Iowa Polling Results (Hillary +11%)

[onehandle]

Source: Gravis Non-Partisan Marketing

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http://www.oann.com/polliowa

Read more: http://www.oann.com/polliowa

[Iliyah]

1. K & R

[riversedge]

2. Happy to give it the big 5 REC

[JimDandy]

3. KEEP GOING Bernie supporters! We know the polling isn't reflectin what we're hearing on the ground.

Eyes forward and make sure every Bernie caucus voter has at least two other people in tow with them. Onward!

[zentrum]

15. You're right!

[JimDandy]

16. Well, it IS a Gravis poll... No use paying attention to it. We have more important work to do. n/t

[Jarqui]

4. It's Gravis

they specialize in outliers that favor Clinton

Not to worry

[Health Wagon]

5. Gravis..

Uh-huh.

Bernie in a blowout

[lunamagica]

6. K&R. Go Hillary!

[riversedge]

7. Looky at all the youngins in this poll!!

[mhatrw]

8. Down from +19% by this same polling group two weeks ago. nt

[dsc]

9. frankly Gravis has had some high profile errors

which makes me not the most keen on them. they are telling me what I want to hear, but it is hard to know if they are telling the truth. I decided to take a look at their record on Iowa, they didn't poll the Senate race in 2014, there the Register had the best poll by far. The had the margin very close and the percents for each candidate were also very close. They were the third best company in 2012 for Iowa in the presidental (Marist was top with 6 Register was second with 5 with Gravis third with 4 actual win 5.8 for Obama). I can't find anything on caucuses. So I guess who knows.

[BlueMTexpat]

25. Same here. I love the result

but take it with a grain of salt.

Still, I am very optimistic for Hillary's chances in IA.

[litlbilly]

10. OHhhh Gravis, yeah real great poll

[reflection]

11. Gravis.

And that has nothing to do with who I think will win, because I have no idea. But Google Gravis here on DU, it's a total dumpster fire.

[silvershadow]

12. Actual poll in 3 days. nt

[OhZone]

13. "Outlier?"

Oh, I don't know. How about a trend?

[trillion]

24. So if this poll were right, at the caucases the omally supporters will be talked out of him.

Where will they vote. I suspect they went to omally because they knew better than hillary.

[OhZone]

29. Wut? nt

[OhZone]

30. Oh, I get it -

Where will the O'Malley voters go?

Probably split, since they didn't support either to begin with.

But then again, maybe they'll to to the Democrat.

[trillion]

31. Right, and since the Democrat is Bernie - Hillary consitently voted for the Republican

agenda while she was in congress and a whole lot of us dems are able to remember that. I expect them to vote for Bernie.

[OhZone]

33. Oh, if had really wanted to be a Democrat and had been a Democrat -

he would have been better off in this election.

[trillion]

35. He describes himself as a socialist democrat. I describe my self an an educated voter.

I take it you have a problem with the word, "socialist" so much that you think it nullifies him being a Democrat?

[OhZone]

37. I thought it was democratic socialist -

Also he is an Independent. I thank him for joining with the Democrats in the Senate. But still -

[BlueMTexpat]

26. Exactly. eom

[Ellipsis]

14. 45% identify as evangelical... yet Iowa demographics reports 28%

Methinks this is a fucked up poll.

[pandr32]

17. Woo-hoo!

[George II]

18. Many people are going to be surprised with the result on Monday night......

....polls don't take into account the location of the people they poll. Sanders' support is concentrated in a few districts in Iowa, Clinton's support more widely located around the state.

[Dawson Leery]

20. +1

[sheshe2]

21. ;)

[Des Moines De Mon]

19. Gravis?

Really?

[Samantha]

23. Gravis is rated "C" by Nate Silver

Probably lucky to get that....

Sam

[Art_from_Ark]

36. Probably a "Gentleman's C"

[Purveyor]

22. Gravis, indeed. 'Any port in a storm'...I guess. eom

[Depaysement]

27. Gravis lacks gravitas

Based on past performance.

[bowens43]

28. polls are meaningless besides she will probably be under indictment by the GE

can someone facing federal charges be on the ballot? would that be wise?

[Liberal_in_LA]

32. ..

[RoccoR5955]

34. So they polled voters of ALL parties

And the result is this?
Hmm, something doesn't seem correct if they are polling RepubliCONs about which Democratic candidate they like best. Does this mean that the one like the best would be easiest to defeat? Well they are clearly 1/3 of the voters and 1/3 of 53% is about 17.6, let's call it 18%. Now when we subtract this 18% from 53% we get 35%. So theoretically, Clinton leads Sanders 35% to 42%, for a total lead of -7%.
Interesting. Very interesting.
Now I hope that this exercise has shown at least some folks about how these numbers can be manipulated.

[thesquanderer]

38. Gravis failed... way outside their 3% margin of error

Even allowing for the fact that caucus results don't directly mirror the actual vote, this wasn't even close.

And this was conducted Jan 26-27, so pretty darn close to the election day.