John Kerry: Syria Ceasefire Could happen within weeks

[karynnj]

Source: AP

A ceasefire between Syria's government and opposition could be just weeks away from reality, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Tuesday as he visited Paris to show solidarity with France after last week's attacks.

Speaking to reporters at the residence of the U.S. ambassador to France, Kerry said the ceasefire envisioned by the political process agreed upon in Vienna on Saturday would exponentially help efforts to fight the Islamic State group, which has claimed responsibility for the Paris attacks that killed 129 people, as well as end the drawn-out Syrian conflict, which has gone on for over four years.

"That's a gigantic step," Kerry said. "If we can get that done, that opens up the aperture for a whole bunch of things. We're weeks away conceivably from the possibility of a big transition for Syria, and I don't think enough people necessarily notice that. But that's the reality."

"We are not talking about months, we are talking about weeks hopefully," he said.

Read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/john-kerry-syria-ceasefire-could-happen-within-weeks_564b18f2e4b06037734aa08e

---

The announcement this weekend in Vienna by the Kerry and his peers -- and the endorsement by the leaders at the G20 were a big deal -- if they are able to work it out. Note that in this article, the importance is not just to end the bloody civil war - but to then be able to all work together on ISIS.

[randys1]

1. I have no doubt nothing good could ever come from any con in charge of this, and that

between John and Barack, we got this.

It may be messy and take a while, but the alternative of having neocon or just con rah rah war is not an option.

[former9thward]

6. No it was Putin.

He now calls the shots in Syria. Putin wants Assad. Obama said Assad must go. Assad is staying which says it all.

[PSPS]

8. If all goes as agreed, Assad stays for a max 18 months unless he wins a real election.

This is a big deal. With Russian planes being blown out of the skies and the Paris disaster, the powers realized that this had to stop now and, so, it just very well might. Assad is Russia's problem and they'll tell him what he has to do. Assad would have been killed a long time ago without Russia and he realizes he has to do what they say. He literally cannot live without their support.

A coalition government is promised very soon too, perhaps this year. Normally, such promises are casually dismissed as empty but, this time and under these circumstances, plus with Russia on board, this all looks very good. Maybe, for once, the adults are taking care of business.

[frazzled]

2. Kerry continues to be a very effective Secretary of State

His negotiating skills appear to be superb. This was the spot he should have had all along.

[MBS]

9. " " " " n/t

[mazzarro]

24. IMHO Kerry seems to be the best SOS in recent history - n/t

[riversedge]

25. yes. and yes.

[yeoman6987]

3. So these dumb governors are showing themselves for nothing. So typical.

Haha. They made themselves look bad and we won't even get refugees if this is settled.

GOP.........dummies.

[4139]

4. aka: Assad wins

[karynnj]

5. Not necessarily - he wins only if the majority of Syrians want him and he is allowed to run

That is not a done deal and one point in the Vienna agreement is that expats of Syria can vote. If he is allowed to run and he looks like he can win, I suspect that a deal for him might be an agreement to not be involved in return for not being indicted for war crimes. That would be a tough decision - for him and the west, who feel he is a war criminal.

[Agnosticsherbet]

7. If Syria had a stable government, ISIS would not be a problem.

They Syrian people should have the right to choose their government. But a failed state in Syria has led directly to the Caliphate formerly known as ISIS and the worst refugee disaster since WWII.

[karynnj]

16. A failed state in Syria, with disaffected Sunnis, many of whom were in Saddam's military, across

the border in Iraq. Maliki continually reduced the power of the Sunnis until they were without any power. Many of the Sunni tribes actually existed on both sides of the border drawn (by Europeans) to define Syria and Iraq.

Back over a year ago, the first step in our involvement against ISIS was to say that unless Iraq formed a more inclusive government from those elected in the then recent election, there was no way to counter ISIS. They moved - grudgingly in that direction. A big problem here is that even if the world could defeat ISIS, it works only if there is at least moderately acceptable governance in both countries.

[geek tragedy]

18. Yep. Oh well. Least horrific option.nt

[DCBob]

10. I think there was a secret deal with the Russians.

Its fine if it results in getting rid of the ISIS monsters.

[Andy823]

11. I agree

ISIS has become a world wide problem, and we need to do whatever it takes to bring other countries into stopping them. They are pissing of a whole lot of different groups, and that should help bring everyone together to stop them.

[DCBob]

12. There might be some strange side benefits from this horrific event.

It would appear both Russia and Iran are now sort of our "allies".

[geek tragedy]

19. Not really. Russia isn't even anti-ISIS right now. nt

[karynnj]

22. I think you are wrong here -- and not just because the bombed plane

Russia has had long term problems with terrorism from places like Chechnya, where some of the foreign fighters are from. If you look at the map, Russia borders a lot of Sunni Muslim countries, where ISIS could spread to. This is personal to them as well as to Europe.

Now, it is true that they had two purposes in Syria -- and they concentrated on backing Assad by hitting rebels fighting ISIS and Assad more than ISIS. I think that changed radically in recent days. They have been hitting Raqqah.

[DCBob]

21. Russia just bombed them earlier today.

I assume that means they are anti isis.

[karynnj]

13. I would not be surprised - and no matter which side suggested it - if it works to end

the bloody nightmare, it will be for the good. Not to mention if it is a secret deal - it has to have something for each side - or the other side would not have agreed. If they can get some inclusive government that is not bombing their own countrymen -- and the Iraqi government increases its inclusiveness - there is a government on each side that could govern as ISIS "disappears". The joint press availablitity of Lavrov and Kerry was interesting - especially as both were willing to speak of disagreements as well as common ground. http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/11/249515.htm

I wonder if a truth and reconciliation in each country might be needed down the road - after there is no land ruled by ISIS. This seems to be what Sri Lanka is doing now after their terrible civil war. Both Syria and Iraq may need to do this too as they go forward.

[DCBob]

14. I would love to know what the deal was.

I wonder if we told Putin... ok.. Assad can stay.. for now.

[karynnj]

15. In September, Kerry was quoted as saying the timing of him leaving was not fixed

http://www.wsj.com/articles/john-kerry-eases-demands-on-syrian-presidents-departure-1442672253

To me, there has always been a bit of dissonance between saying that the Syrians must select their leaders -- and saying Assad has to go. At this point, it seems the future of Assad is in the "too hard" to determine bucket. Russia weakened its position too -- saying that Assad does not have to stay - http://bigstory.ap.org/article/605efbb53dd54e16b7cc91caf6b322c0/russia-trying-syria-talks-moscow

From this, one conjecture might be that Assad - who is arguably a war criminal - will step down, but the new government might basically be allied with Russia - as Assad was - with the major provision that the Sunnis be included too.

This interview today by Kerry with the BBC is interesting - esp when he speaks of Russia and Assad. http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/11/249577.htm

[geek tragedy]

20. We told Putin okay you win but don't humiliate us.

Assad will remain president for life, with some Potemkin elections to give him the appearance of legitimacy.

Syria as a single functional state no longer exists. We're looking at partition.

[Botany]

17. John Kerry is the man

nice to see grown ups @ work

[underpants]

26. No kidding

If this works out - WOW what a year

[ForPeace]

23. This is great news!

k & r