said 'fuck off' in so many words about Syria in 2010 is quite believable (I suspect he meant early 2011, because the uprising didn't start until March 2011; if he did mean 2010, then he was talking about Syria's links with terrorist groups, which is an entirely different thing from what we mean about Syira and Assad now). But the Russian attitude at the start of the civil war could quite easily be different to after it had been going a year.

What we ended up with by April 2012 was UN Security Council Resolution 2042. Which clearly had very little effect. I don't think a more positive reaction to Russian proposals in February would have made much difference.

[bemildred]

12. It's well known that Obama and Putin don't get along.

Which given their personalities and positiions in no surprise. And it is possible that the offer was still made and rejected for the reason given, since the fate of Assad still remains the sticking point.

[Nihil]

16. "the fate of Assad still remains the sticking point"

Yep ... the US is more than happy to depose the head of a sovereign country
but really doesn't like leaving them alive afterwards ... all too easy for those
nasty little secret deals of the past to "escape into the light" and they most
definitely don't want any of that to happen ...

[okojo]

24. That Finn is a Nobel Peace Prize winner...

[DFW]

30. So is Obama, for what that's worth n/t

[JackRiddler]

28. Hour with Obama?

Mind if I ask who you are, is it public?

[DFW]

29. This is old news by now, but here, again, is my post from three years ago.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125170848

[Sunlei]

8. IN 2012 russia/syria were friends & still are. assad-Syria IS Russias closest ally

Russia's role in the Syrian Civil War - Wikipedia, the free ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/.../Russia's_role_in_the_Syrian_Civil_...
Wikipedia

Apr 26, 2012 - In a historical context, the two countries have shared a close relationship, as Syria is Russia's closest Middle Eastern ally. In 1956 Syria followed Egypt in ...

How Syria Divided the World by Michael Ignatieff | NYR Daily
www.nybooks.com/.../syria-proxy-war-r...
The New York Review of Books

Jul 11, 2012 - Pro-Syrian regime supporters wave Syrian and Russian flags as they cheer a convoy .... Russia by itself is not a threat, nor is the concern with Syria legitimate.

Russian views on Syria more nuanced than they may ...
www.cnn.com/2012/07/10/world/meast/syria-russia/
CNN
Jul 11, 2012 - The Russian government shares many of the U.S. concerns about the continuing violence in Syria, but Moscow is reluctant to embrace Washington's proposals.

Why Russia is standing by Syria's Assad - BBC News
www.bbc.co.uk/.../world-europe-18462...
British Broadcasting Corporation

Jun 15, 2012 - As the United Nations warns that Syria has descended into civil war, Russia continues to back President Bashar al-Assad in the face of growing international ...

Why Russia sells Syria arms - BBC News
www.bbc.co.uk/.../world-europe-18642...
British Broadcasting Corporation

Jun 29, 2012 - The BBC's Steve Rosenberg visits an arms fair in Moscow, where Russian weaponry that could soon be wending its way to Syria performs for potential buyers.

How vital is Syria's Tartus port to Russia? - BBC News
www.bbc.co.uk/.../world-middle-east-1...
British Broadcasting Corporation
Jun 27, 2012 - The BBC's Frank Gardner examines the Syrian port of Tartus and asks just how important is it to Russia?

[bemildred]

13. Russia says wants Putin-Obama talks on Syria

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that dialogue between Moscow and Washington on solving the Syria crisis was indispensable.

Peskov made the comments when asked whether talks on Syria were possible between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama.

Russian President Vladimir Putin Tuesday strongly defended Moscow’s military assistance to the Syrian government, saying it’s impossible to defeat the Islamic State group without cooperating with the Syrian government.

Putin’s statement came amid the signs of an ongoing Russian military build-up in Syria, which the US says signals Moscow’s intention to set up an air base there.

http://atimes.com/2015/09/russia-says-wants-putin-obama-talks-on-syria/

[kelliekat44]

14. Vietnam, Iraq...same thing happened. Proposals for negotiating peace way out ignored by US. AGAIN!

When will we learn?

[polly7]

22. +1000

As well as Libya ..

