Trump Presidency Is a Global Threat, Economist Intelligence Unit Warns

[IDemo]

Source: NBC News

A British research organization has warned that a Donald Trump presidency could have a dangerous impact on the world economy, increasing the potential of Islamic terror attacks and of a trade war with Mexico and China.

The Economist Intelligence Unit released its updated global risk assessment, ranking the election of Trump a 12 on a scale of one to 25 — the same number it assigned to the possibility that jihadi terrorism would destabilize the global economy.

The firm pointed to a number of reasons, including Trump's hostility toward free trade, his accusing China of being a "currency manipulator, his advocating the killing of terrorists' families, and his proposal to move troops into Syria to fight ISIS and take its oil.

This appeared to be the first time the EIU had rated a presidential candidate's election as a global risk, the firm told Politico.

Read more: http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-presidency-global-threat-economist-intelligence-unit-warns-n540416

[pampango]

1. From the risk assessment: Trump is the only candidate deemed dangerous enough to be included.

Global risk

Donald Trump wins the US presidential election
Moderate probability, High impact
March 17th 2016

Introduction

The businessman and political novice, Donald Trump, has built a strong lead in the Republican party primary, and looks the firm favourite to be the party's candidate in the US presidential election in November.

Analysis

Thus far Mr Trump has given very few details of his policies - and these tend to be prone to constant revision - but a few themes have become apparent. First, he has been exceptionally hostile towards free trade, including notably NAFTA, and has repeatedly labelled China as a "currency manipulator". He has also taken an exceptionally right-wing stance on the Middle East and jihadi terrorism, including, among other things, advocating the killing of families of terrorists and launching a land incursion into Syria to wipe out IS (and acquire its oil).

In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war - and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016. His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.

Conclusion

Although we do not expect Mr Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn. It is worth noting that the innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress - albeit such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.

https://gfs.eiu.com/Article.aspx?articleType=gr&articleId=2876

This risk assessment downplays Trump's chances to beat the Democratic nominee - absent a "sudden economic downturn" or a terrorist attack - but that the risk to the world of his election is "high impact". Since ISIS may understand that Trump's policy would good for their organization in the long run - suck the US further into Syria in a ground campaign and show the West as "anti-Muslim", it could decide to schedule an attack for before the election to help his election prospects.

[Dan]

2. I don't know if this will hold

"It is worth noting that the innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr Trump, ..." will remain true. THE GOP has always been able to support their own, regardless of the impact to the nation. The GOP puts their party before the Country.

[Angel Martin]

3. "In the event of a Trump victory,

his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war - and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership..."


that would be tragic.

[jtuck004]

4. The real estate swindler should be careful. If I had any designs about attacking this country

as a foreign power, I would fire a missile the day that buffoon takes the oath. How many people do you think will die for him?

He must know, when an enemy soldier comes, I will point the way to his house.