[karynnj]

15. A Russian friendly version of why the Geneva June 2012 agreement and Dec talks failed?

That agreement included the goal of a transitional government as part of a plan for peace. The common reason given in the west is that Russia blocked any UN resolution on this that would have had teeth. (Here is a Washington Post article from December 2012 that makes that argument, though it also goes on to speak of the US working to consolidate the rebels.)

Here is a NYT article written at the time of the December 2012 talks initiated by the UN.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/07/world/middleeast/us-and-russia-to-meet-on-syrian-conflict.html?_r=0

Rather than take excerpts, it is pretty fascinating read with the hindsight of what was to happen. This can also be read considering the various things that HRC said in her book and in her interviews - especially the long one with J. J. Goldberg. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/hillary-clinton-failure-to-help-syrian-rebels-led-to-the-rise-of-isis/375832/ (This could be considered Clinton's own position at least retrospectively, but it is a position made with the administration's position in the background.)

The idea - Assad stepping down - was something that was postulated by the US in all the subsequent Geneva 2 attempts. An interesting observation is that whenever Obama of Kerry mentioned that Assad not being in the government was a given, they were challenged. This includes talks in the wake of the successful CW deal. This would suggest that Russia was less willing to make this concession than anything they said in 2012 - including in the June 2012 negotiations that did end with an agreement that never really held.

[bemildred]

17. News Analysis: Russia appears determined to have stronger foothold in Syria

DAMASCUS, Sept. 15 (Xinhua) -- The Russian leadership has recently upped its military support to the Syrian government, a move reflecting Moscow's determination to intervene more in the course of the Syrian conflict, analysts said.

Russian officials have recently stressed that Moscow will continue providing military aid to Damascus, noting that the military support will be accompanied by Russian specialists.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Sunday that "there were military supplies, they are ongoing and they will continue. They are inevitably accompanied by Russian specialists, who help to adjust the equipment, to train Syrian personnel how to use these weaponry."

The Russians made it clear that the military aid is aimed at combating terrorism in accordance with the international law.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-09/15/c_134627104.htm

[bemildred]

18. Putin's troubling Syria gambit

(CNN)Guess who's decided to join the conflict in Syria? Vladimir Putin's Russia. The Russian president, apparently undeterred by international sanctions and thoroughly in control of territory seized from Ukraine last year, is making a major push on Syria, the country that today is the undisputed epicenter of global strife, extremist ideology and human misery.

Russian military sales to the Syrian regime are nothing new. But in the past few days, something appears to have changed. Intelligence officials and witnesses on the ground report a sudden and sharp increase in activity, with more sophisticated weaponry, more personnel, work including the expansion of port and airport facilities, and the building of prefabricated barracks that could house an estimated 1,000 more Russian advisers or military personnel.

Most troubling of all, though, is speculation that Russia might be planning to establish a forward air operating base in Latakia, described as a stronghold of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (although Syria's envoy to Moscow dismissed such talk).

The developments have left the United States looking unprepared, unsure how to respond and confused about what exactly Putin has in mind. Remember, it was only a couple of months ago that President Obama surprised everyone by praising Putin for helping negotiate the Iran nuclear deal and suggesting that perhaps Russia's good work could now extend to finding a solution to the Syrian war.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/15/opinions/ghitis-putin-syria-plans/index.html

[bemildred]

19. How Obama and Putin could cut through the Syrian tragedy

Two people – Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin – now have the power decisively to cut through the tragic Gordian​ knot that the Syrian crisis has become, generating millions of displaced refugees with many more in prospect as civil war continues. They could only do this, if they were genuinely to agree to work cooperatively, as they briefly attempted some years ago, before a new Cold War descended on Europe. Aided by their competent Foreign Ministers, John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov, Obama and Putin could together end the Syrian agony.

My proposal here may at first sight seem utopian, but all else has failed, and the world is now on a road to increasing war in the Middle East, and rising NATO-Russia tensions generally. The world needs new thinking.

Australia could yet, perhaps under a new prime minister, become a voice of reason in the Western alliance. First we would need to shed stubborn mental stereotypes that have lately taken root throughout the NATO world.

In Syria, they are all baddies: or all goodies, depending on where you start. True, the Assad regime's deaths count against rebelling forces and civilian collateral damage caught in the crossfire of civil war is appalling. But from Assad's point of view – and he is loyally supported by Putin's Russia and by Iran on this – he is rightly defending his legitimate national government against insurrection. As did Abraham Lincoln. As Sisi​ is doing in Egypt. As Milosevic in Yugoslavia and Gaddafi in Libya tried unsuccessfully to do.

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-obama-and-putin-could-cut-through-the-syrian-tragedy-20150915-gjnd6m.html

[okojo]

25. Abraham Lincoln didn’t run a paranoid police state and used nerve gas on his own people..

Assad’s regime is more a small minority clique that has run the country since 1970, when his father took power.. This is not a federal republic in insurrection..

[thereismore]

20. Russia is deploying tanks in Syria right now. I think they want to help Asad win over ISIS. nt

[happyslug]

21. I suspect the offer was made, but the President of Syria would be Alawite.

And that would have been unacceptable to the House of Saud, who is funding ISIS. The Alawites dominate the coastal area of Syria but are weak in the interior. Assad's father tried to make the Alawites Sunni but the extent of that change is unclear, ISIS supporters call yjr Alawites all "Christians" for the Alawites were an off shoot of Shia Islam, but they also celebrate "Nowruz, Epiphany, Christmas and the feast days of John Chrysostom and Mary Magdalene". Nowrus is the start of the Persian Year, it is thus a hold over from Zoroastrianism that Persians practiced before converting to Islam after the Conquest of Persia in the 600s (Nowrus remains a holiday in Iran to this day). The other holidays are Christian Holidays, thus the attack on the Alawites for being Christians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawites

Alawites is a very closed in religious group tied in with tribal loyalty. i.e. It is a tribal belief that holds the extended tribe together. Thus the leaders of the religion can move the religion as they see fit with the rest of the tribe/religion following (Thus Assad's Father efforts to make them more Sunni in outlook seems to have had some effect).

As I said above, the Alawites will NOT give up control of Syria. They will agree to replace Assad, and Assad as the leader of the Alawite will give up the position of President if the Alawites demand it as the cost to stay in power (Power in such tribal context is always a two way street).

Thus I suspect Putin offered to remove Assad but NOT the Alawites and that was unacceptable to the House of Saud. Thus Obama was right, Putin made NO offer Obama could accept for what the House of Saud wants is control of Syria and that means the lost of control of Syria by the Alawites. Assad by himself is unimportant, but control of Syria by the Alawites is what he is willing to fight for. Assad is the tribal leader of the Alawites and that is his power base. Thus as the leader Assad would gladly resign his power IF THAT ENHANCES THE ALAWITES. Thus I suspect Assad agreed to resign, but as long as his successor was another Alawite and that is NOT what Obama wanted thus Obama viewed it as a non offer.

Thus the confusion, Obama took the Russian offer as something he would accept, it was NOT Assad giving up POWER, it was the Alawites agreeing to remove Assad but as long as the Alawites stayed in power. That was the offer the Russian made and was rejected by Obama as a non offer. Obama and the House of Saud wants the Alawites out of power not just Assad and thus Obama only wanted to hear of a offer for Assad to resign and the Alawites driven from power. What Putin Offer was the replacement of one person unacceptable to the US by another person unacceptable to the US. Thus the US did not viewed that offer as an offer for the US wants an offer where the Alawites give up power and that will never happen.

[bemildred]

26. U.S., Russian top diplomats talk amid Syria buildup

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry spoke by telephone on Tuesday with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and the conflict in Syria was on Kerry's agenda for the discussions, the U.S. State Department said.

State Department spokesman John Kirby did not immediately offer details of the call between Kerry and Lavrov. U.S. officials have indicated that Russia is increasing its military presence in Syria and have expressed concern about whether Moscow is boosting support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCN0RF0SH20150915

[agincourt]

27. They're not consistent in any way

What they told Ahtisaari and our government can be two completely different things..